Week ending Saturday 17 October 2026. Preliminary Domain data across the five mainland capitals: 1,763 scheduled auctions, 541 sold, a pooled TRUE clearance rate of 30.7% against a pooled headline of 48.0% — a deception gap of 17.3 percentage points. Total disclosed auction value $517.0 million.
The headline number moved up. The market did not.
| City | Official CR | TRUE CR | Scheduled | Reported | Sold | Withdrawn | Passed In | Median | Total Value | Gap | WD % | Unreported | YoY CR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 52% | 31.1% | 846 | 506 | 263 | 154 | 89 | $1,430,000 | $289.2m | 20.9pp | 18.2% | 40.2% | 70% |
| Melbourne | 53% | 36.7% | 553 | 385 | 203 | 59 | 123 | $930,000 | $178.1m | 16.3pp | 10.7% | 30.4% | 69% |
| Brisbane | 17% | 11.2% | 161 | 104 | 18 | 17 | 69 | $1,031,000 | $21.2m | 5.8pp | 10.6% | 35.4% | 54% |
| Adelaide | 30% | 17.6% | 136 | 79 | 24 | 9 | 46 | $887,000 | $12.6m | 12.4pp | 6.6% | 41.9% | 74% |
| Canberra | 63% | 49.3% | 67 | 52 | 33 | 10 | 9 | $830,000 | $16.0m | 13.7pp | 14.9% | 22.4% | 58% |
| Pooled | 48.0% | 30.7% | 1,763 | 1,126 | 541 | 249 | 336 | — | $517.0m | 17.3pp | 14.1% | 36.1% | — |
| City | Official CR | TRUE CR | Withdrawn % | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 46% → 52% (+6) | 27.8% → 31.1% (+3.3) | 21.8% → 18.2% (−3.6) | $1.370m → $1.430m |
| Melbourne | 58% → 53% (−5) | 41.8% → 36.7% (−5.1) | 11.0% → 10.7% | $950.5K → $930K |
| Brisbane | 18% → 17% (−1) | 12.9% → 11.2% (−1.7) | 8.4% → 10.6% (+2.2) | $1.92m → $1.031m (thin base) |
| Adelaide | 45% → 30% (−15) | 26.5% → 17.6% (−8.9) | 3.4% → 6.6% (+3.2) | $885K → $887K |
| Canberra | 37% → 63% (+26) | 29.3% → 49.3% (+20.0) | 29.3% → 14.9% (−14.4) | $850K → $830K |
1. The unemployment shock killed the November hike — and the market barely noticed. ABS released September labour force on Thursday 15 October: unemployment held at 4.7%, the highest in the post-COVID era, with 39,300 jobs lost against expectations of +20,000 and participation falling to 66.8%. The ASX 30-day interbank futures repriced violently — the probability of a 25bp hike to 4.85% on 3 November collapsed from 27% on 14 October to 16% on 15 October, and markets no longer fully price a hike even by December. This is the first genuine macro reprieve since February. Yet the auction market's response was a 6-point headline improvement in Sydney and a 5-point deterioration in Melbourne. Rate relief has stopped the bleeding; it has not restarted the market.
2. Canberra's six-week withdrawal crisis has broken. Withdrawals fell from 29.3% to 14.9%, TRUE clearance jumped from 29.3% to 49.3% — the largest single-week improvement in any capital this year, and the first week since late August in which Canberra vendors stopped pulling stock. Canberra is 6.2% below its May 2022 peak and the only capital with negative annual growth (−1.6%) that is also small enough to clear quickly. It is the first market in the country to finish its correction.
3. Adelaide cracked. The quiet over-performer of the entire 2026 downturn fell from 45% to 30% headline, 17.6% TRUE, with 41.9% of scheduled auctions going unreported and pass-ins rising to 46 of 79 reported results. Adelaide's 0.6% vacancy and 6.5% annual growth had insulated it; this week the insulation failed.
4. Sydney's postponement wave deepened to 1.55:1. Listing-level extraction shows 199 postponed against 128 withdrawn across 711 extracted listings — up from 1.12:1 last week. The Northern Beaches ran at 3.0:1 (47% of all listings postponed), the Lower North Shore at 2.54:1, the Hills District at 2.33:1, the Eastern Suburbs at 2.36:1. These vendors are not capitulating; they are parking stock and hoping spring delivers. That is not strength — it is a queue.
The official clearance rate rose this week because fewer vendors withdrew, not because more buyers turned up. Sales across the five capitals fell to 541 from 605 on a smaller scheduled base (1,763 vs 1,917). Sydney's headline improvement came with a median that jumped $60,000 — a composition shift toward higher-priced stock, not a value gain. Melbourne's volume fell 22% week-on-week (553 from 710) in the first weekend after Victoria's reserve-price disclosure regime moved to full enforcement.
The macro backdrop remains unambiguously negative for prices even as the rate outlook improves. Cotality's September HVI recorded the sixth consecutive monthly fall (−1.1%), taking the national market 5.2% below its March 2026 peak, with 97% of capital city suburbs declining over the three months to 30 September. Days on market have stretched to 39 from 23 a year ago, total inventory is up 23.1%, and sales are down 19.1%. The RBA sits at 4.60% — the highest since November 2011 — with the next decision on 3 November.
The honest read: this is a market being held up by vendors' reluctance to sell rather than by buyers' willingness to buy. That distinction is everything for anyone writing a cheque in the next ninety days.
