Week ending Saturday 31 October 2026. Preliminary auction data across the five mainland capitals: 2,045 scheduled auctions, 583 sold, a pooled TRUE clearance rate of 28.5% against a pooled headline of 45.5% — a deception gap of 17.0 percentage points. Total disclosed auction value $502.0 million.
This is the lowest pooled TRUE clearance rate of the spring campaign, in a week that was supposed to be the market's best shot before the Reserve Bank meets again.
| City | Official CR | TRUE CR | Scheduled | Reported | Sold | Withdrawn | Passed In | Median | Total Value | Gap | WD % | Unreported | YoY CR | Price Withheld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 48% | 28.0% | 985 | 571 | 276 | 208 | 87 | $1,490,000 | $245.7m | 20.0pp | 21.1% | 42.0% | 68% | 50.9% |
| Melbourne | 56% | 37.1% | 574 | 382 | 213 | 73 | 96 | $921,000 | $183.3m | 18.9pp | 12.7% | 33.4% | 63% | 22.8% |
| Brisbane | 19% | 12.4% | 225 | 147 | 28 | 14 | 105 | $1,307,500 | $34.6m | 6.6pp | 6.2% | 34.7% | 60% | 41.5% |
| Adelaide | 32% | 21.4% | 159 | 106 | 34 | 13 | 59 | $975,000 | $22.0m | 10.6pp | 8.2% | 33.3% | 70% | 44.4% |
| Canberra | 41% | 31.4% | 102 | 79 | 32 | 26 | 21 | $970,000 | $16.4m | 9.6pp | 25.5% | 22.5% | 61% | 54.5% |
| Pooled | 45.5% | 28.5% | 2,045 | 1,285 | 583 | 334 | 368 | — | $502.0m | 17.0pp | 16.3% | 37.2% | — | — |
| City | Official CR | TRUE CR | Withdrawn % | Scheduled | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 45% → 48% (+3) | 25.2% → 28.0% (+2.8) | 20.8% → 21.1% (+0.3) | 885 → 985 (+11%) | $1.650m → $1.490m |
| Melbourne | 56% → 56% (0) | 41.4% → 37.1% (−4.3) | 11.9% → 12.7% (+0.8) | 838 → 574 (−31%) | $1.181m → $921K |
| Brisbane | 20% → 19% (−1) | 13.5% → 12.4% (−1.1) | 8.0% → 6.2% (−1.8) | 200 → 225 (+13%) | $1.100m → $1.308m |
| Adelaide | 28% → 32% (+4) | 17.8% → 21.4% (+3.6) | 5.3% → 8.2% (+2.9) | 152 → 159 (+5%) | $1.100m → $975K |
| Canberra | 46% → 41% (−5) | 31.8% → 31.4% (−0.4) | 21.2% → 25.5% (+4.3) | 66 → 102 (+55%) | n/a → $970K |
| Pooled | 46.3% → 45.5% | 30.1% → 28.5% (−1.6) | 15.0% → 16.3% (+1.3) | 2,141 → 2,045 (−4%) | — |
1. The CPI on Wednesday killed the reprieve, and this report is written from inside the dead zone. The Australian Bureau of Statistics released September-quarter CPI on Wednesday 28 October. Trimmed mean inflation came in at 3.7% year-ended — the highest reading since the June quarter of 2024 — on a quarterly rise of 1.0%. Headline CPI printed 4.3% year-ended against 4.0% in August. Within hours, all four major banks had moved to a single forecast: a 25 basis point hike to 4.85% on Tuesday 3 November. That would be the fifth increase of 2026 and the highest cash rate since the Global Financial Crisis. The Reserve Bank Board meets in three days. Every number in this report was struck by buyers and vendors who already knew the CPI and did not yet know the decision. That is the most informative condition the market has been in all year — and what it produced was 2,045 scheduled auctions and 583 sales.
2. Sydney sold more homes — and it is the only genuinely good number in the country. Sold volume rose from 223 to 276 (+24%) on a base that grew 11%. TRUE clearance improved 2.8 points to 28.0%. That is a real improvement in throughput, and it is the second consecutive week of gains. But read the composition: withdrawals rose to 208, or 21.1% of everything scheduled — the highest since May — and 42.0% of scheduled auctions were never reported at all. Sydney is converting more stock into sales at the same time as it is pulling more stock off the market. That is not a market clearing; it is a market bifurcating into properties that sell and properties that are quietly removed.
3. Melbourne's volume collapsed 31% — do not read it as demand. Scheduled auctions fell from 838 to 574, and TRUE clearance fell 4.3 points to 37.1%. Two forces are operating here, and neither is a demand signal. First, Derby Day — the Saturday before the Melbourne Cup — removed an entire tier of prestige and inner-suburban stock from the calendar, exactly as the AFL Grand Final did in September. Second, the reserve-price disclosure regime enforced since 16 October continues to suppress listing volume, because vendors who cannot publish a credible reserve choose not to list at all. Melbourne remains the only capital where a buyer can obtain a published reserve seven days before the hammer — and the honest reading is that a 37.1% TRUE clearance on a Derby Day base is roughly flat, not deteriorating.
4. Brisbane has broken the tape — 12.4% TRUE is the worst reading any capital has produced in 2026. Of 147 reported results, 105 were passed in — a 71% pass-in rate. Just 28 properties sold from 225 scheduled. Kollosche brought 18 listings to market and sold two. Ray White Ascot brought 14 and sold none. Raine & Horne Hervey Bay brought 10 and sold none. The median apparently rose to $1,307,500 — ignore it: it is struck on 28 sales and dominated by a $7.3m New Farm riverfront and a $6.2m Kenmore Hills acreage. Remove those two and Brisbane's auction median is closer to $1.1m. The Brisbane auction method is not failing to find buyers; it is failing to find reserves that buyers will meet.
