Week ending Saturday 24 October 2026. Preliminary Domain data across the five mainland capitals: 2,141 scheduled auctions, 645 sold, a pooled TRUE clearance rate of 30.1% against a pooled headline of 46.3% — a deception gap of 16.2 percentage points. Total disclosed auction value $538.9 million.
Volume surged 21% week-on-week (2,141 from 1,763) and the auction market did not clear any better. That is the single most important sentence in this report: spring supply has arrived, and demand has not arrived with it.
| City | Official CR | TRUE CR | Scheduled | Reported | Sold | Withdrawn | Passed In | Median | Total Value | Gap | WD % | Unreported | YoY CR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 45% | 25.2% | 885 | 499 | 223 | 184 | 92 | $1,650,000 | $188.6m | 19.8pp | 20.8% | 43.6% | 70% |
| Melbourne | 56% | 41.4% | 838 | 618 | 347 | 100 | 171 | $1,181,000 | $297.0m | 14.6pp | 11.9% | 26.3% | 66% |
| Brisbane | 20% | 13.5% | 200 | 135 | 27 | 16 | 92 | $1,100,000 | $22.1m | 6.5pp | 8.0% | 32.5% | 48% |
| Adelaide | 28% | 17.8% | 152 | 95 | 27 | 8 | 60 | $1,100,000 | $20.7m | 10.2pp | 5.3% | 37.5% | 74% |
| Canberra | 46% | 31.8% | 66 | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | n/a | $10.4m | 14.2pp | 21.2% | 30.3% | 63% |
| Pooled | 46.3% | 30.1% | 2,141 | 1,393 | 645 | 322 | 426 | — | $538.9m | 16.2pp | 15.0% | 34.9% | — |
| City | Official CR | TRUE CR | Withdrawn % | Scheduled | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 52% → 45% (−7) | 31.1% → 25.2% (−5.9) | 18.2% → 20.8% (+2.6) | 846 → 885 | $1.430m → $1.650m |
| Melbourne | 53% → 56% (+3) | 36.7% → 41.4% (+4.7) | 10.7% → 11.9% (+1.2) | 553 → 838 (+51%) | $930K → $1.181m |
| Brisbane | 17% → 20% (+3) | 11.2% → 13.5% (+2.3) | 10.6% → 8.0% (−2.6) | 161 → 200 | $1.031m → $1.100m |
| Adelaide | 30% → 28% (−2) | 17.6% → 17.8% (+0.2) | 6.6% → 5.3% (−1.3) | 136 → 152 | $887K → $1.100m |
| Canberra | 63% → 46% (−17) | 49.3% → 31.8% (−17.5) | 14.9% → 21.2% (+6.3) | 67 → 66 | $830K → n/a |
1. The RBA reprieve lasted eight days. On Wednesday 21 October, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told an investment banking conference in Sydney that the inflation outlook was "materially worse" and that the Board faces "hard choices" when it meets the week after next. Market-implied odds of a 25bp hike to 4.85% on Tuesday 3 November — a level not seen since the Global Financial Crisis — went from 22% on Tuesday to roughly 51% on Wednesday, and the ASX 30-day interbank futures market closed Friday 23 October implying ~56%. Goldman Sachs flipped its call from hold to hike within hours of the speech. This is a complete reversal of the previous week, when an unemployment print of 4.7% with 39,300 jobs lost had collapsed hike odds to 16%. The macro variable that decides the next quarter of Australian housing is now Wednesday 28 October's September-quarter CPI — two days before the next RBA decision window opens.
2. Sydney's withdrawal rate jumped to 20.8% — the highest since May. 184 scheduled auctions were pulled, up from 154, on a base that grew 4.6%. TRUE clearance fell from 31.1% to 25.2%, meaning three in four scheduled Sydney auctions did not produce a sale this week. And 43.6% of scheduled auctions went unreported — the "dark inventory" problem is worsening, not improving.
3. Melbourne is the only capital genuinely improving — and the reason is structural, not cyclical. Scheduled auctions rose 51% to 838 — the largest weekly volume since the reserve-price disclosure regime was enforced on 16 October — and TRUE clearance rose 4.7 points to 41.4%. Three weeks of data now say the disclosure law did not destroy the Melbourne auction market; it cleared out the underquoters and let volume rebuild on honest price guides. Melbourne is the only capital where a buyer can currently get a published reserve a week out.
4. Canberra's floor was a single week of relief, not a bottom. Last week we called Canberra the first market in the country to finish its correction on a 49.3% TRUE read. This week it fell 17.5 points back to 31.8%, with withdrawals back to 21.2% and only 11 pass-ins from 46 reported. One good week in a 66-auction market is noise. Two consecutive good weeks would have been a signal. We were early and we were wrong, and the correction in the national capital is not finished.
The pooled TRUE clearance rate is flat at 30.1% against 30.7% last week, but the composition has shifted decisively: the market is now processing 21% more stock for the same number of sales. Sydney sold 223 homes from 885 scheduled; a year ago it cleared 70%.
Underneath the headline, three things are happening at once. First, withdrawals are rising again nationally (15.0% pooled) after two weeks of improvement — 322 properties were pulled this week. Second, the pass-in rate is extraordinary in the north: Brisbane recorded 92 pass-ins from 135 reported results (68%), Adelaide 60 from 95 (63%). Vendors in both cities are setting reserves a full cycle behind the market. Third, the disclosure of price is collapsing: 50% of Sydney's sold auction results (122 of 242) carried "price withheld", on top of 43.6% of auctions that were never reported at all. A buyer trying to establish value in Sydney this week had hard evidence on roughly one property in four.