Sydney scheduled 846 auctions, the highest weekly volume since early September, and reported only 506 of them (40.2% unreported). Of the 506 reported, 263 sold, 154 were withdrawn and 89 passed in — a 52% headline that flatters a 31.1% true clearance rate by 20.9 percentage points.
The withdrawal rate improved to 18.2% from 21.8%, which is the single best data point in this week's Sydney release. But the improvement is not what it appears. Listing-level extraction across 343 suburb articles and 711 individual listings shows 199 postponements against 128 withdrawals — a postponement-to-withdrawal ratio of 1.55:1, a clear deterioration from 1.12:1 last week and deep into Postponement Wave territory (>1.5:1).
Translation: agents are no longer letting vendors pull listings. They are rescheduling them — rolling them into the last three weekends of October and the first two of November. That keeps the withdrawal statistic clean while pushing the problem forward. When you see a book with 19 listings and 12 postponements and zero withdrawals, you are looking at an agency managing its own metrics, not a market finding a floor.
The median rose to $1,430,000 from $1,370,000. Do not read that as capital growth. The high end transacted this week — Bronte alone produced $25.2 million (522-524 Bronte Rd) and $12.12 million (160D Macpherson St), with Rose Bay at $9.7m, Tamarama at $8.6m and a Darlinghurst penthouse at $7.7m. When five eight-figure sales land in one weekend, the median follows them up while the broad market continues to soften. Cotality's own analysis confirms the mechanism: the top quartile of Sydney properties has fallen 5.3 percentage points more than the bottom quartile since the peak.
The veteran's read: Sydney is in a two-speed market and the speeds are diverging. Trophy stock in the east is liquid at a price. Everything between $1.2m and $2m in the north-west and the Shire is stuck — priced at March, bid at October, and rescheduled indefinitely. The 40% unreported rate tells you what agents think of publishing those results.
Melbourne scheduled only 553 auctions, down 22% from 710 the previous week, and reported 385. Sold 203, withdrawn 59, passed in 123. The 53% headline (36.7% TRUE) is a five-point deterioration in both measures — Melbourne is now the second-weakest true clearing market among the majors, ahead only of Brisbane and Adelaide.
The volume collapse has a specific cause worth understanding. Victoria's reserve price disclosure laws moved from commencement (1 October) to full enforcement on 16 October. From that date, the seller's reserve must be published at least seven days before a residential auction, and agents face penalties for underquoting. This is the most significant structural change to Victorian auction mechanics in a decade, and this weekend was its first live test. Vendors and agents who had been relying on a low quoted range to manufacture competition now face a hard, public number a week out. The rational response to being forced to show your cards is to not play — hence 553 auctions instead of 710.
Inside the numbers, Melbourne remains the only capital where units outperform houses (68.0% vs 58.8% clearance on the prior week's MyHousingMarket read, and the pattern holds in our extraction). Units are where the affordability-constrained demand now sits. Houses above $1.5m in the inner east are where the standoff is.
Region-level extraction across 198 suburb articles and 465 listings: Inner North 64% sold (16 of 25), Inner South 61% (20 of 33), CBD/Inner 56%, Inner East 46%, North Growth 47%. The West Growth corridor collapsed to 14% sold — 2 sales from 14 listings with 4 postponements and 6 pass-ins. South East Growth carried the worst withdrawal rate at 23%.
The postcode-level detail: Mickleham 9 listings produced 2 sales, 2 withdrawals and 4 postponements. Craigieburn 10 listings produced 5 sales — the only growth-corridor book holding up. Broadmeadows had three listings and three postponements. Caulfield South 4 (1 sold, 1 WD, 2 PP), Doncaster 5 (2, 2, 1), Glen Waverley 7 (3, 1, 2).
Median $930,000, down from $950,500. Compositional, but directionally consistent with a market where the $1.2m–$2m buyer has withdrawn.
Two consecutive weeks below 20%. Brisbane scheduled 161 auctions, reported 104, and sold 18. Sixty-nine passed in — a 70% pass-in rate on reported results. TRUE clearance 11.2%. This is the weakest auction market of any Australian capital since April 2020, and it is happening in a city whose values are still 5.9% higher than a year ago.
That contradiction is the entire Brisbane story. Cotality recorded Brisbane's sharpest monthly fall of any capital in September at −1.5%, with sales down 27.2% year-on-year — the steepest turnover collapse in the country. Values are falling fast but from a high base, and vendors have not yet accepted where the clearing price now sits. The consequence is a 70% pass-in rate: sellers are setting reserves 10–15% above what the room will pay.
Listing-level extraction across 136 suburb articles and 198 listings: 32 sold (16.2%), 31 withdrawn (15.7%), 27 postponed, 108 passed in. The postponement-to-withdrawal ratio of 0.87:1 puts Brisbane in Transition phase — but the transitions here are into pass-in, not into sale.
The damage is concentrated in the investor and apartment corridors. Labrador: 3 listings, 0 sold, 3 withdrawn. Surfers Paradise: 5 listings, 0 sold, 1 withdrawn, 3 postponed. West End: 6 listings, 1 sold, 2 withdrawn, 1 postponed, 2 passed in. Robina 2 (0 sold, 2 withdrawn), South Brisbane 3 (0 sold, 3 passed in), Carindale 3 (0 sold, 1 postponed, 2 passed in), Coorparoo 2 (0 sold, 2 passed in), Deception Bay 5 (1 sold, 4 passed in), Paradise Waters 2 (0 sold, 2 passed in).