5. Canberra's withdrawal crisis is back, and it is now the most acute in the country. Withdrawals jumped to 26 of 102 scheduled (25.5%) against only 8 postponements — a postponement-to-withdrawal ratio of 0.33:1, the deepest withdrawal-crisis reading of any capital this week. Volume more than doubled (66 → 102) as spring stock finally arrived, and one in four of those vendors pulled the property. Last week we noted Canberra had produced a single week of relief at 49.3% TRUE and warned that one week was noise. This week confirms it: TRUE settled at 31.4%, and the capital's correction is not finished.
The pooled headline clearance rate of 45.5% sounds like a market operating at roughly half-capacity. It is not. 583 properties sold from 2,045 scheduled — 71.5% of every auction scheduled this week did not produce a sale. The headline holds at 45% because Domain's methodology excludes postponed listings and, in practice, a large share of never-reported results. Add Sydney's 42.0% unreported rate to its 50.9% price-withheld rate on sold stock, and a buyer in Australia's largest market this week could establish a verified price on roughly one property in six.
The macro backdrop has turned decisively. Trimmed mean inflation at 3.7% is not a rounding error — it is the highest core reading in nine quarters, it is rising, and it is rising while headline sits at 4.3%. The Reserve Bank has spent 2026 tightening into a housing correction it did not cause and cannot stop: February to 3.85%, March to 4.10%, May to 4.35%, September to 4.60%, and now a near-certain 4.85% on Tuesday. Borrowing capacity has been cut by roughly a quarter since the cycle began. The market is now pricing property off a mortgage rate that starts with a 6, not a 5.
Cotality's latest Home Value Index — the September edition, released 1 October — recorded the sixth consecutive monthly fall at −1.1% national, taking values 5.2% below the March 2026 peak, with the national median at $899,236. The quarter was −3.7%, the year exactly 0.0%. Brisbane (−1.5%) and Sydney (−1.4%) led the decline; Darwin (+0.4%) was the only capital to rise. The October HVI lands on Monday 2 November — the day before the RBA — and will be the first read on whether another hike was already being priced into values in October.
Three events in six days decide the next quarter of Australian housing: CPI (done, hot), Cotality October HVI (Monday), RBA decision (Tuesday). A buyer writing a cheque this week is buying into an information vacuum with a rising cost of capital. That is not a reason to wait — it is a reason to negotiate like the market owes you money.
Sydney scheduled 985 auctions — the largest weekly volume since early September and 11% above last week — and reported 571. Of those, 276 sold, 208 were withdrawn and 87 passed in. The 48% headline flatters a 28.0% TRUE clearance rate by 20.0 percentage points, the widest deception gap of any capital this week.
Listing-level extraction across 354 suburb articles and 796 individual listings shows 226 postponements against 182 withdrawals — a postponement-to-withdrawal ratio of 1.24:1, down from 1.34:1 last week and 1.55:1 the week before. That is now three consecutive weeks of decline in the ratio, and the mechanism is consistent: withdrawals are climbing in absolute terms (184 → 208) while postponements hold roughly flat (229 → 226). The deferral queue is converting into capitulation at a steady rate of about 0.1 turns per week. If that pace holds, Sydney crosses into withdrawal-crisis territory (ratio below 1.0) before Christmas.
The single most important observation this week is at the top of the market. The trophy end reopened. The largest disclosed auction sale was 19 St Thomas St, Bronte at $11.95m, followed by 1 Nelson Pde, Hunters Hill at $7.8m, 10/1-2 Tower St, Manly at $6.7m — a beachfront apartment — 16 Argyle Av, Ryde at $4.362m and 4/1 Avoca Dr, Avoca Beach at $4m. Last week the top Sydney sale was $4.28m and we wrote that the eight-figure market was sitting on its hands. It was not sitting on its hands; it was waiting for the CPI. The prestige buyer is now the only cohort in the market with the equity buffer to ignore a 25 basis point move — and it showed up the week the CPI landed.
The median tells the same story from the other direction. Domain's median fell to $1,490,000 from $1,650,000, and the median of disclosed prices was $1,370,000 across 155 of 316 sold listings. That $120,000 wedge is the most useful number in this report: it proves the 50.9% of sold properties with withheld prices were systematically more expensive than the disclosed ones. When prestige sells and hides its price, the published median understates the top and the disclosed median understates the market. Both numbers are true and neither is the market.
The veteran's read: I have bought through four of these cycles and this is the phase where the money is made, and almost nobody is making it. Sydney is producing 276 genuine sales in a week with 208 vendors pulling out. That ratio — 1.5 sales for every withdrawal — is the signature of a market where the sellers who price to the market transact and the sellers who price to last March disappear. If you are bidding, your competition is now one other buyer and a vendor's memory. If you are selling, the memory is the problem.
Melbourne scheduled 574 auctions and reported 382. Of those, 213 sold, 73 were withdrawn and 96 passed in. The 56% headline against a 37.1% TRUE clearance leaves an 18.9 point gap — the second widest in the country and, notably, wider than last week's 14.6 points.
Volume fell 31% week-on-week (838 → 574). Two things caused it and neither is weak demand. Derby Day — the Victoria Derby at Flemington, the traditional opening of Melbourne's spring racing carnival, held on the Saturday before the Melbourne Cup — strips prestige and inner-suburban stock from the auction calendar in the same mechanical way the AFL Grand Final did on 26 September. And the reserve-price disclosure regime, enforced since 16 October, requires reserves to be published at least seven days before auction; vendors unwilling to commit to a number simply do not schedule. Melbourne's auction market is now structurally smaller and structurally more honest than it was six weeks ago.
Listing-level extraction across 217 suburb articles and 470 individual listings shows 77 postponements against 71 withdrawals — a ratio of 1.08:1, essentially balanced. That is the healthiest reading of any major capital this week and it is materially better than Sydney's 1.24:1. Melbourne vendors are neither parking stock nor capitulating; they are doing roughly equal amounts of both.
The regional detail confirms the disclosure effect. South East Growth sold 14 of 18 listings (78%) with a single withdrawal — the strongest region in the country this week. Inner East sold 59% of 39 listings with only a 13% withdrawal rate. CBD/Inner sold 57% of 21. And the weakness is exactly where you would expect it: West Growth sold 5 of 22 (23%) with 8 postponements — a 2.67:1 postponement ratio in Tarneit, Truganina, Werribee and Melton, where the buyer is a first-home buyer whose borrowing capacity has been cut hardest by four hikes.