Cotality's September Home Value Index — the most complete read we have — recorded the sixth consecutive monthly fall at −1.1% national, taking values 5.2% below the March 2026 peak. Every capital except Darwin fell. 97% of capital city suburbs declined over the three months to 30 September. Sales are down 19.1% year-on-year, total inventory is up 23.1%, and the median time to sell has stretched from 23 days to 39 days. Annual national growth is now exactly 0.0% — the cycle has fully round-tripped a year of gains.
The RBA sits at 4.60% with a live probability of 4.85% in ten days. The honest read for anyone writing a cheque before Christmas: this is a buyer's market in everything except the asking price, and the vendors who have not yet repriced are the ones whose auctions are being postponed, withdrawn and passed in at a combined rate of 70%.
Sydney scheduled 885 auctions — the highest weekly volume since early September — and reported only 499. Of those, 223 sold, 184 were withdrawn and 92 passed in. The 45% headline flatters a 25.2% true clearance rate by 19.8 points.
Listing-level extraction across 316 suburb articles and 716 individual listings shows 229 postponements against 171 withdrawals — a postponement-to-withdrawal ratio of 1.34:1, down from 1.55:1 last week. That easing is not good news. What changed is that agents stopped parking stock and started letting vendors pull it: withdrawals rose in absolute terms while postponements held roughly flat. When the postpone-to-withdraw ratio falls because the withdrawal numerator rises, you are watching a deferral queue convert into capitulation — not a market finding a floor.
Two data points confirm the psychology. Northern Beaches withdrew 16 of 32 listings (50%) with zero pass-ins — last week that same region postponed 47% of its stock. The deferral campaign has ended in surrender. And the Inner West ran a 0.74:1 ratio — 19 withdrawals against 14 postponements, a 32% withdrawal rate, the worst in any Sydney core region.
The median rose to $1,650,000 from $1,430,000. Read this carefully, because it is a trap. The top of the Sydney market barely traded this week: the largest disclosed auction sale was $4.28m (53 Cheltenham Rd, Cheltenham), against $25.2m in Bronte the previous Saturday. A median rising while the trophy end goes quiet means the $1.4m–$2m middle band did the transacting — owner-occupiers buying family homes — while the eight-figure market sat on its hands. That is a healthier composition than last week, but it is not capital growth.
The veteran's read: Sydney is now a market of two honest prices and one dishonest one. The honest prices are the mid-band family home (selling, at a discount) and the distressed unit (selling, at a bigger discount). The dishonest price is the vendor who listed in March, has rescheduled twice, and will withdraw in November. With 43.6% of auctions unreported and 50% of sold prices withheld, the information asymmetry in this market is now entirely in the vendor's favour — which is exactly why a buyer should refuse to bid without a comparable from the last 30 days in the same postcode.
Melbourne scheduled 838 auctions, up 51% from 553, and reported 618 — a 73.7% reporting rate, the best transparency of any capital this week. Sold 347, withdrawn 100, passed in 171. Official 56%, TRUE 41.4%, up 4.7 points.
This is the third weekend under Victoria's reserve-price disclosure regime, and the picture is now clear enough to call. Enforcement on 16 October did not kill the auction method — it removed the underquoters, and once buyers could see a real reserve a week out, volume rebuilt from 553 to 838 in a fortnight. Melbourne is the only major capital where clearance and volume rose together this week. That combination is what a functioning market looks like.
The caveats matter. 171 homes passed in — 20.4% of everything scheduled — and the median jumped to $1,181,000 from $930,000. That median is a composition artefact, not a value gain: the Inner East and Inner South books (100 and 62 listings) dominated this week's volume, while the growth-corridor books were thin. Domain's auction median for Melbourne has now swung $250,000 in two weeks on composition alone. Ignore it.
Region-level extraction across 233 suburb articles and 704 listings: Inner East 58% sold (58 of 100), Inner South 55%, CBD/Inner 56%, Inner North 53%, Middle Ring East 54%, Middle Ring North/West 52%. The stress is entirely in the outer corridors: South East Growth 23% sold with a 38% withdrawal rate — the worst single cell in any capital this week — and North Growth 40% with 20% withdrawals.
The veteran's read: Melbourne has quietly become the most tradable market in the country for a buyer who wants to know the reserve before they turn up. That is worth a premium in certainty. Use it: in the inner east and inner south, ask for the published reserve, do your sums against it, and bid only if the number is defensible on a 12-month hold. The growth corridors are the opposite — South East Growth at 23% sold is a market where the land-and-build package is worth less than the sum of its parts, and the 38% withdrawal rate says the developers' agents know it.
Brisbane scheduled 200 auctions (up from 161), reported 135, and sold 27. Ninety-two passed in — a 68% pass-in rate. TRUE clearance 13.5%. This is the third consecutive week at or below 20% headline, and the weakest sustained auction market of any Australian capital since April 2020.
Listing-level extraction across 156 suburb articles and 254 listings: 44 sold (17.3%), 31 withdrawn (12.2%), 27 postponed, 152 passed in (59.8%). The postponement-to-withdrawal ratio of 0.87:1 sits in transition territory, but the transitions are into pass-in, not into sale.
The damage is concentrated on the Gold Coast and the investor apartment belt: Sanctuary Cove 3 listings, zero sold, 3 withdrawn; Broadbeach Waters 3 (0 sold, 2 withdrawn); Runaway Bay 3 (0, 2); Burleigh Heads 3 (0, 1 written, 1 postponed); Buddina 2 (0, 1). In Brisbane proper: Auchenflower 2 (0 sold), Eight Mile Plains 3 (0 sold, 2 passed), Greenslopes 5 (1 sold, 3 passed).