What did sell was coastal and quality: Mermaid Beach $4.45m (17 Ocean St), Holland Park $3.118m, Mermaid Waters $2.648m, Enoggera $1.96m, Elanora $1.8m, Mount Gravatt $1.775m. The Gold Coast and the blue-chip Brisbane inner south are still clearing when priced correctly. The investor apartment belt from Labrador to Southport is not.
Adelaide had been the most disciplined auction market in the country through the entire 2026 downturn — rarely above 15% withdrawals, consistently the highest reporting transparency, and until this week a genuine over-performer. This week it fell 15 points on the headline and 8.9 points on TRUE, to 30% and 17.6%.
Scheduled 136, reported 79 (41.9% unreported — Adelaide's transparency advantage vanished in a single week), sold 24, withdrawn 9, passed in 46. That pass-in count is the tell: 46 of 79 reported results passed in, a 58% pass-in rate, against 43 pass-ins from 87 reported the previous week.
Listing-level extraction is thin but consistent: 70 suburb articles, 85 listings, 24 sold (28.2%), 8 withdrawn, 8 postponed, 45 passed in. The stress is concentrated in the northern corridor and the Adelaide Hills: Mount Barker 3 (0 sold, 1 withdrawn, 2 postponed), Northfield 3 (0, 0, 3 passed), Richmond 3 (0, 0, 3 passed), Ingle Farm 2 (0, 0, 2), Panorama 2 (0, 0, 2), Blair Athol 2 (0, 0, 2).
The top of the market held: Underdale $1,172,500, Athelstone $1,150,000, Kersbrook $1,080,000, Campbelltown $960,000, Hillcrest $903,000. Median $887,000, essentially flat on last week's $885,000.
Adelaide's structural case remains the strongest in the country — 0.6% vacancy, 3.8% annual asking-price growth, the smallest peak-to-trough decline of any mainland capital at −2.9%. But a 30% headline is a warning shot. The city's vendors have been pricing to a market that no longer exists at the margin.
This is the number of the week and it deserves to be read carefully. Canberra scheduled only 67 auctions — a small market — and reported 52. Sold 33, withdrawn 10, passed in 9. Official 63%, TRUE 49.3%, withdrawals 14.9% down from 29.3%.
For five consecutive weeks Canberra ran a withdrawal crisis: 20.7%, then 19.5%, then 29.3%, then 22.5%, then 29.3%. This week it stopped. Ten withdrawals from 67 scheduled is normal-market behaviour, and 33 sales from 52 reported is a functional auction market.
Listing-level extraction across 42 suburb articles and 59 listings: 33 sold (55.9%), 10 withdrawn (16.9%), 7 postponed, 9 passed in — a postponement-to-withdrawal ratio of 0.7:1, the only capital in Withdrawal Crisis territory on that measure while simultaneously delivering the best clearance. That combination is what a market looks like when the marginal seller has already exited.
The results were broad, not concentrated: Scullin 2 of 2, Macgregor 2 of 2, Wright 2 of 2, Narrabundah 2 of 3, Kingston 2 of 4, Turner, Curtin, Yarralumla, Weston, Rivett, Melba, Florey, Duffy, Bonython, Banks all clearing. Top prices: Turner $2,000,000, Curtin $1,860,000, Wright $1,038,800, Rivett $955,000, Melba $920,000.
The veteran's read: Canberra is 6.2% below its May 2022 peak, down 1.6% annually, carries the second-highest vacancy rate in the country at 1.9%, and has just cleared half its auction stock in a week. That is what a completed correction looks like — prices have fallen enough that buyers who were waiting have started bidding. If you have been waiting for a signal that the cycle has a bottom somewhere, this is the first credible one.
Extracted from 343 suburb articles and 711 individual listings on the Domain Sydney auction results page for the week ending 17 October 2026. Region mapping covers seven defined Sydney regions plus an "Other" bucket for outer-metro and regional NSW.
| Region | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Passed | Sold % | WD % | PP % | P:W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inner West | 73 | 42 | 13 | 14 | 4 | 58% | 18% | 19% | 1.08:1 |
| St George/Sutherland | 31 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 52% | 13% | 19% | 1.50:1 |
| City Fringe | 45 | 21 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 47% | 18% | 31% | 1.75:1 |
| Eastern Suburbs | 78 | 35 | 11 | 26 | 6 | 45% | 14% | 33% | 2.36:1 |
| Other (outer/regional NSW) | 361 | 146 | 71 | 84 | 60 | 40% | 20% | 23% | 1.18:1 |
| Northern Beaches | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 38% | 16% | 47% | 3.00:1 |
| Lower North Shore | 74 | 23 | 13 | 33 | 5 | 31% | 18% | 45% | 2.54:1 |
| Hills District | 17 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 29% | 18% | 41% | 2.33:1 |
| Total | 711 | 300 | 128 | 199 | 84 | 42% | 18% | 28% | 1.55:1 |
73 listings, 42 sold, 13 withdrawn, 14 postponed. A 1.08:1 postponement ratio is the closest thing to normal behaviour in this city. Balmain produced 3 sales from 6 listings; Annandale sold $4.25m (14 Annandale St); Lilyfield $3.5m (58 Cecily St).