The top sale was 38-40 Airlie St, South Yarra at $4.9m, then 16 Fosbery Av, Caulfield North at $2.81m, 6 Isabella Gr, Hawthorn at $2.7m (passed in on a maximum bid) and 3 Grimwade Ct, Caulfield North at $2.69m. Note the difference from Sydney: Melbourne's top sale is $4.9m, not $11.95m. Melbourne has no trophy market operating at auction this week. Its prestige stock is either selling privately or not selling.
The veteran's read: Melbourne's clearance rate fell 4.3 points and I am telling you the market improved. The reason is that the composition changed, not the demand. On a full-volume weekend Melbourne ran 41.4% TRUE; on a Derby Day base with 31% less stock it ran 37.1%. Strip the calendar and those are the same market. What has genuinely changed is price discovery: for the first time in this cycle a Melbourne buyer can walk into an auction knowing the reserve. That is worth more to you than three points of clearance rate.
Brisbane scheduled 225 auctions and reported only 147. Of those, 28 sold, 14 were withdrawn and 105 were passed in. The 19% headline gives a 12.4% TRUE clearance — the worst reading of 2026 in any capital — with a 6.6 point deception gap.
The pass-in rate is the number that matters. 105 pass-ins from 147 reported results is 71%. Four in five scheduled auctions either did not report or did not sell. And the agency data shows this is not a vendor-by-vendor problem, it is systemic: Kollosche brought 18 listings and sold 2 (11% push-through); Ray White Ascot brought 14 and sold 0; Raine & Horne Hervey Bay brought 10 and sold 0; Ray White Cairns and Cairns Beaches brought 11 and sold 1; Ray White Wilston brought 11 and sold 1. When the largest and most reputable agencies in a market all convert under 12% of their auction books, the method is broken, not the agents.
Unusually, Brisbane's stress is not showing up as withdrawals. Withdrawal rate is only 6.2% — among the lowest in the country — and no Brisbane suburb recorded four or more withdrawals-plus-postponements. Brisbane vendors are not pulling stock; they are holding it at auction and watching it pass in, then negotiating afterwards. That is a slower, more expensive form of capitulation, and it explains why Brisbane's median rose to $1,307,500 while clearance collapsed: post-auction negotiations are settling at higher prices than the auction reserve, and only the properties that clear are counted in the median.
The top sales were 41 Bailey St, New Farm at $7.3m, 240 Tinarra Cr, Kenmore Hills at $6.2m, then a long drop to 37 Tarm St, Wavell Heights at $2.115m and 234 Long St E, Graceville at $1.9825m. Two sales above $6m in a market that sold 28 properties total is a compositional distortion, not a signal.
The veteran's read: Brisbane is where Sydney was in early September. The pass-in rate is the leading indicator; withdrawals follow three to five weeks later as vendors exhaust their post-auction negotiation window. If you are buying in Brisbane, the next four weeks are the window — vendors are still emotionally committed to auction and have not yet repriced. Make offers before the auction, in writing, at 8-12% below the guide, and be prepared to walk. The pass-in statistics say your offer will be the only one on the table.
Adelaide scheduled 159 auctions and reported 106. Of those, 34 sold, 13 were withdrawn and 59 passed in. The 32% headline gives a 21.4% TRUE clearance, up 3.6 points from 17.8% last week and the best week-on-week TRUE improvement of any capital.
Withdrawals remain remarkably low at 8.2% (13 properties) and the postponement-to-withdrawal ratio is 0.67:1 — technically withdrawal-crisis phase, but on numbers so small that the classification is meaningless. Only 13 vendors out of 159 pulled their property. No Adelaide suburb recorded four or more withdrawals-plus-postponements. Adelaide is not a stressed market; it is a slow one.
The pass-in rate is the issue: 59 of 106 reported (56%). Vendors are setting reserves above what the market will pay, but unlike Brisbane they are not losing the buyers — 34 sales and a median of $975,000 against last week's $1.100m. The price-point table shows the market clearing across the full band: 31 Church Av, Norwood $2.951m, 17 Swaine Av, Rose Park $2.26m, 26 Park Av, Rosslyn Park $1.55m, 14 Tarpeena Av, Windsor Gardens $1.355m, 40 Lionel Av, Blair Athol $1.34675m, and at the bottom Salisbury Downs $645k, Brahma Lodge $700k, Parafield Gardens $720.5k. That is an intact market clearing from $645,000 to $2.95 million in a single week.
Note the inversion in Adelaide's price data: Domain's median is $975,000 but the median of the 20 disclosed prices is $1,020,500. In Adelaide the withheld prices were cheaper than the disclosed ones — the opposite of Sydney. Sellers at the affordable end are the ones hiding their results.
The veteran's read: Adelaide is the last capital in Australia where the auction method is doing what it was designed to do — discover a clearing price across a wide band without mass withdrawal. It is also the market most exposed to a November hike, because its affordability advantage is precisely what has been driving migration into it. Watch Adelaide's first-home-buyer suburbs — Salisbury, Elizabeth, Parafield Gardens, Mawson Lakes — over the next three weeks. That is where a 4.85% cash rate bites first.
Canberra scheduled 102 auctions — more than double last week's 66 as spring stock finally landed — and reported 79. Of those, 32 sold, 26 were withdrawn and 21 passed in. The 41% headline sits above a 31.4% TRUE clearance for a 9.6 point gap.
The withdrawal rate is 25.5% — crisis territory by any threshold — and critically, only 8 properties were postponed against 26 withdrawn, a ratio of 0.33:1. That is the lowest postponement-to-withdrawal ratio of any capital this week, and it means Canberra vendors are not deferring; they are exiting. When volume doubles and one in four new listings is pulled before the hammer, the market is being told something unambiguous by the people who know their own properties best.
The agency data is stark. Ray White Canberra brought 21 listings and sold 10 (48%) with a 10% withdrawal rate — the best book in the city and the reason the headline holds at 41%. Momentum Property brought 14 and sold 5, but withdrew 6 (43%). Strip out Ray White Canberra and the rest of the city cleared roughly one property in five.