What cleared was quality and coastal trophy: Camp Hill $2.70m (130 Stanley Rd), Hope Island $2.60m, Isle of Capri $2.43m, Tugun $2.25m, Maroochydore $1.80m, South Brisbane $1.75m.
Brisbane's contradiction remains unresolved: values are still 5.9% higher than a year ago (Cotality) but the city recorded the sharpest monthly fall of any capital in September at −1.5%, with sales down 27.2% year-on-year — the steepest turnover collapse in the country. Vendors are anchored to a market that peaked in May. A 68% pass-in rate is what that anchoring costs.
The veteran's read: Brisbane is where the 2021–2026 boom is being repriced in real time, and it is only about a third of the way through. The Gold Coast canal-and-apartment belt is the epicentre. If you are buying there, you are not buying an auction result — you are buying a negotiation, and the vendor's number has no relationship to the room. Wait for the spring selling season to exhaust itself in late November; the discounts will be materially better.
Adelaide scheduled 152 auctions and reported only 95 — 37.5% unreported, continuing the collapse in the transparency advantage that was this city's signature all cycle. Sold 27, withdrawn 8, passed in 60 — a 63% pass-in rate on reported results.
TRUE clearance 17.8%, essentially flat on last week's 17.6%, but the composition is deteriorating: two consecutive weeks with pass-in rates above 55% and unreported rates above 37% is no longer a blip, it is a repricing.
Listing-level extraction is thin (77 suburb articles, 97 listings) but consistent: 31 sold (32%), 8 withdrawn, only 2 postponed, 56 passed in. Adelaide vendors do not postpone — they either sell or they pass in. That makes the pass-in number the purest sentiment measure in the country, and 63% is bad.
Stress is concentrated in the northern corridor and the Hills: Clearview 3 (0 sold, 1 withdrawn, 2 passed), Mount Barker 2 (0 sold), Ingle Farm 2 (1 sold, 1 passed), Munno Para West 2 (0 sold), Marion 2 (0 sold), Burnside 2 (0 sold).
The top of the market held up: Woodville Park $2.15m (59 Windsor Av), Kensington Gardens $1.65m, Trinity Gardens $1.47m, Flagstaff Hill $1.452m, Nailsworth $1.33m. Median $1,100,000, up from $887,000 — again composition on 27 sales, not a $200,000 value gain. Cotality has the Adelaide median at $928,560 and falling 1.3% in September.
The veteran's read: Adelaide's structural case remains the best in the country — 1.4% vacancy, 6.5% annual growth, only 2.9% below its peak — and that is precisely why its vendors are still pricing for March. The insulation has now failed at the auction margin for two consecutive weeks. This is the market where a patient buyer gets the best quality-to-price ratio in Australia over the next six months, because the underlying fundamentals are sound and the sellers are simply slow.
Canberra scheduled 66 auctions, reported 46, sold 21, withdrew 14, passed in 11. Official 46% (from 63%), TRUE 31.8% (from 49.3%), withdrawals 21.2% (from 14.9%).
We flagged last week that a single week in a 66-auction market is noise. This week proves it. Listing-level extraction across 37 suburb articles and 50 listings: 21 sold (42%), 13 withdrawn (26%), 6 postponed, 10 passed — a postponement-to-withdrawal ratio of 0.46:1, the deepest withdrawal-crisis reading in any capital. Canberra vendors are not rescheduling; they are leaving.
The results were narrow: Mawson 2 of 2, Ngunnawal 2 of 4, Florey, Yarralumla, Denman Prospect, Calwell and Forrest each clearing one. Stress: Kingston 3 (1 sold, 2 withdrawn), Calwell 3 (1, 1), Forrest 2 (1, 1). Top prices: Red Hill $1.55m, Forde $1.53m, Mawson $1.45m, Conder $1.14m, Narrabundah $1.09m.
The veteran's read: Canberra is 6.2% below its May 2022 peak, −1.6% annually, and now has the second-highest vacancy rate in the country. What looked like a bottom last week was a small sample and a lucky Saturday. The structural problem — a public-service town with a contracting federal spend and the highest share of white-collar mortgage stress in the country — has not changed. Do not treat this market as recovered.
Extracted from 316 suburb articles and 716 individual listings on the Domain Sydney auction results page for the week ending 24 October 2026. Region mapping covers the seven core Sydney regions, plus North-West Sydney, Western/South-West Sydney, Regional NSW and a long tail of single-listing suburbs.
| Region | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Passed | Sold % | WD % | PP % | P:W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Suburbs | 101 | 33 | 18 | 42 | 8 | 33% | 18% | 42% | 2.33:1 |
| Lower North Shore | 82 | 27 | 17 | 33 | 5 | 33% | 21% | 40% | 1.94:1 |
| North-West Sydney | 70 | 21 | 15 | 31 | 3 | 30% | 21% | 44% | 2.07:1 |
| Western/South-West Sydney | 69 | 31 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 45% | 16% | 19% | 1.18:1 |
| Inner West | 60 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 37% | 32% | 23% | 0.74:1 |
| St George/Sutherland | 49 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 5 | 31% | 22% | 37% | 1.64:1 |
| City Fringe | 44 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 39% | 23% | 25% | 1.10:1 |
| Regional NSW | 38 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 18% | 34% | 39% | 1.15:1 |
| Northern Beaches | 32 | 10 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 31% | 50% | 19% | 0.38:1 |
| Hills District | 16 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 31% | 19% | 31% | 1.67:1 |
| Long tail (127 suburbs) | 155 | 54 | 38 | 41 | 22 | 35% | 25% | 26% | 1.08:1 |
The prestige belt produced the country's deepest postponement concentration: 42 of 101 listings rescheduled, against 18 withdrawals (2.33:1). Only a third sold.