The inner west is doing what it always does in a downturn: it is trading. Stock is predominantly Federation-era houses and small apartment blocks in the $1.2m–$2.5m band, and that band still has owner-occupier depth because it is where families with dual incomes and school catchments converge. BresicWhitney Balmain pushed 5 of 8 through (63%), BresicWhitney Inner West 3 of 7 with zero withdrawals.
Buyer's Agent Take: This is where you buy in Sydney right now. Not because it is cheap — it isn't — but because it is liquid, which means you can exit. A 1.08:1 ratio and 58% sold tells you the bid-ask spread has closed. Target the Ashfield–Croydon–Concord corridor where the $1.4m–$1.8m house still clears, and avoid anything with a development application attached. The Inner West's weakness is not price, it is the volume of off-the-plan apartment stock hitting settlement in 2027.
31 listings, 16 sold, only 4 withdrawn (13%), 6 postponed, 5 passed in. Second-best sold rate in the city and the lowest withdrawal rate of any defined region. Sylvania had 4 listings, all four postponed and none sold — an outlier, and a warning for that specific pocket. Cronulla produced the region's headline result at $6.4m (19/22-24 Ozone St).
Buyer's Agent Take: The Shire is being carried by owner-occupiers who cannot afford the inner west and will not leave the water. It is the most defensible market in Sydney on a five-year view and the least exciting on a twelve-month view. Buy here for lifestyle and holding cost, not for capital growth. The Sylvania zero-sale book is a signal about the $2m+ end of the peninsula, not the region.
45 listings, 21 sold, 8 withdrawn, 14 postponed, only 2 passed in. A 1.75:1 ratio and a 31% postponement rate. Darlinghurst's $7.7m penthouse (54/18 College St) was the standout; Randwick sold $3.86m (187 Rainbow St) and $3.595m at Potts Point. But Randwick also recorded 7 listings with 3 sold and 4 postponed.
Buyer's Agent Take: The fringe is a tale of two asset classes. Apartments in Elizabeth Bay, Potts Point and Rushcutters Bay are being postponed in bulk — Richard & Wrench's Elizabeth Bay/Potts Point book had 7 listings and 6 postponements, one of the most parked books in the state. Terraces in Redfern, Alexandria and Waterloo are trading. If you are buying an apartment here, you have unusual leverage on any listing that has been postponed once already — the vendor has already demonstrated they will not meet the first bid. Wait for the second.
78 listings, 35 sold, 11 withdrawn, 26 postponed, 6 passed in. A 2.36:1 ratio is not a healthy market, but the top end is transacting at extraordinary levels: Bronte $25.2m and $12.12m, Rose Bay $9.7m, Tamarama $8.6m, Dover Heights $5.35m, Bronte $3.67m. Coogee carried the most stress with 13 listings producing 5 sales, 3 withdrawals and 4 postponements.
Buyer's Agent Take: The eastern suburbs prestige belt is not in a downturn — it is in a liquidity event. Trophy homes with harbour views and Bronte beachfront are clearing at prices that would have looked strong in March. Everything priced between $2.5m and $4.5m is being rescheduled in the hope that a cashed-up buyer appears. If you have $3m–$4m and can move quickly, this is the best negotiating window in the east since 2022 — but only on stock that has already failed once at auction. Ray White Eastern Beaches' 9-listing book with 5 postponements and 3 sales is exactly where to start.
32 listings, 12 sold, 5 withdrawn, 15 postponed, zero passed in. This is the most distorted region in Sydney and possibly the country. Almost half of all Northern Beaches auction stock was rescheduled — and not one listing passed in. That combination is only possible if agents are withdrawing stock from the auction process before it can fail.
Belle Property Northern Beaches ran 19 listings, 7 sold, 0 withdrawn, 12 postponed — the largest parked book of any agency in Sydney. Manly had 7 listings: 2 sold, 0 withdrawn, 5 postponed. Mona Vale still produced $4.5m (78 Surfview Rd).
Buyer's Agent Take: The Northern Beaches is running a coordinated deferral campaign. Zero pass-ins across 32 listings is not a market outcome, it is a management decision. Sellers here believe spring will bring Sydney's traditional sea-change buyer. Some of them will be right. Most will be listing again in the first week of November with a 60-day deadline and a mortgage to service. Mark your calendar for the first two weekends of November and bring a lowball. The stock that gets postponed twice is the stock that gets sold at a discount.
74 listings, 23 sold, 13 withdrawn, 33 postponed, 5 passed in. A 2.54:1 ratio, worse than the Beaches on absolute postponement count and the second-largest parked book in the city. Mosman: 9 listings, 1 sold, 3 withdrawn, 4 postponed. St Ives: 7 listings, 1 sold, 2 withdrawn, 4 postponed. Turramurra: 4 listings, 0 sold, 0 withdrawn, 4 postponed. Ray White Upper North Shore ran 14 listings with 4 sold and 8 postponed.
Buyer's Agent Take: The upper north shore is the epicentre of Sydney's "spring will save me" psychology. St Ives and Turramurra are carrying the double burden of $2.5m+ houses and a buyer pool whose borrowing capacity fell by roughly a fifth across four rate hikes. When a suburb records zero sales and four postponements from four listings, the reserve is not 5% too high — it is 15% too high. This is where the November discount will be deepest.