Prices are holding at the top and clearing at the bottom. 110 Schlich St, Yarralumla at $1.9m and 10 Strahan Row, Yarralumla at $1.54m led, with 11 Slowey Pl, Bruce at $1.5m, 5 Morton St, Weetangera at $1.21m and 7 Burgan Pl, Rivett at $1.2m. At the entry end: Phillip $615k, Dunlop $826k, Kaleen $850k, Calwell $900k, Kaleen $902.5k, Melba $915k, Chisholm $950k, Mawson $970k. The bottom half of the Canberra market is clearing between $615,000 and $970,000 — a functional market. The withdrawal crisis is concentrated in the mid-to-upper band where the public-service buyer with a large mortgage is most rate-sensitive.
The veteran's read: Two weeks ago I called Canberra the first market in the country to finish its correction. One week later it fell 17.5 points. This week the withdrawal rate hit 25.5% with nothing postponed. I am not calling a bottom in Canberra again this cycle. What I will say is that a 0.33:1 ratio is a panic reading, and panic readings are where the best buying happens — provided you are buying a mid-band house from a vendor who has already withdrawn once and is now facing a second failed campaign into a hike.
Extraction covers 796 individual listings across 354 suburb articles, mapped to eight regions. The regional shares below are listing-level and internally consistent; they will not sum exactly to Domain's city totals because Domain's summary counts only reported auctions while this data includes every listing on the page.
| Region | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Passed In | Sold % | WD % | PP % | P:W | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outer / Regional NSW | 362 | 144 | 88 | 92 | 38 | 40% | 24% | 25% | 1.05 | Broad, thin, price-led |
| Lower North Shore | 94 | 34 | 15 | 38 | 7 | 36% | 16% | 40% | 2.53 | Deferral epicentre |
| Eastern Suburbs | 93 | 42 | 21 | 29 | 1 | 45% | 23% | 31% | 1.38 | Trophy reopened |
| Inner West | 71 | 30 | 18 | 18 | 5 | 42% | 25% | 25% | 1.00 | Balanced capitulation |
| City Fringe | 44 | 17 | 8 | 17 | 2 | 39% | 18% | 39% | 2.12 | Parking stock |
| South West / Western Sydney | 44 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 27% | 23% | 18% | 0.80 | Weakest market |
| Northern Beaches | 34 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 50% | 18% | 29% | 1.67 | Flipped back to selling |
| St George / Sutherland | 29 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 38% | 28% | 24% | 0.88 | Grinding down |
| Hills District | 25 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 36% | 32% | 28% | 0.88 | Investor retreat |
The prestige belt produced the week's defining result: 19 St Thomas St, Bronte at $11.95m, in a region that sold 42 of 93 listings (45%) with a 23% withdrawal rate and a 1.38:1 postponement ratio. Supporting prints came from 301 Botany St, Kingsford $3.35m, 29 Irvine St, Kingsford $2.95m and 51 Brisbane St, Bondi Junction $2.7m. Randwick was the busiest suburb in Sydney with 16 listings and sold 7 — but withdrew 5 and postponed 4, a ratio of 0.80:1. Rose Bay withdrew 4 of 9.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Bronte print is the tell for the entire prestige market: the buyer who pays $11.95m at auction in the week after a 3.7% core inflation print is not rate-sensitive, and there are perhaps 200 of them in Sydney. Do not extrapolate it. What is extrapolable is Randwick and Rose Bay — the $2.5m–$4m eastern suburbs house, where one in two listings failed to sell. If you are buying in that band, target the 4 postponements in Randwick and the 5 withdrawals in Rose Bay. Those vendors have now failed publicly and will negotiate privately.
71 listings, 30 sold, 18 withdrawn, 18 postponed — perfectly balanced between deferral and capitulation, which is the definition of a market with no conviction in either direction. The top prints were 44 Ramsay St, Haberfield $3.7m, 285 Lilyfield Rd, Lilyfield $3.15m, 85 Weston St, Dulwich Hill $2.9m and 140 Queen St, Concord West $2.31m.
The suburb-level data is where the pain is. Marrickville ran 7 withdrawals from 9 listings with a single sale — a 14% postponement-to-withdrawal ratio and the worst suburb-level capitulation in Sydney this week. Concord sold none of 5, withdrawing 2 and postponing 3. Eastwood withdrew 4 of 7 and sold 1.
Buyer's Agent Take: Marrickville is the most interesting suburb in Sydney right now. Seven vendors pulled from a nine-listing book in one week is not a market — it is a queue at the exit door. Raine & Horne Marrickville ran a 86% withdrawal rate across 7 listings with zero sales; that agency's vendors were over-quoted, and they now know it. Approach those seven properties directly with a written offer 10% below the original guide and a 21-day finance clause. You will get a conversation.
94 listings, 34 sold (36%), 15 withdrawn, 38 postponed. The 2.53:1 postponement-to-withdrawal ratio is the highest of any major Sydney region and the second highest in the country behind West Growth Melbourne. This region is in a full postponement wave — vendors are not capitulating, they are waiting, and they have been waiting for months.
Turramurra is the epicentre: 13 listings, 2 sold, 5 withdrawn, 6 postponed, zero pass-ins. That is a 15% success rate on the largest single-suburb book in Sydney outside Randwick. Gordon postponed 4 of 6 with 1 sale. Carlingford postponed 4 of 9. Mosman sold 3 of 10 with 3 withdrawals and 3 postponements. The top print was 4D/46-48 Muston St, Mosman at $3.5m, then 16 Edgewood Pl, St Ives $2.825m, 20 Karril Av, Beecroft $2.05m and 1 Milton Rd, Turramurra $2m.
Ray White Upper North Shore ran 11 listings, sold 2 (18% push-through) and postponed 7 (64%) — a textbook deferral machine. Stone Real Estate Beecroft/Castle Hill ran 9 listings, sold 1, withdrew 4 and postponed 4.