The suburb detail is the story. Coogee: 8 listings, 1 sold, 6 postponed. Bondi Junction: 7 listings, 1 sold, 4 postponed. Randwick: 10 listings, 4 sold, 4 postponed. Bronte, which produced $37m of sales last Saturday, sold exactly one property this week — a $1.37m unit.
The most telling statistic in the entire report: the largest auction sale in the Eastern Suburbs this week was an apartment. 1/30 Fairfax Rd, Bellevue Hill at $2.61m, followed by a Maroubra house at $2.05m and a Rose Bay unit at $1.925m. Not one house in Sydney's prestige belt cleared above $2.05m at auction this week. A fortnight ago that same belt produced $25.2m and $12.12m in a single Saturday. The trophy market has not fallen — it has stopped. Owners of eight-figure property will not submit to a public auction in a market printing 25% clearance, so they are simply not listing. What is left in the book is the $1.5m–$2.5m stock whose owners must sell.
Buyer's Agent Take: A 2.33:1 ratio in the east is an invitation, not a warning. These vendors have already decided they want to sell — they have simply blinked on the date. Approach the 42 postponed listings directly through the agent, offer on the original guide rather than the revised one, and make the offer conditional-free to compensate for the uncertainty. In Coogee and Bondi Junction specifically, a 12–15% discount to the March comparable is now achievable off-market. Do not wait for the rescheduled auction: by then the vendor has paid for another campaign and will be harder to move.
27 sold, 17 withdrawn, 33 postponed (1.94:1). Mosman produced 11 listings and only 3 sales. St Ives is the single worst book in Sydney: 13 listings, 1 sale, 3 withdrawals, 9 postponements — a 69% postponement rate with zero pass-ins. Wahroonga 7 (1 sold, 3 withdrawn, 3 postponed).
The Upper North Shore price band ($2.5m–$4m family homes) is frozen: buyers there are either finance-constrained at 6.2%+ or waiting for the RBA. Greenwich's $3.8m (32 Wisdom Rd) was the exception that proves the rule — a genuinely rare property, well marketed, cleared.
Buyer's Agent Take: St Ives is your hunting ground. Nine vendors in one suburb have now publicly signalled they cannot sell at their number. Pick the three best streets (the east-side walk-to-village pocket, not the Mona Vale Rd side), get three independent appraisals, and make a written offer 8–10% under the lowest one. You will get a conversation. In Mosman, ignore the auction campaign entirely and target the postponed stock — the agents there are managing 33 parked listings and will welcome a clean, unconditional buyer.
The Epping/Ryde/Macquarie Park corridor is the new postponement epicentre: 31 of 70 postponed (44%), 15 withdrawn, only 21 sold. Epping: 10 listings, 3 sold, 1 withdrawn, 5 postponed. Eastwood: 7 listings, 0 sold, 1 withdrawn, 5 postponed, 1 passed. Marsfield 7 listings similarly thin.
The one bright spot is genuinely bright: Epping produced $3.55m (56 Chelmsford Av) and $3.419m (17 George St) — two of the four largest auction sales in Sydney this week, in the same suburb that could not clear five other listings. That is what a bifurcated market looks like at suburb level: new-build duplex stock at $3m+ clears, 1970s brick veneer at $2.2m does not.
Buyer's Agent Take: The North-West is where Sydney's investor and Chinese-Australian family capital is most concentrated, and it is the most rate-sensitive cohort in the city. Fifty-two listings in this region are either postponed or withdrawn — a queue of motivated sellers. For a family buyer, the Epping/Eastwood corridor at a 10% discount to 2025 pricing is the best owner-occupier value in the Sydney metro right now: school catchment, rail, and stock that has already been re-listed twice. Negotiate hard on the postponed book.
31 sold from 69 listings (45%) with only 11 withdrawals (16%) and a healthy 1.18:1 ratio. This is the only Sydney region with a functional auction market this week, and it is not where the commentary says the pain is.
Auburn's $3.55m (16 Station Rd) and Strathfield's $3.30m (9 Edgar St) led, with Homebush at $3.909m — the third-largest sale of the week. The buyer pool here is unambiguously local, unambiguously owner-occupier, and unambiguously buying on yield-plus-land rather than sentiment.
Buyer's Agent Take: Do not let the "west is weak" narrative blind you. A 45% sold rate with 16% withdrawals on 69 listings is the strongest reading in the Sydney metro this week, and the price points ($1.1m–$1.6m for a house on 550sqm) are where the marginal Sydney buyer can actually get finance. If you are an investor seeking yield, Strathfield/Homebush/Auburn duplex sites are the only part of Sydney where the auction room still has competition in it. That will not last once the RBA pauses.
The correction zone, and it is now capitulating rather than deferring. 19 withdrawn against 14 postponed — the second-lowest ratio in the metro after the Northern Beaches.
The suburb detail is brutal: Drummoyne 4 listings, 0 sold, 3 withdrawn. Concord 4 listings, 0 sold, 3 withdrawn. Balmain 4 listings, 0 sold, 2 withdrawn. Lilyfield 5 listings, 1 sold, 3 withdrawn. Ashfield 3 listings, 1 sold, 2 withdrawn. Only Marrickville held (8 listings, 4 sold).
Top sales: Stanmore $4.055m (10 Clarendon Rd), $2.855m and $2.52m elsewhere in the inner west. The trophy stuff cleared; the $2m–$3m terrace did not.