17 listings, 5 sold, 3 withdrawn, 7 postponed, 2 passed in. A 2.33:1 ratio and a 29% sold rate — the lowest of any defined Sydney region. Castle Hill: 6 listings, 2 sold, 3 withdrawn, 1 postponed. Epping: 5 listings, 1 sold, 3 withdrawn, 1 postponed. Cherrybrook produced $2.43m and Bella Vista's new-estate stock continues to sit.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Hills is the mortgage-belt stress point of this cycle and it will stay that way. These are $1.6m–$2.2m houses bought on 2021–2023 borrowing capacity, now carrying 6.4% loans, in a corridor with a live development pipeline and no scarcity premium. Uniland Epping/Castle Hill pushed 1 of 8 through with 3 withdrawals; Tracy Yap Realty 1 of 5 with 3 withdrawals and a 60% withdrawal rate. Those are the books of agencies whose vendors are underwater on their expectations. Avoid new-estate stock entirely; if you must buy here, buy established, buy the worst house on the best street, and buy in November.
More than half of all extracted Sydney listings (361 of 711) fall outside the seven defined regions — the Central Coast, Illawarra, Newcastle, the Blue Mountains, the Southern Highlands and beyond. At 40% sold and a 1.18:1 ratio, this bucket is performing better than the Lower North Shore and the Hills. That is a genuinely important signal: the sea-change and tree-change markets, which ran hottest in 2021–22, are now more liquid than Sydney's blue-chip middle ring.
Buyer's Agent Take: Regional NSW is where the affordability migration has landed and stayed. Remote work is sticky, and $1.1m buys a house in the Illawarra that would cost $2.4m in the inner west. The risk is infrastructure and employment depth; the reward is yield. If you are an investor chasing cash flow rather than capital growth, this bucket — not the Hills — is where the numbers work.
Computed from listing-level extraction, minimum four listings per agency (Sydney) and five (Melbourne). Push-through = sold ÷ total listings. Withdrawal % = withdrawn ÷ total listings.
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Push-through | WD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BresicWhitney East | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 80% | 0% |
| Hudson McHugh | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 67% | 33% |
| Pello — Northern Suburbs | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 67% | 17% |
| BresicWhitney Balmain | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 63% | 13% |
| Adrian William | 13 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 62% | 8% |
| Pulse Property Agents | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 60% | 0% |
| PPD Real Estate | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 57% | 29% |
| Ray White TKG | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 57% | 0% |
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Push-through | WD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy Yap Realty (Epping/Chatswood/Castle Hill) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20% | 60% |
| Harris Tripp | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| Highland Sutherland Shire & St George | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13% | 50% |
| Ray White Sutherland Shire — Menai | 6 | 2 | 3 | 33% | 50% |
| The Marshall Group | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17% | 50% |
| Uniland (Epping & Castle Hill) | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13% | 38% |
| Stone (Beecroft/Castle Hill/Epping) | 11 | 5 | 4 | 45% | 36% |
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Postponed | Postponed % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belle Property Northern Beaches | 19 | 7 | 12 | 63% |
| Ray White Upper North Shore | 14 | 4 | 8 | 57% |
| Richardson & Wrench Elizabeth Bay / Potts Point | 7 | 1 | 6 | 86% |
| Ray White Eastern Beaches | 9 | 3 | 5 | 56% |
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Push-through | WD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burbank Australia | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 0% |
| Gary Peer | 21 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 67% | 0% |
| Harcourts Rata & Co | 18 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 67% | 0% |
| Marshall White Boroondara | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 57% | 14% |
| Jellis Craig & Company | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 54% | 15% |
| Jellis Craig Doncaster | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 50% | 0% |
| Jellis Craig Glen Waverley | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 50% | 13% |
| VICPROP Manningham | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 50% | 50% |
| Woodards Carnegie & Bentleigh | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 33% |
| Ray White Wantirna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17% | 33% |
| Barry Plant Manningham | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 20% |
Three things leap out.
First, the 100% books are real. BresicWhitney East (8 of 10, zero withdrawals) and Harcourts Rata (12 of 18, zero withdrawals) are not lucky — they are pricing correctly and their vendors are listening. When an agency clears 80% while the city clears 31%, the difference is the reserve, full stop. If you are selling in this market, those are the names to interview, and the conversation to have with them is about the number, not the marketing.
Second, the parked books are the leading indicator for November. Belle Property Northern Beaches at 12 postponements from 19, Richardson & Wrench Elizabeth Bay at 6 from 7, Ray White Upper North Shore at 8 from 14. These agencies are not failing — they are deferring. Deferral works exactly once. The stock that reappears in November will arrive with vendors who have already spent three months paying a mortgage on a house they cannot sell, and their price expectations will have moved. That is your buying window, and it is six weeks away.
Third, the red flags cluster geographically, not randomly. Tracy Yap (Epping/Chatswood/Castle Hill, 60% withdrawal), Uniland (Epping/Castle Hill, 38%), Stone (Beecroft/Castle Hill/Epping, 36%) and Highland (Sutherland/St George, 50%) are all operating in the two regions with the weakest sold rates. An agency cannot create demand, but it can choose whether to take a listing at a price the market will not pay. High withdrawal rates are a symptom of over-quoting to win the listing — and in a market where buyers can see every comparable online, over-quoting no longer works. It just burns ninety days.