Buyer's Agent Take: Turramurra's six postponed properties are the single best buying opportunity in Sydney this week and nobody is looking at them. Postponement is not withdrawal — those vendors still want to sell, they simply moved the date. Six of them moved the date in the same week. That is coordinated distress in a suburb where the median house is $2.6m and the school catchment (Turramurra High, Ku-ring-gai High) is the reason people buy there. Find out the new auction dates and be the only bidder in the room. A 64% postponement rate on an 11-listing book tells you the reserve is 8-12% above what the market will pay.
44 listings, 17 sold, 8 withdrawn, 17 postponed, only 2 passed in. Seventeen postponements against two pass-ins means City Fringe vendors are not even testing the market — they are scheduling and re-scheduling without ever letting the hammer fall. Top prints: 313/148 Goulburn St, Surry Hills $2.25m, 182 Henderson Rd, Alexandria $2.14m, 135 Tweedmouth Av, Rosebery $2.121m, 4 Watson St, Paddington $1.8675m.
Buyer's Agent Take: The City Fringe is the inner-city apartment and terrace market, and 39% postponements with 2% pass-ins is the signature of vendors chasing a market that moved in August. These are largely investor-owned and the yield math has broken: at a 3.2% gross yield in Sydney and a 6.4% investor mortgage, every one of these properties is cash-flow negative by roughly $2,400 a month. The investor vendor is the most motivated seller in the country right now. Target Alexandria and Rosebery stock — both have heavy new apartment supply and both postponed heavily.
34 listings, 17 sold (50%), 6 withdrawn, 10 postponed, 1 passed in. Last week this region withdrew 50% of its stock with zero pass-ins, and we called it the end of a deferral campaign. This week it flipped to a 50% sale rate with an 18% withdrawal rate. Top prints: 10/1-2 Tower St, Manly $6.7m — a beachfront apartment and the third-largest sale in Sydney — 8A Woodlands Rd, Forestville $2.6m, 7 Mcnamara Rd, Cromer $2.311m, 31 Austral Av, North Manly $2.2m (maximum bid).
Buyer's Agent Take: A one-week swing from 50% withdrawn to 50% sold is either the fastest sentiment reversal in Sydney or noise on 34 listings. Given the sample size, treat it as noise — but monitor it. If the Northern Beaches runs above 45% sold for a second consecutive week on a base above 40 listings, that is a genuine turn and the peninsula will be the first place in Sydney to bottom. Right now, the $6.7m Manly apartment is doing all the work in that average.
44 listings, 12 sold (27%), 10 withdrawn, 8 postponed, 14 passed in. The pass-in count is the highest of any Sydney region relative to its book — 14 pass-ins against 12 sales. Top prints: 7B Onslow St, Canterbury $1.85m, 194 Victoria Rd, Punchbowl $1.651m, 4/16 Thurlow St, Riverwood $1.12m, and then a cliff to 27 Little St, Cambridge Park $900k.
Buyer's Agent Take: This is where the 4.85% cash rate is doing its damage, and this is where the buying opportunity is largest in absolute dollars. The South West is first-home-buyer and investor territory with the thinnest equity buffers in the market. A 27% clearance rate with a 0.80:1 ratio is a market where vendors are beginning to accept that the March price is gone. Canterbury, Punchbowl and Riverwood are 11–13km from the CBD with train lines and sub-$1.2m stock. If you have pre-approval at a 6.4% assessment rate, you are one of perhaps three buyers per property in this corridor.
29 listings, 11 sold, 8 withdrawn, 7 postponed, 3 passed in. The 28% withdrawal rate is the second highest of any Sydney region. Top prints: 9a Carramar Cr, Miranda $2.28m, 44 Toyer Av, Sans Souci $1.985m, 1 Gilmore Av, Kirrawee $1.65m, 6/104 Evelyn St, Sylvania $1.62m.
Buyer's Agent Take: St George/Sutherland is the steady family market that has quietly become the most withdrawn one. A 0.88:1 ratio with 28% withdrawals says vendors here expected the 2025 premium to persist. It did not. Sans Souci and Sylvania waterfront-adjacent stock is the most over-priced segment; Kirrawee and Gymea townhouse stock is the most realistically priced. Buy the townhouse, not the water view.
25 listings, 9 sold, 8 withdrawn, 7 postponed, 1 passed in. A 32% withdrawal rate is the highest of any Sydney region and confirms the pattern we flagged in August: the Hills is investor and new-estate territory, and investors have left. Top prints: 3 Valda Pl, Baulkham Hills $2.825m, 7 Telowie Ct, Dural $2.34m, 12 Appian Cct, Baulkham Hills $1.91m, 1/28-32 Cecil Av, Castle Hill $1.425m.
Buyer's Agent Take: A 32% withdrawal rate in a region where the median house is above $2m means the vendors are not distressed — they are simply not selling at the price the market now offers. That is a standoff, not a crash. Wait. The Hills will not clear until either rates fall or vendors accept a 10% haircut, and the vendors have more patience than the buyers have urgency. This is the one Sydney region where I would advise a buyer to be patient rather than aggressive.
Computed from listing-level data, agencies with five or more scheduled listings this week. Push-through = sold ÷ total listings; WD = withdrawn ÷ total listings; PP = postponed ÷ total listings.