Buyer's Agent Take: Balmain, Drummoyne and Concord vendors are now withdrawing en masse — which means they have accepted they cannot get March pricing and are choosing to rent the property out rather than sell. That is your signal to write directly to those owners through the agent with a rent-back or long-settlement offer. Sellers who withdraw are not uninterested; they are liquidity-constrained on the buy side. Solve their problem and you will buy 8–12% under the last comparable. This is the highest-conviction play in Sydney this week.
15 sold, 11 withdrawn, 18 postponed. Caringbah: 8 listings, 1 sold, 3 withdrawn, 4 postponed. Cronulla: 9 listings, 2 sold, 3 withdrawn, 4 postponed. The Shire's unit and townhouse stock is where the withdrawals sit. $3.14m and $2.405m at the top end held.
Buyer's Agent Take: Sutherland Shire houses on 600sqm+ in the $1.6m–$2.2m band remain the most defensible family purchase in Sydney — the region's clearance is weak because the unit book is weak, not the housing book. Buy the house, avoid the apartment. Anything built after 2015 in Caringbah or Cronulla with a strata levy above $1,200 a quarter is a liability in this rate environment.
17 sold, 10 withdrawn, 11 postponed — the most balanced book in the inner city, and the highest sold-rate of any core region. Darlinghurst 6 (1 sold, 2 withdrawn, 3 postponed) was the weak pocket; Surry Hills, Paddington and Redfern held. Top: Alexandria $2.955m (7 Power Av), Paddington $2.305m (303/357 Glenmore Rd), Surry Hills $1.945m (70 Cooper St), with a $1.70m Zetland apartment clearing — the only new-build unit above $1.5m to sell at auction in the metro this week.
Buyer's Agent Take: The city fringe is clearing because it is the one market where the vendor's reserve and the buyer's expectation have actually met — mostly on terraces under $2.5m. For a downsizer or professional couple, this is the lowest-friction purchase in Sydney right now. The apartment market here is a different story: anything with a special levy or cladding history is unsellable at any price, and the 2026 supply pipeline in Zetland and Waterloo is not yet through.
The most important number in this report. Sixteen withdrawals from 32 listings, six postponements, zero pass-ins, ten sales. Last week this region ran a 3.0:1 postponement campaign with 47% of stock parked. This week the parking ended and the withdrawals began.
The detail shows what is being pulled: Dee Why 3 listings, all withdrawn. Forestville 5 listings, 4 withdrawn. Narrabeen 3, all withdrawn or postponed. Mona Vale 4, 2 withdrawn. Newport 2, 1 withdrawn. Balgowlah, Bilgola Plateau — withdrawn. Critically, most of these are units and townhouses, not houses: 7/2-10 Hawkesbury Av Dee Why, 1115/15 Howard Av Dee Why, 39/1337-1347 Pittwater Rd Narrabeen, 18/12-14 Wetherill St Narrabeen, 3/28 Darley St Mona Vale, 434/25 Wentworth St Manly. What sold was houses and house-like stock: $3.35m Fairlight (28 Hilltop Cr), $2.70m Avalon Beach (49 Kevin Av), $2.50m Warriewood.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Northern Beaches apartment market has just told you the truth: investor-owned strata stock cannot clear at current reserves, and the owners are pulling rather than discounting. If you want a Northern Beaches unit, wait four to six weeks and approach the withdrawn listings directly — the same owners will be paying two mortgages into December. If you want a house, buy now: the housing book is 60%+ cleared and only the units are dragging the region's statistics down. Do not read 50% withdrawals as a housing-market signal.
Thin but weak: 5 sold, 3 withdrawn, 5 postponed from 16. $2.65m and $1.989m at the top. Kellyville and Castle Hill new-estate stock continues to underperform the established Cherrybrook/West Pennant Hills book.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Hills is a supply story, not a demand story. New estates at Kellyville and North Kellyville are competing with each other and with a wave of 2021 buyers who are now selling. If you must buy there, buy established (Cherrybrook, West Pennant Hills, Beecroft) and buy the land component. Avoid anything with a community title scheme.
Extracted from 233 suburb articles and 704 individual listings. Melbourne was the only capital to improve on both volume and clearance this week.
| Region | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Passed | Sold % | WD % | PP % | P:W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Ring East | 114 | 61 | 15 | 10 | 28 | 54% | 13% | 9% | 0.67:1 |
| Middle Ring North/West | 114 | 59 | 18 | 14 | 23 | 52% | 16% | 12% | 0.78:1 |
| Inner East | 100 | 58 | 9 | 5 | 28 | 58% | 9% | 5% | 0.56:1 |
| Inner North | 72 | 38 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 53% | 10% | 7% | 0.71:1 |
| Inner South | 62 | 34 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 55% | 13% | 13% | 1.00:1 |
| North Growth | 45 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 40% | 20% | 11% | 0.56:1 |
| CBD/Inner | 39 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 56% | 10% | 15% | 1.50:1 |
| West Growth | 22 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 36% | 14% | 23% | 1.67:1 |
| South East Growth | 13 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 23% | 38% | 31% | 0.80:1 |
| Regional VIC | 16 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 31% | 6% | 19% | 3.00:1 |
| Long tail (75 suburbs) | 107 | 54 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 50% | 17% | 12% | 0.72:1 |
The shape of this market is a ring, not a gradient. Everything inside the middle ring clears at 52–58%. Everything outside it clears at 23–40%. That is a 30-point spread between the inner east and the south-east growth corridor in the same city on the same weekend — the widest intra-city divergence we have recorded in 2026.