SQM Research National Vacancy Rates, September 2026 (released 13 October 2026), and the Weekly Rents Index for the week ending 12 October 2026.
| Market | Vacancy Rate | vs Aug 2026 | Vacancies | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 1.4% | ▲ 1.3% | 42,290 | Tight, easing |
| Sydney | 1.8% | ▲ 1.7% | 13,331 | Easing |
| Melbourne | 1.9% | ▲ 1.8% | 10,127 | Easing |
| Canberra | 1.9% | ▼ 2.1% | 1,169 | Elevated, easing |
| Brisbane | 0.9% | Flat | 3,222 | Very tight |
| Perth | 0.6% | Flat | 1,189 | Critically tight |
| Adelaide | 0.6% | Flat | 948 | Critically tight |
| Darwin | 0.6% | ▲ 0.4% | 162 | Very tight |
| Hobart | 0.5% | ▼ 0.6% | 127 | Critically tight |
National vacancy has now risen for two consecutive months, from 1.3% to 1.4%, with 42,290 dwellings available against 41,039 in August and 1.2% a year ago. The easing is entirely a Sydney–Melbourne–Canberra story. Five capitals — Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Darwin and Hobart — remain below 1%, and three of them below 0.7%.
| City | Combined Rent | Weekly Chg | Monthly | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $915.61 | +$1.03 | +0.7% | +4.5% |
| Perth | $795.82 | −$1.66 | −0.3% | +5.0% |
| Brisbane | $754.49 | +$0.56 | 0.0% | +7.2% |
| Darwin | $735.35 | +$8.71 | +0.6% | +13.9% |
| Melbourne | $691.97 | −$1.62 | −0.7% | +5.7% |
| Canberra | $686.22 | −$1.26 | −0.2% | +4.8% |
| Adelaide | $647.50 | +$2.12 | −0.7% | +4.5% |
| Hobart | $600.69 | +$6.15 | −0.5% | +9.5% |
| National | $704.76 | −$0.85 | +0.3% | +7.6% |
| Cap city avg | $794.57 | +$0.47 | −0.1% | +5.1% |
The critical detail is inside the split. Nationally, house rents rose 1.6% over the month while unit rents fell 1.6% — and unit rents declined in seven of eight capital cities. SQM's managing director Louis Christopher is explicit that the unit market is the leading indicator: houses are enjoying the normal spring lift, but units are where tenants are finally getting relief.
| City | Gross Yield — Houses | Gross Yield — Units | Median Value | Combined Rent (annual) | Gross Yield on Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 2.91% | 4.37% | $1,198,596 | $47,612 | 3.97% |
| Melbourne | 3.31% | 4.54% | $780,550 | $35,982 | 4.61% |
| Brisbane | 3.27% | 4.13% | $1,048,880 | $39,233 | 3.74% |
| Adelaide | 3.27% | 4.52% | $928,560 | $33,670 | 3.63% |
| Perth | 3.72% | 4.53% | $975,022 | $41,383 | 4.24% |
| Canberra | 3.38% | 5.15% | $861,744 | $35,683 | 4.14% |
| National | 3.84% | 4.85% | $899,236 | $36,648 | 4.08% |
Against a new investor variable rate that now clusters in the 6.2%–6.5% band after four 25bp hikes and the majors' October repricing, the national gross yield of 3.84% implies a negative carry of roughly 2.4 to 2.7 percentage points before costs, management and vacancy. On a $900,000 Melbourne investment property at 80% gearing, that is approximately $17,000–$19,000 per year out of pocket before tax, and the negative-gearing offset that used to absorb it has been removed for established dwellings purchased after 12 May 2026.
| Scenario | Property | Rent/wk | Rent/yr | Loan (80%) | Interest at 6.35% | Shortfall (pre-tax) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney house | $1,200,000 | $915 | $47,612 | $960,000 | $60,960 | −$13,348 |
| Melbourne house | $780,000 | $692 | $35,982 | $624,000 | $39,624 | −$3,642 |
| Brisbane house | $1,050,000 | $754 | $39,233 | $840,000 | $53,340 | −$14,107 |
| Adelaide house | $929,000 | $648 | $33,670 | $743,200 | $47,193 | −$13,523 |
| Perth house | $975,000 | $796 | $41,383 | $780,000 | $49,530 | −$8,147 |
| Canberra unit | $650,000 | $600 | $31,200 | $520,000 | $33,020 | −$1,820 |
The only place the arithmetic nearly works is Melbourne and Canberra units. Everywhere else, the investor is funding a two-and-a-half-point gap out of salary, with no negative-gearing offset on established stock and no capital growth to show for it — national values are 5.2% below peak and falling. This is why investor lending has collapsed and why the rental market is now easing: the supply response that a 0.6% vacancy rate should have triggered is being strangled by the tax settings.
| Signal | This week | Prior | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | 4.60% | Hold since 30 Sep |
| ASX hike odds, 3 Nov | 16% (15 Oct) | 27% (14 Oct) | ▼ Sharply |
| Unemployment | 4.7% (Sep) | 4.7% (Aug, revised up) | Highest in 5 years |
| Employment change | −39,300 | +29,300 | ▼ Missed +20,000 |
| Cotality national HVI | −1.1% MoM (Sep) | −1.1% (Aug) | 6th straight fall |
| National median | $899,236 | — | −5.2% from peak |
| Days on market | 39 days | 23 a year ago | ▲ Slower |
| Total inventory | +23.1% YoY | — | ▲ Rising |
| SQM national vacancy | 1.4% | 1.3% | ▲ Easing |
| ASX asking prices, national | −0.3% MoM | — | ▼ Soft |
Two forces are now pulling in opposite directions. The rate outlook has genuinely improved — a November hold is now an 84% probability, ANZ is the only major still forecasting a hike, and the market has stopped fully pricing a move even by December. The price outlook has not. Cotality has six consecutive monthly declines, 97% of capital city suburbs falling over three months, days on market up 70% year-on-year, and inventory building despite new listings being down 9.2% because the clearance rate has fallen faster than the listing flow.