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Push-through | WD % | PP % | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Sotheby's International Realty | 15 | 8 | 53% | 27% | 20% | Prestige book, honest guides |
| NGFarah | 13 | 6 | 46% | 23% | 31% | Eastern suburbs volume |
| Adrian William | 11 | 5 | 45% | 27% | 9% | Low deferral, clean campaigns |
| TRG | 11 | 5 | 45% | 27% | 27% | Balanced |
| PPD Real Estate | 10 | 4 | 40% | 20% | 40% | Mid-band, heavy deferral |
| Uniland Real Estate (Epping/Castle Hill) | 11 | 4 | 36% | 27% | 18% | Hills exposure |
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Push-through | WD % | PP % | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raine & Horne Marrickville / Dulwich Hill | 7 | 0 | 0% | 86% | 14% | Total book failure |
| DibChidiac & Co. | 6 | 1 | 17% | 67% | 17% | Over-quoted |
| Ray White Eastern Beaches | 10 | 3 | 30% | 60% | 10% | Volume book, weak conversion |
| Spillane Property | 6 | 2 | 33% | 50% | 17% | Mid-band stress |
| Stone Real Estate Beecroft / Castle Hill | 9 | 1 | 11% | 44% | 44% | Deferral + withdrawal |
| Raine & Horne Bardwell Park / Kingsgrove | 7 | 1 | 14% | 43% | 0% | St George exposure |
| Ray White Upper North Shore | 11 | 2 | 18% | 18% | 64% | Deferral machine |
Melbourne has the cleanest agency books in the country. Gary Peer sold 8 of 11 (73% push-through, zero withdrawals). McGrath Taylors Lakes sold 7 of 8 (88%). Jellis Craig Whitehorse sold 3 of 7 with one withdrawal. Burbank Australia shows 12 of 12 sold, but that is a volume home-and-land builder transacting off-the-plan contracts, not an auction book — exclude it from comparisons. The one red flag is Ray White (Melton) at 43% withdrawn across 7 listings, consistent with the West Growth region's 23% clearance. Biggin Scott Glen Waverley postponed 6 of 8 (75%) and sold 1.
Brisbane's books are the worst in the country by conversion. Kollosche 18 listings / 2 sold (11%). Ray White Ascot 14 / 0. Ray White Cairns and Cairns Beaches 11 / 1. Ray White Wilston 11 / 1. Raine & Horne Hervey Bay 10 / 0. Ray White West End 9 / 1. Place Estate Agents Bulimba 9 / 2. Two agencies carry a withdrawal red flag — COASTAL (50% WD) and COASTAL Property Agents, Paradise Point (40% WD) — both Gold Coast, both with zero sales.
Adelaide is bifurcated. Ray White Prospect sold 8 of 10 (80% push-through, zero withdrawals) — the single best book of any agency in any capital this week. Harris Real Estate Kent Town sold 3 of 6 (50%). Against that, Ray White Mount Barker brought 9 listings, sold 0 and withdrew 4 (44%) — the Adelaide Hills is this city's weak spot.
Canberra is a one-agency market. Ray White Canberra carried 21 listings, sold 10 (48%), withdrew 2. Momentum Property carried 14, sold 5, withdrew 6 (43%). Blackshaw Manuka sold 3 of 5 (60%). The Property Collective sold 2 of 6 and withdrew 2.
Buyer's agent interpretation. The withdrawal rate is the only agency metric that matters to a buyer, because it is the cleanest public measure of whether an agency quoted a price the market would not pay. A 0% push-through on a seven-listing book is not bad luck — it is seven vendors who were told a number that was wrong by the same person. When you see an agency at 60%+ withdrawals on a double-digit book, you are looking at a vendor who has been misled and is now, eight weeks later, the most negotiable person in the suburb. The red-flag table is a shopping list, not a warning. Approach those vendors directly, tell them what the market cleared at in their postcode last week, and make a written offer.
Equally, do not use an agency's push-through rate to choose your listing agent without adjusting for stock type. Sotheby's 53% is a prestige book with a different buyer pool to Ray White Eastern Beaches' 60% withdrawal rate on mid-band stock. Compare agencies only within their own price band and region.
Rental data is SQM Research's weekly rents index for the week ending 28 October 2026, and vacancy data is SQM's September 2026 month (published 14 October, a four-week lag). Both are the most current series available.
| City | Vacancies | Sep 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2025 | YoY direction | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 13,331 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | Loosening | Tight, easing |
| Melbourne | 10,127 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | Loosening | Balanced-tight |
| Brisbane | 3,222 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | Flat | Structurally tight |
| Perth | 1,189 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | Flat | Crisis tight |
| Adelaide | 948 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | Tightening | Crisis tight |
| Canberra | 1,169 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | Easing from peak | Balanced |
| Darwin | 162 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | Volatile | Crisis tight |
| Hobart | 127 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | Tightening | Crisis tight |
| National | 42,290 | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | Loosening | Tight, easing |
The national vacancy rate has risen from 1.2% a year ago to 1.4%, with total vacancies up from 36,046 to 42,290. This is the first genuine easing in rental conditions in three years, and it is concentrated exactly where you would expect: Sydney (1.3% → 1.8%) and Melbourne (1.8% → 1.9%), the two markets with the largest investor sell-down and the weakest price growth. Meanwhile Adelaide tightened from 0.8% to 0.6% and Hobart from 0.4% to 0.5% — the small, affordable capitals are absorbing renters who have been priced out of Sydney and Melbourne.
| City | Median (auction) | Weekly rent (combined) | 12-mth rent change | Gross yield | Monthly rent | Monthly interest (80% LVR @ 6.4%) | Monthly shortfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $1,490,000 | $917.32 | +3.5% | 3.20% | $3,975 | $6,357 | −$2,382 |
| Melbourne | $921,000 | $688.97 | +6.0% | 3.89% | $2,986 | $3,930 | −$944 |
| Brisbane | $1,307,500 | $756.64 | +7.8% | 3.01% | $3,279 | $5,579 | −$2,300 |
| Adelaide | $975,000 | $647.84 | +4.1% | 3.46% | $2,807 | $4,160 | −$1,353 |
| Canberra | $970,000 | $680.69 | +2.3% | 3.65% | $2,950 | $4,139 | −$1,189 |
National combined weekly rent is $709.83 (+0.8% rolling month, +7.3% year); the capital city average is $794.79 (+4.8% year). National house rents are $794 (+7.6%) and unit rents $612 (+6.8%) — houses are again outpacing units, reversing the early-2026 pattern where unit rents led.
The yield arithmetic is now brutal and it is the single most important number for any investor reading this report. Every mainland capital is cash-flow negative on a cash basis before a single holding cost. Sydney at a 3.20% gross yield against a 6.4% investor mortgage loses $2,382 a month on 80% leverage. Brisbane is worse in dollar terms at −$2,300 on a 3.01% yield. Melbourne is the closest to neutral at −$944 on a 3.89% yield — and that is precisely why Melbourne is the only capital where auction clearance has held above 37%.