Inner East was the strongest book in the country this week: 58 sold from 100 listings (58%), 9 withdrawals, 5 postponements. Kew produced 11 listings and 3 sales (2 withdrawals, 2 postponed, 4 passed) — the weakest corner of a strong region. Camberwell, Hawthorn, Balwyn and Glen Iris carried it. Top sales: $3.40m Fitzroy North (137 Miller St), $3.26m Alphington (49 Lucerne Cr), $3.20m South Yarra (56 Mason St), $2.98m Hawthorn East (77 Pleasant Rd), $2.88m Fitzroy North (90 Freeman St) and $2.85m Deepdene (942 Burke Rd).
Inner North (72 listings, 53% sold): Fitzroy North took two of the five biggest sales in the city. CBD/Inner 56% with the highest postponement ratio in Melbourne at 1.5:1 — the apartment belt is still parking stock.
The growth corridors are the tell. South East Growth: 13 listings, 3 sold, 5 withdrawn, 4 postponed, 1 passed — 23% sold and 38% withdrawn. That is Cranbourne/Clyde North/Berwick/Pakenham, and it is the single worst-performing cell in any capital this week. North Growth 40% (Craigieburn, Mickleham, Wollert): Craigieburn 6 (2 sold), Mickleham thin, Epping 6 (2 sold, 2 withdrawn). West Growth 36% with a 1.67:1 postponement ratio (Tarneit, Werribee, Wyndham Vale: Wyndham Vale 6 listings, 2 sold, 3 postponed).
Buyer's Agent Take: Melbourne now offers the cleanest arbitrage in Australian residential property. The inner ring is trading at 55–58% clearance with published reserves — you know the number, you know the competition, and you can act. The growth corridors are at 23–40% with vendors who are still anchored to 2021 land values and a 38% withdrawal rate in the south-east. Buy the inner ring at the reserve; do not buy the corridors at any price until the land-and-build developers start failing, because that is when the real discount arrives. The one exception: if you are a first home buyer chasing the stamp duty concession, the west growth corridor at a 12% discount to the 2025 median with a 6-month settlement is now genuinely attractive — but only on established titles, never on a build contract.
From listing-level extraction (agencies with 4+ Sydney listings, 5+ Melbourne listings). Push-through = sold ÷ total; withdrawal = withdrawn ÷ total.
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Push-through | WD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belle Property North Shore | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 80% | 0% |
| Adrian William | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 58% | 25% |
| Stone Real Estate Beecroft/Castle Hill/Epping | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 56% | 0% |
| Sydney Sotheby's International Realty | 29 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 45% | 24% |
| Uniland Real Estate (Epping/Castle Hill) | 14 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 43% | 14% |
| Ray White Eastern Beaches | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 43% | 21% |
| Ray White Upper North Shore | 17 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 41% | 24% |
| Ray White Double Bay | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 40% | 20% |
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Push-through | WD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highland Double Bay | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0% | 22% |
| Chan Yahl | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10% | 30% |
| Ray White Castle Hill | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12% | 0% |
| First National Port Stephens | 13 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 15% | 15% |
| Highland Sutherland Shire & St George | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 29% | 29% |
| Ray White Epping | 14 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 29% | 0% |
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Push-through | WD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Plant Manningham | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 78% | 11% |
| Jellis Craig Moonee Valley | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 75% | 0% |
| Ray White Glenroy | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 73% | 18% |
| Jellis Craig & Company | 23 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 65% | 4% |
| Jellis Craig Doncaster | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 62% | 12% |
| Jellis Craig Northcote | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 60% | 20% |
| Nelson Alexander Fitzroy | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 60% | 0% |
| Marshall White Boroondara | 23 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 57% | 13% |
The buyer's-agent interpretation. Two patterns are worth money. First, Jellis Craig's network is the standout of the week: 23 listings at 65% push-through and a 4% withdrawal rate at the flagship, plus 75–78% at Moonee Valley and Manningham. An agency that clears two-thirds of a 23-listing book in one weekend is pricing to the market, and their published reserves are credible. Second, the Sydney red flags are structural, not random: Highland Double Bay sold none of nine listings and postponed seven, and Chan Yahl sold one of ten. When one agency in one suburb posts a 0% push-through on a nine-listing book while Belle Property North Shore posts 80% on ten, the difference is the pricing conversation at the listing appointment, not the market.
The practical use of this table: if your target property is listed with a 0–15% push-through agency, assume the reserve is 8–12% above a defensible number and negotiate accordingly. If it is with a 60%+ agency, the reserve is real — do your numbers and bid, because you will not get a second chance.
SQM Research weekly rents index, week ending 20 October 2026:
| Index | All Houses | Weekly Δ | All Units | Weekly Δ | Combined | 12-mth (combined) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | $790 | +$2 | $609 | +$1 | $706.29 | +6.9% |
| Capital City Average | $935 | +$3 | $671 | −$1 | $794.91 | +4.9% |
National combined rents have now risen from $702 to $706.29 over the past two months — a 0.3% rolling month and a 1.4% rolling quarter. The annual pace of 6.9% remains more than double the rate of capital growth, which is now negative. This is the single most important structural fact in the Australian housing market today: rents are compounding at ~7% a year while values fall.
Vacancy and yield (Cotality, September 2026 — the most recent complete read):
| Market | Vacancy | Classification | Gross Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | 2.0% | Tight (up from 1.5% record low) | 3.85% |
| Adelaide | 1.4% | Critically tight | ~4.3% |
| Brisbane | 2.1% | Tight | ~4.0% |
| Perth | 2.1% | Tight | ~4.4% |
| Sydney | 2.3% | Tight | 3.4% |
| Melbourne | ~2.4% | Tight | ~3.7% |
| Hobart | 3.0% | Balanced | ~4.9% |
| Darwin | — | — | 6.5% |
Yield versus the investor rate. With the cash rate at 4.60% and investor variable mortgages trading at roughly 6.4%–6.7%, the national gross yield of 3.85% implies a negative carry of 2.5–2.9 percentage points before costs, and roughly 3.4–3.8 points negative after a 0.5% management fee, insurance, council rates and maintenance. On a $900,000 national median dwelling, that is a cash shortfall of roughly $30,600–$34,200 a year — around $590–$660 per week out of the investor's pocket, before any allowance for vacancy.