CommBank's economics team now forecasts a 9% national peak-to-trough decline, with Sydney −13% and Melbourne −12%; an industry survey published on 14 October put the Sydney and Melbourne dip at 11%, which would take both cities back to February 2021 levels. Those are not outlier calls. They are the median institutional view.
Volumes should recover modestly as the postponed stock from the last three weeks returns. Expect Sydney to schedule 800+, Melbourne 650–750 (still suppressed by the reserve-disclosure transition), Brisbane 150–180, Adelaide 130–150, Canberra 60–75.
Watch three things: Sydney's withdrawal rate — if it holds below 18% for a second week while postponements fall, the market is genuinely stabilising; Melbourne's volume — a second consecutive weekend near 550 confirms the new disclosure regime is permanently reducing auction supply; and Adelaide — a second week under 35% confirms the insulation has failed rather than one bad Saturday.
Most likely outcome: pooled TRUE clearance 30–33%, no material change in prices.
The spring selling season will be the largest supply test since 2022, and it will fail. Total inventory is already up 23.1% year-on-year; new listings are down 9.2%, meaning the overhang is unsold stock, not new supply. That overhang — the 199 postponed Sydney listings, the 76 in Melbourne, the 27 in Brisbane — returns to market in November and December, into a buyer pool whose borrowing capacity has been cut by four rate hikes.
Base case (60%): National HVI falls a further 1.5–2.5% over the quarter. Sydney −2.5% to −3.5% (taking peak-to-trough to roughly −11%), Melbourne −2% to −3% (−9.5% to −10.5% from peak), Brisbane −3% to −4% (the fastest-falling market in the country), Adelaide −1.5% to −2.5%, Perth −1% to −2%, Canberra flat to −0.5%.
Downside (25%): A December hike, or a hot Q3 CPI print on 28 October above 4.0% trimmed mean, pushes the RBA back to 4.85%. Sydney and Melbourne add another 2 points of decline; Brisbane breaks 8% peak-to-trough in a quarter.
Upside (15%): Unemployment at 4.7% keeps the RBA on hold through February, the ASX hike probability falls below 10%, and the spring overhang clears at a discount rather than a collapse. National values bottom in Q1 2027 with a −7% peak-to-trough rather than −9%.
| City | Base case (peak-to-trough) | From today | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | −12% | −3% to −4% | Affordability ceiling, top-quartile unwind |
| Melbourne | −11% | −3% to −4% | Supply overhang, reserve disclosure, weak investor |
| Brisbane | −9% | −4% to −5% | Turnover collapse, investor exit, 2021–23 overpay |
| Adelaide | −5% | −2% | Still the tightest fundamentals, but late to fall |
| Perth | −8% | −2% | Strongest annual growth, highest hurdle |
| Canberra | −7% and bottoming | 0% to +1% | Correction complete, vacancy normalising |
| National | −9% | −3% | Rate relief in H2 2027, supply shortfall reasserts |
The shape of the recovery matters more than the number. Sydney and Melbourne will bottom first but recover slowest — their affordability ceiling is structural, not cyclical. Brisbane and Perth will fall furthest from here because they rose furthest and latest. Canberra has already bottomed. And regional markets will outperform capitals for the third consecutive year, on 5.6% annual growth versus −1.8% across the capitals.
First home buyers. This is the best entry window since 2021, but not for the reason you think. Prices are down 5–9% from peak, but borrowing capacity is down more — which means the deposit is now the binding constraint, not the price. Three specific moves: (1) Buy in Canberra now. It is the only market where the correction is complete, vacancy has normalised to 1.9%, and 49.3% TRUE clearance means you can transact without a 20% discount fantasy. ACT also abolished stamp duty for all first home buyers from 1 July 2026 with no cap — on a $850,000 purchase that is roughly $34,000 saved, which is most of a 5% deposit. (2) Buy a unit in Melbourne's Inner North — Brunswick, Coburg, Preston — where 64% sold, units outperform houses, and the $650,000–$800,000 band has genuine depth. (3) Ignore the Hills and the outer north-west. New-estate stock in Kellyville, Mickleham and Craigieburn has a development pipeline behind it and no scarcity value; you will be competing with the next estate release for a decade.
Investors. The arithmetic does not work in most of the country and you should be honest about that. National gross yield 3.84% against 6.2–6.5% debt is a 2.5-point negative carry, and the May 2026 Budget removed negative gearing on established dwellings purchased after 12 May 2026. Three places where the numbers are defensible: (1) Canberra units — 5.15% gross yield, 1.9% vacancy and a completed correction is the only combination in the country that clears a 6.3% loan at close to neutral. (2) Melbourne units — 4.54% yield, the only capital where unit clearance (68%) is beating houses (58.8%), and prices already 7.5% below the 2022 record. (3) Regional NSW — the "Other" bucket cleared 40% this week against 29% in the Hills, and yields above 4.5% are available in the Illawarra and Central Coast. Avoid: Brisbane investor apartments (Labrador 0 from 3, Surfers Paradise 0 from 5), Sydney new estates, and anything bought for depreciation that you would not hold for fifteen years.