The asking price divergence. SQM's weekly asking prices index for the week ending 27 October shows the vendor side of the same equation: national combined asking price $964,375 (−0.8% month, +0.9% year). Sydney combined asking $1,569,690 (−1.0% month, −1.8% year) with houses at $2,034,216, down 3.1% over twelve months while units rose 2.7%. That is the most important vendor-behaviour statistic in this report: Sydney house vendors have cut their asking prices by 3.1% in a year while auction clearance sits at 28% TRUE. They are repricing, slowly and reluctantly, and they are still behind the market. Brisbane asking prices fell 0.8% for the year and 1.7% for the month — the fastest monthly repricing of any capital, which is exactly what a 71% pass-in rate should produce.
Buyer's agent interpretation. For an investor, the rental market is the only part of the equation that is currently working. Rents are growing 7.3% nationally and 8.6% in Brisbane houses. But rent growth cannot close a 320 basis point yield-to-debt gap in any reasonable timeframe, and a November hike widens it. The honest position for an investor in October 2026: buy for the land and the location, not the yield, and assume you are funding $1,000–$2,400 a month indefinitely. If that assumption breaks your plan, the plan is wrong. If you can carry it, the entry prices in South West Sydney, West Growth Melbourne and outer Brisbane are the best they have been since 2023.
Event 1 — Q3 CPI, released Wednesday 28 October. Done, and it was hot. Trimmed mean 3.7% year-ended (highest since the June 2024 quarter), quarterly 1.0%, headline 4.3%. Core inflation is rising, not falling, and it is being driven by non-tradables at 4.5% — domestic services, insurance, health, education. This is not an import story and it cannot be solved by the currency.
Event 2 — Cotality October HVI, Monday 2 November. September was the sixth consecutive monthly fall at −1.1%, taking values 5.2% below the March 2026 peak to a national median of $899,236, with the quarter at −3.7% and the year at 0.0%. Brisbane (−1.5%) and Sydney (−1.4%) led the decline; Darwin (+0.4%) was the only riser. October will be the first read on whether vendors began repricing before the CPI, which would mean the market had already priced the hike.
Event 3 — RBA decision, Tuesday 3 November. Cash rate is 4.60%. All four major banks now forecast +25bp to 4.85% — the fifth hike of 2026 and the highest since the GFC. Market-implied odds sit in the high 80s to low 90s. A hold would be a genuine shock.
Expect volume to fall 15–25% from this week's 2,045. Two reasons: Melbourne Cup week removes Victorian attention entirely, and vendors with campaigns in flight will not want to test the market 48 hours after a hike. Expect Sydney to hold in the 44–50% headline band and 26–30% TRUE — it has now produced two consecutive improvements and 985 scheduled is a real base to work from. Expect Brisbane to stay under 20% headline. Expect Canberra's withdrawal rate to remain above 20% — a 0.33:1 ratio does not normalise in one week. If the RBA hikes, the following week (14 November) is where the withdrawal spike lands; the cost effect on vendors takes 2–3 weeks to surface and we saw exactly that pattern after the 29 September hike, when Sydney's withdrawals doubled the following fortnight.
| City | Base case | Downside (hike + weak spring) | Upside (hold + spring clears) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | −3% to −5% | −8% | +1% |
| Melbourne | −2% to −4% | −6% | +2% |
| Brisbane | −5% to −8% | −11% | 0% |
| Adelaide | −2% to −4% | −6% | +2% |
| Canberra | −4% to −6% | −9% | +1% |
Probability weights (base / downside / upside): 55% / 30% / 15%. The base case is a continuation of the current grind: values fall 0.8–1.2% a month, clearance stays in the high 20s to low 30s TRUE, and the withdrawal rate trends toward 20% nationally. The downside case requires a second hike in December or February, which the 3.7% trimmed mean makes genuinely possible. The upside case requires a November hold and a strong spring clearance recovery — currently a 15% proposition at best.
The seasonal overlay matters: the fortnight from mid-December to mid-January is the thinnest liquidity window of the year. Thin liquidity amplifies both directions. In a falling market it means motivated vendors meet no buyers and accept larger discounts. That is where the best purchases of this cycle will be made.
The structural case has not changed and it is bullish. National vacancy is 1.4% and falling in the affordable capitals; population growth continues to outrun dwelling completions; the rental market is growing 7.3% a year. The cyclical case is bearish: core inflation at 3.7% is going the wrong way, the cash rate is heading to 4.85%, and borrowing capacity is down roughly a quarter from the 2025 peak.
My central expectation for the twelve months to October 2027 is a further 6–10% decline nationally from the March 2026 peak, troughing in the September–December 2027 window, followed by a genuine recovery once the RBA begins cutting. That puts the national median near $820,000–$850,000 against the current $899,236. Within that, expect sharp divergence: Brisbane and Adelaide to fall hardest (they rose most and their affordability advantage is being eroded by rates), Melbourne to fall least (it never had the boom), and Perth and Darwin to hold on structural undersupply.
First home buyers. This is the best market you have had since 2023 and most of you are sitting out because the headlines are bad. Here is the arithmetic: Sydney's median auction price fell from $1.650m to $1.490m this week; the median disclosed price was $1.370m; 50.9% of sales hid their price, which means the visible market is the cheaper half. Meanwhile 42% of scheduled auctions were never reported and 21% were withdrawn. You are bidding against one other buyer in most rooms. Targets: South West Sydney (Canterbury, Riverwood, Punchbowl at $900k–$1.2m), West Growth Melbourne (Werribee, Tarneit, Wyndham Vale at $540k–$770k — West Growth sold only 5 of 22 this week), and Brisbane's outer ring. Strategy: get pre-approval assessed at 6.75%, not at today's rate, so a November hike does not blow up your approval. Then make written pre-auction offers 8–10% below the guide with a 21-day finance clause. In a market with a 71% Brisbane and 56% Adelaide pass-in rate, your offer will be the only one.