Two things follow. First, the negative-gearing arithmetic has flipped from a tax strategy into a genuine cash-flow business decision. At a 6.65% investor rate, a 3.85% yield and 7% rent growth, the break-even year on cash flow is roughly year seven if rates hold — and every 25bp hike pushes it out by another nine months. Second, this is why investor lending has collapsed and why the apartment belt from Dee Why to Labrador is withdrawing rather than selling. The marginal investor is not a buyer at these numbers.
The renter's side of the ledger is the opposite story. A 2.0% national vacancy rate is still well below the pre-COVID decade average of 3.3%, and Adelaide at 1.4% is functionally full employment for landlords. Rents have risen about $200 a week nationally over five years. The 0.3% monthly rent increase is the slowest since May 2025 — the market is cooling at the margin — but with net overseas migration still running above 400,000 and completions running below underlying demand, there is no scenario in the next 12 months where vacancy normalises.
For a buyer, that asymmetry is the entire investment case: you are buying a falling asset with a rising income stream. The entry price is now 5.2% below peak and falling. Do not buy for capital growth in 2027. Buy for yield-plus-land, hold for the rent, and accept that the capital gain is a 2028–2029 event.
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | ABS September-quarter CPI | The swing variable. Hauser pre-flagged it as likely to confirm a worsening outlook. Trimmed mean above 3.8% locks in a November hike; below 3.4% and November is off. |
| Sat 31 Oct | Next auction Saturday | The last full spring weekend before the RBA. Expect vendors to hold volume and buyers to hold fire — a low-clearance, high-withdrawal print is the base case. |
| Tue 3 Nov | RBA decision (Melbourne Cup day) | Market-implied ~56% for +25bp to 4.85% — the highest since the GFC. A hike is a 2–4 week lag on auction volumes and a same-day repricing of borrowing capacity. |
| Early Nov | Cotality October HVI | Expect a seventh consecutive monthly fall. The question is whether it accelerates past −1.1%. |
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger | National value path | Sydney | Melbourne | Brisbane |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base — "higher for longer, slow bleed" | 45% | CPI 3.5–3.9%, RBA hikes once in Nov then holds | −6% to −8% from peak | −9% to −11% | −8% to −10% | −10% to −13% |
| Downside — "the fifth hike and a labour market crack" | 30% | CPI > 4.0%, hike in Nov and Dec, unemployment > 5.0% by Q2 | −12% to −15% | −14% to −17% | −13% to −16% | −17% to −21% |
| Upside — "CPI surprise low, RBA pauses, credit thaws" | 25% | Trimmed mean < 3.4%, RBA holds 3 Nov and signals a peak | −3% to −5% (trough in Q1) | −6% | −5% | −6% |
Our central case has shifted down from last week. A week ago the unemployment print had put a credible floor under the rate outlook. Hauser's Wednesday speech removed it. The 30% downside scenario now deserves the attention it did not deserve seven days ago — and in that scenario, the growth-corridor stock (South East Melbourne, Brisbane's Gold Coast belt, Western Sydney new estates) is where the losses concentrate, because that is where the leverage is.
Expect volume to hold near 2,000–2,200 with TRUE clearance in the 26–31% range and pooled withdrawals at or above 15%. The pre-CPI Saturday historically produces the weakest print of the spring — vendors who were going to sell have sold, and the rest are waiting for the RBA. Sydney will likely post a headline in the low 40s; treat anything above 45% as a reporting artefact, not a recovery.
The spring selling season ends into the worst possible macro combination: a possible fifth hike, a weakening labour market, and 23% more inventory than a year ago. November and December will be the discount months — the vendors who missed the spring window will be the ones negotiating in the first half of December, and they will be negotiating with a much thinner buyer pool. Historical pattern in this cycle: the last two weeks before Christmas produce the best discounts of the year, typically 4–6% below the November clearing price.
National values −6% to −8% from the March 2026 peak, with the trough in Q3 2027. The rate of decline is already decelerating in absolute terms (−1.1% in September against −1.4% in August), and rents are compounding at 6.9%. Those two forces — falling prices and rising income — meet somewhere in the second half of 2027, and that is when yields cross back above 4.2% nationally and the investor bid returns.
First home buyers. This is the best window you will get in this cycle, and it closes when the RBA pauses. Your advantages are three: no bridge to sell, the First Home Guarantee, and stamp duty concessions in NSW (full exemption to $800,000, tapered to $1m), Victoria (duty cut to 2026–27 for off-the-plan), Queensland (full exemption to $700,000) and WA. Your target: established houses and townhouses in the middle ring, 10% below the 2025 comparable, with a 90-day settlement and a finance clause. Best value right now: Western/South-West Sydney (45% clearance — the only functional auction market in the metro), Brisbane's middle ring (Carindale, Holland Park, Camp Hill under $1.2m), Adelaide's north-east (Modbury, Paradise, Campbelltown — quality stock, slow sellers), and Melbourne's Middle Ring East (Ringwood, Mitcham, Nunawading) where 54% clearance means you can still compete. Avoid: off-the-plan anywhere, and any growth-corridor house-and-land package in this cycle — the land value has further to fall than the build cost.