Upsizers. You are the biggest winner in this market and you may not realise it. The gap between the house you own and the house you want has narrowed, because the top quartile has fallen 5.3pp more than the bottom quartile in Sydney and 6.6pp more in Melbourne. If you own a $1.5m house in the inner west and want a $3m house in the east, your entry cost has fallen by roughly $80,000 more than your exit price. Sell first, then buy — and buy the postponed stock. The Northern Beaches has 15 postponed listings from 32 and zero pass-ins; those vendors are six weeks from capitulation. Target Manly, Fairlight and Balgowlah at $2.5m–$3.5m, and expect to transact 8–12% below the March asking price on anything that has been rescheduled twice.
Downsizers. The worst market in fifteen years to be trading down in, and the best in fifteen years to be cashing out of a large house. Sydney's median auction price of $1,430,000 and the trophy market's extraordinary liquidity — Bronte $25.2m, Rose Bay $9.7m, Tamarama $8.6m — mean that if you own quality, someone will pay for it. But the stock you want to buy into (single-level, lift access, walkable, $900,000–$1.4m) is exactly the stock with the deepest buyer competition from first home buyers and investors. Strategy: sell the house at auction in November while trophy liquidity holds, rent for six to twelve months, and buy the apartment in the February–April 2027 trough. The rent you pay for a year ($45,000 at $865/week) is less than the further 3–4% decline on a $1.3m apartment ($39,000–$52,000) — and you get optionality instead of a forced purchase.
| Source | Data used | Reference date |
|---|---|---|
| Domain.com.au auction results | City clearance rates, scheduled/reported/sold/withdrawn/passed, medians, total sales, listing-level extraction across five capitals | Week ending 17 Oct 2026 (preliminary) |
| Cotality Home Value Index | National and capital city monthly/quarterly/annual changes, medians, peak-to-trough, DOM, inventory, turnover, 97% suburb decline | Data to 30 Sep 2026, released 1 Oct 2026 |
| SQM Research — National Vacancy Rates | Vacancy by capital, dwelling counts, advertised rent growth | September 2026, released 13 Oct 2026 |
| SQM Research — Weekly Rents Index | Combined/house/unit weekly rents, monthly and annual change | Week ending 12 Oct 2026 |
| SQM Research — Weekly Asking Prices | House/unit/combined asking prices, monthly and annual change | Week ending 13 Oct 2026 |
| ABS Labour Force, Australia | Unemployment rate, employment change, participation | September 2026, released 15 Oct 2026 |
| ASX RBA Rate Tracker | Market-implied probability of 25bp move at 3 Nov meeting | Market close 15 Oct 2026 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | Cash rate target 4.60% effective 30 Sep 2026; next decision 3 Nov 2026 | 30 Sep 2026 |
| CommBank Economics / industry survey | Peak-to-trough housing forecasts | 14 Oct 2026 |
| Consumer Affairs Victoria | Reserve price disclosure obligations, 7 days pre-auction; enforcement from 16 Oct 2026 | 1 Oct 2026 |
Listing-level data was captured from the Domain auction results pages for each capital on Saturday 17 October 2026 via browser-based DOM extraction after full-page lazy-load (Sydney 343 suburb articles / 711 listings; Melbourne 198 / 465; Brisbane 136 / 198; Adelaide 70 / 85; Canberra 42 / 59). Status classification uses prefix matching across Domain's full status vocabulary — Sold, Sold prior to auction, Sold after auction count as sold; Withdrawn as withdrawn; Rescheduled and Postponed as postponed; Passed in as passed in. Exact-match logic undercounts postponements materially and is not used.
Region mapping applies a defined suburb-to-region dictionary for Sydney (seven regions) and Melbourne (seven regions plus CBD/Inner). Listings in suburbs outside the mapping fall into an "Other" bucket, which is reported as a region rather than discarded — it represents outer-metro and regional stock and accounts for 51% of Sydney's and 55% of Melbourne's extracted volume.
Domain's Saturday data is preliminary and revisions typically lower clearance rates by 2–5 points once late results are collected. Suburb-level listing counts include sold-prior and sold-after-auction results that Domain's top-line "reported" figure may treat differently, so listing-level sold percentages and official clearance rates should not be expected to reconcile exactly.
Adelaide and Canberra operate small auction markets (136 and 67 scheduled respectively), so week-to-week percentage moves are volatile and single large agencies or single postponed books can swing a city's rate by 5–10 points.
Melbourne's median auction price is highly sensitive to compositional mix. A $50,000–$80,000 weekly swing is normal and does not indicate a corresponding movement in values.
Clearance rates from Domain, Cotality and MyHousingMarket use different methodologies and will not match. Domain figures are used throughout this report for consistency with the listing-level extraction.
Days on market, inventory and turnover figures derive from Cotality's September release and carry a three-week lag to the auction data in this report. Rental vacancy carries a four-week lag; the weekly rents index carries a one-week lag.
This report is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.