Investors. Do not buy for yield — no mainland capital clears a 4% gross yield and Sydney is at 3.20%. Buy for land content and hold through the trough. The cash-flow number you must accept: Sydney −$2,382/month, Brisbane −$2,300, Adelaide −$1,353, Canberra −$1,189, Melbourne −$944. Best relative value is Melbourne, where the yield is 3.89%, the cash shortfall is under $1,000 a month, and the reserve-price disclosure regime gives you the only transparent price discovery in the country. Worst relative value is Brisbane, which has both the thinnest yield (3.01%) and the worst clearance (12.4% TRUE). If you must buy in Queensland, buy the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast housing stock where the pass-in problem is a pricing problem, not a demand problem.
Upsizers and family buyers. You have the rare advantage of selling into the same market you are buying into, so the absolute number matters less than the spread. The widest spreads right now are in the $2m–$4m Sydney band, where Eastern Suburbs ran 45% sold with 23% withdrawals, Lower North Shore postponed 40% of stock (a 2.53:1 ratio), and City Fringe postponed 39% (2.12:1). Turramurra's 6 postponed properties out of 13 and Randwick's 4 postponements are your specific targets — those vendors have failed publicly and will deal. In Melbourne, target Inner East (59% sold, 13% withdrawn — the strongest region in the country) only if you are buying the right house; otherwise wait for the West Growth and North Growth stock to reprice, which it has not yet done.
Downsizers and retirees. This is the one cohort with genuine leverage and the one cohort most likely to waste it. Your buyer is a family buyer, and family buyers are the only cohort still transacting. The mistake is buying the downsizer apartment first. Sell into the current market — Sydney sold 276 homes this week, its best week since September — and rent for six to twelve months. At national vacancy of 1.4% and 1.9% in both Sydney and Melbourne, a rental bridge is now genuinely available for the first time in three years. You will buy the replacement 6–10% cheaper in the September–December 2027 trough window, and you will not be the vendor who postponed six times in Turramurra.
Sellers — the one paragraph nobody wants to read. If your property is currently scheduled for auction and you have postponed it once, the market has already told you your reserve is wrong. 226 Sydney postponements and 182 withdrawals this week; 25.5% of Canberra scheduled auctions withdrawn; 71% of Brisbane reported auctions passed in. A second postponement converts a pricing problem into a credibility problem, and by the third campaign the buyer pool treats the property as damaged. Publish a reserve you would genuinely accept, and if it does not clear, negotiate within 48 hours of the pass-in. The vendors who transacted this week — 583 of them — got a price. The 1,462 who did not are now carrying a campaign into a rate hike.
| Source | Data used | Reference period | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domain (auction-results) | Clearance rates, scheduled/reported/sold/withdrawn/passed-in, medians, total value, listing-level status and price for all five capitals | Week Sunday 25 Oct – Saturday 31 Oct 2026, last updated 31 Oct | Real-time (preliminary) |
| Australian Bureau of Statistics | CPI September quarter 2026 — trimmed mean 3.7% y/y, 1.0% q/q; headline 4.3% y/y | Released 28 Oct 2026 | Current |
| Cotality (CoreLogic) Home Value Index | National median $899,236; −1.1% month, −3.7% quarter, 0.0% year, −5.2% from March 2026 peak; city splits | September 2026 edition, released 1 Oct 2026 | ~4 weeks (October edition due 2 Nov) |
| SQM Research | Weekly Rents Index (week ending 28 Oct); Weekly Asking Prices Index (week ending 27 Oct) | As stated | ~3 days |
| SQM Research | Vacancy rates and vacancy counts by capital | September 2026, published 14 Oct 2026 | ~4 weeks |
| RBA | Cash rate target 4.60%; Board decision 3 November 2026 | Current | Current |
| Major bank economics desks | Forecast of +25bp to 4.85% on 3 November | Post-CPI, 28–30 Oct 2026 | Current |
Domain's official clearance rate is Sold ÷ (Sold + Passed In + Withdrawn). It excludes postponed and rescheduled listings from both numerator and denominator, and it can only operate on auctions that were reported.
This report computes:
Pooled figures are scheduled-weighted across the five capitals, not a simple average of city rates.
All five capitals were rendered with a headless Chromium build using a full JavaScript execution budget, then parsed from the resulting DOM. For each city the parser extracts the summary table (clearance rate, scheduled, reported, sold, withdrawn, passed in, total sales, median, prior-year clearance rate) and every individual listing: suburb, address, property type, bedroom count, status, disclosed price and agency.
Status classification uses prefix matching, because Domain renders sold results as Sold, Sold prior to auction and Sold after auction, and renders postponements as Rescheduled rather than Postponed. Exact-match logic silently undercounts both categories and is the most common cause of a false spatial picture.
Listing volumes extracted this week: Sydney 354 suburb articles / 796 listings; Melbourne 217 / 470; Brisbane 166 / 278; Adelaide 85 / 112; Canberra 53 / 84. Sydney and Melbourne regional aggregates use fixed suburb-to-region mappings; Sydney's outer and regional NSW suburbs (Newcastle, Wollongong, the Illawarra, the Central Coast, the Southern Highlands and the far North Coast) are reported as a separate "Outer / Regional NSW" bucket rather than discarded or misallocated.
Known limitations. (1) Preliminary Saturday data is incomplete — reported rates rise through Monday and Tuesday as agents lodge results, so TRUE clearance will revise upward modestly. (2) Listing-level counts include every property on the page and therefore exceed Domain's reported-auction counts; regional percentages are internally consistent but do not sum to city totals. (3) Melbourne's volume in this report reflects Derby Day weekend and the reserve-price disclosure regime enforced since 16 October — volume comparisons against September and early October are not like-for-like. (4) Brisbane's and Adelaide's auction medians are struck on small sold samples (28 and 34) and are highly sensitive to single prestige sales. (5) Vacancy data carries a four-week lag and the October Home Value Index had not been released at the time of writing. (6) Cotality (hedonic index) and Domain (auction medians) measure different things — a Domain auction median moving 10% in a week is a compositional change in which properties sold, not a 10% change in the value of the housing stock.
This report is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.