Investors. Do not buy for capital growth. Buy for yield plus land plus a discount, or do not buy. The arithmetic is now brutal: national gross yield 3.85% against 6.4–6.7% investor debt is a $590–$660 a week cash hole. If you are buying regardless, the three highest-conviction plays are: (1) Adelaide — 1.4% vacancy, 6.5% annual growth, only 2.9% off peak, and two weeks of vendor capitulation at the auction margin to exploit. Target the north-east and inner-south at 8% below the September median; (2) Northern Beaches and Dee Why units — wait four weeks, then approach the 16 withdrawn listings directly. These are investor-owned, negatively geared, and the owners are about to carry them through Christmas; and (3) Brisbane's Gold Coast canal belt — do not touch it yet. Sanctuary Cove, Broadbeach Waters and Runaway Bay posted zero sales from eight listings this week. That correction is one-third complete.
Upsizers. You are the biggest winner in this market and you may not know it. The gap between the house you own and the house you want is compressing: Sydney's top quartile has fallen 5.3 points further than its bottom quartile since the peak. A $1.3m to $2.2m move in Sydney now costs roughly 8% less in incremental terms than it did in March. The play: sell in the spring window (now), buy in December. The sequencing risk is real but manageable with a long settlement on the purchase and a rent-back on the sale. Best targets: Lower North Shore postponed stock (33 listings), Eastern Suburbs rescheduled stock (42 listings), and Melbourne Inner East (58% clearance — competitive but honest).
Downsizers. Two words: cash flow. Your house is worth 8.6% less than February in Sydney and 7.5% less than 2022 in Melbourne, but the property you are buying down into has fallen just as far, so the trade is neutral — and your superannuation and the downsizer contribution (up to $300,000 per person from a sale) are unaffected. The play: buy the city-fringe terrace or the Inner West/Inner North apartment, not the sea-change, because the regional markets have fallen only 2.2% and offer no discount. If you must go coastal, wait for the Northern Beaches unit capitulation in December. The one thing to avoid: buying a strata property with a special levy or a 2026 cladding order. In this market those are unsellable, and you will bequeath the problem.
Negotiation tactics that are working right now. (1) The postponed-listing approach — 42 Eastern Suburbs and 33 Lower North Shore vendors have rescheduled. Approach before the new campaign, not after. (2) The rent-back — for withdrawn Inner West stock (Drummoyne, Concord, Balmain), offer a 6-month rent-back at market to solve the vendor's bridging problem and take 8–12% off the price. (3) The pre-CPI deadline — make written offers expiring 27 October, the day before the CPI print. A vendor facing an uncertain rate decision on Wednesday will take a firm offer on Tuesday. (4) The unconditional premium — in a market with 35% unreported results and 44% unreported in Sydney, certainty of settlement is worth 2–3% and you should charge for it.
| Source | Data used | As at | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domain auction results (5 capitals, listing-level) | Clearance, scheduled, reported, sold, withdrawn, passed in, medians, values, suburb/region/agency detail | Week ending Sat 24 Oct 2026 (preliminary) | Real-time |
| Cotality Home Value Index | National and capital city values, peak-to-trough, sales, inventory, DOM, vacancy, yields | 30 Sep 2026 | ~3 weeks |
| SQM Research Weekly Rents Index | National and capital city average weekly rents, houses/units/combined | Week ending 20 Oct 2026 | ~4 days |
| RBA / ASX 30-day interbank futures | Cash rate 4.60% (effective 30 Sep 2026); November hike probability | 23 Oct 2026 | Real-time |
| RBA Deputy Governor remarks (Hauser) | Inflation outlook, policy trade-off | 21 Oct 2026 | — |
| ABS labour force | Unemployment 4.7%, −39,300 jobs | 15 Oct 2026 | ~1 week |
| My Housing Market / Property Update | House-vs-unit clearance split, regional medians (prior week, methodology cross-check) | Week ending 17 Oct 2026 | ~1 week |
TRUE clearance rate = total sold ÷ total scheduled. It includes postponed, rescheduled and unreported auctions in the denominator, which Domain's official rate excludes. Deception gap = official clearance − TRUE clearance. Withdrawal rate = withdrawn ÷ scheduled. Classification: <15% normal, 15–25% elevated, >35% crisis. Postponement-to-withdrawal ratio: <0.7:1 withdrawal crisis phase, 0.7–1.5:1 transition, >1.5:1 postponement wave.
Extraction methodology. This week's listing-level data was captured by rendering each Domain capital-city auction results page in a headless Chromium instance and parsing the rendered DOM directly — 316 Sydney, 233 Melbourne, 156 Brisbane, 77 Adelaide and 37 Canberra suburb articles, covering 1,821 individual listings. Status classification uses prefix matching (Sold including sold-prior and sold-after, Withdrawn, Rescheduled/Postponed, Passed). Auction sale prices were parsed preserving the k/m suffix. Region mapping follows the seven-region Sydney and eight-region Melbourne schemas used consistently since May 2026, extended this week with explicit North-West Sydney, Western/South-West Sydney and Regional NSW buckets so that no more than 22% of Sydney listings fall into an unclassified long tail.
Data caveats. Domain's Saturday figures are preliminary and are revised upward as late results arrive; last week's Melbourne headline has since been restated from 53% to 52%. Auction medians are composition-sensitive and can move $200,000+ in a week on a thin base — the Cotality hedonic HVI is the correct measure of value change, and it is reported separately. Sydney's sold-price disclosure rate was 50% this week (122 of 242 sold results withheld), which materially limits comparable evidence. Clearance rate sources diverge: for the week ending 17 October, Domain reported Sydney at 52% while My Housing Market reported 58.7% on a different collection methodology. Both are cited with their source; neither is treated as definitive.
This report is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.