Australian Capital City Auction Market Analysis — Week Ending Saturday 3 October 2026
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.60% on Tuesday — a unanimous decision, the highest official rate since November 2011 — and the auction market's first read on it is ugly where volumes were thin and deceptive where they were not.
Four hikes in 2026 have now fully unwound the 2025 easing cycle and then some. The decision, delivered 29 September with all nine Board members in favour and effective 30 September, was accompanied by August CPI printing at 4.0% year-on-year (up from 3.5% in July) with trimmed mean at 3.6%. The RBA has told the market in plain language that it is not finished. Against that backdrop, the week's auction data carries a structural distortion the headline numbers cannot show: Saturday 3 October opened the Labour Day long weekend in New South Wales, the ACT and South Australia, stripping scheduled volumes in three of our five cities. Sydney ran 521 scheduled auctions against 1,029 last week and Canberra just 40. Comparing this week's clearance rates to last week's without noting that is malpractice.
| City | Official CR | Scheduled | Reported | Sold | Withdrawn | Passed In | Total Sales | Median | TRUE CR | WD % | YoY CR | Deception Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 53% | 521 | 307 | 162 | 87 | 58 | $125,850,555 | $1,310,000 | 31.1% | 16.7% | 72% | 21.9pp |
| Melbourne | 56% | 714 | 507 | 283 | 79 | 145 | $169,725,776 | $905,000 | 39.6% | 11.1% | 66% | 16.4pp |
| Brisbane | 21% | 145 | 103 | 22 | 12 | 69 | $15,811,000 | $1,210,000 | 15.2% | 8.3% | 47% | 5.8pp |
| Adelaide | 39% | 95 | 75 | 29 | 7 | 39 | $23,760,859 | $845,000 | 30.5% | 7.4% | 74% | 8.5pp |
| Canberra | 39% | 40 | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | $6,804,000 | n/a | 32.5% | 22.5% | 64% | 6.5pp |
| Pooled 5-city | 49.7% | 1,515 | 1,025 | 509 | 194 | 322 | $341.9m | — | 33.6% | 12.8% | — | — |
The market pulse in one line: Sydney and Melbourne are holding a floor at a genuinely better level than the panic weeks of May and June, but Brisbane has fallen through it — and every one of the five capitals is clearing 20 to 32 percentage points below the same weekend a year ago.
The buyer's agent bottom line: The market is bifurcating fast. Well-located, well-priced stock in Sydney's Inner West and St George, and across inner Melbourne, is still clearing in the 55–70% range. Investor-grade high-rise on the Gold Coast, new-estate product in Melbourne's west, and anything in Canberra is being repriced in real time. If you are a buyer with finance pre-approved, the next eight weeks — before the 3 November RBA meeting and the spring selling season peaks — is the best window you have had since 2022.
1,515 auctions were scheduled across the five capitals, of which 509 sold (33.6% of everything scheduled) and 194 were withdrawn. The pooled official clearance of 49.7% is the fifth consecutive week below 55% and compares with a pooled TRUE clearance that has not broken 40% since August. The gap between the two — the Deception Gap — averaged 11.8 percentage points across the capitals this week, and 21.9 points in Sydney alone.
Sydney's official clearance printed at 53%, up two points on last week's 51%. Everything else got worse:
The veteran's read: Sydney is a market with a hardening floor and a soft ceiling. The Inner West and St George are transacting normally; the Lower North Shore and the Eastern Suburbs are where vendors are still anchored to April pricing and getting punished for it. The fall in the median to $1.31m from $1.5415m last week is not a 15% price crash — it is composition. Last week's median was dragged up by a cluster of $3–5m Upper North Shore sales; this week the volume skewed cheaper and the long weekend removed a layer of prestige stock. Treat the median move as noise; treat the withdrawal and postponement counts as signal.
Anyone who read last week's 32.0% Melbourne TRUE clearance as a market event was wrong, and this week proves it. Volume returned to 714 scheduled (from 291), and TRUE clearance recovered to 39.6% — a 7.6-point snap-back. The median lifted to $905,000 from $843,000.
Melbourne's structure is now the healthiest of the big two: the withdrawal rate is only 11.1%, the P:W ratio is a balanced 0.92:1 (Transition phase), and the inner ring is genuinely competitive (Inner South 67% sold, Inner North 58%, CBD/Inner 56%). The problem is entirely geographic and entirely in the growth corridors — West Growth sold only 24% of its stock, with Tarneit the national stress epicentre for outer-suburban product.
Brisbane's 21% headline clearance is the worst single reading of any capital this year. The mechanics:
Brisbane is the sharpest-declining capital on the Cotality index and its sales volume is down 27.2% year-on-year — the worst in the country. The investor buyer that drove the 2024–25 boom has disappeared, and owner-occupiers cannot bridge the gap at 6.2%+ mortgage rates.
Adelaide's 39% headline / 30.5% TRUE is superficially stable, but the year-on-year comparison is brutal: 74% clearances this time last year. Only 95 auctions ran and 39 passed in (52% of reported). Adelaide's saving grace is its chronic undersupply — vacancy remains the tightest in the country — but the auction market is telling you that even Adelaide's vendors are now pricing ahead of the market.
Canberra ran just 40 scheduled auctions with 9 withdrawals (22.5%) and one single postponement. A P:W ratio of 0.17:1 is the most extreme capitulation signal in the dataset. Canberra vendors are not waiting for spring — they are taking properties off the market entirely. With Cotality showing Canberra values down 1.1% in September and 6.2% below their cyclical peak, and the highest vacancy rate in the country, the ACT is the weakest market in the country on a fundamentals basis.
| City | Postponed | Withdrawn | P:W Ratio | Phase Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 164 | 93 | 1.76:1 | Postponement Wave |
| Adelaide | 9 | 7 | 1.29:1 | Transition (postponement-leaning) |
| Melbourne | 70 | 76 | 0.92:1 | Transition |
| Brisbane | 13 | 32 | 0.41:1 | Withdrawal Crisis |
| Canberra | 1 | 6 | 0.17:1 | Withdrawal Crisis |
The national picture is a market split cleanly in two: Sydney and Adelaide vendors are gambling on spring; Brisbane and Canberra vendors have folded. Melbourne sits in the middle, resolving toward health.
Extracted from 285 suburb articles covering 522 listings. Positive news first: the Inner West and St George/Sutherland are trading at genuine clearance levels. The distress is concentrated in the prestige and deferred-decision belts.
| Region | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Passed | Sold % | WD % | PP % | P:W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inner West | 34 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 59% | 18% | 15% | 0.83:1 |
| St George/Sutherland | 32 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 53% | 13% | 25% | 2.00:1 |
| Lower North Shore | 56 | 26 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 46% | 11% | 43% | 4.00:1 |
| City Fringe | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 38% | 34% | 28% | 0.80:1 |
| Eastern Suburbs | 50 | 18 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 36% | 20% | 40% | 2.00:1 |
| Northern Beaches | 30 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 33% | 23% | 37% | 1.57:1 |
| Hills District | 13 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 31% | 0% | 23% | n/a |
| Other (outer/regional NSW) | 278 | 93 | 50 | 85 | 50 | 33% | 18% | 31% | 1.70:1 |
50 listings, 18 sold (36%), 10 withdrawn, 20 postponed, 2 passed. The region carries a 2.00:1 postponement ratio — the prestige belt has parked a fifth of its stock. Bondi Junction was the worst book in the region: 6 listings, zero sold, 3 withdrawn, 3 postponed. Bellevue Hill (3 listings, 0 sold, 2 withdrawn) and Darlinghurst (5 listings, 2 sold, 2 withdrawn) add to the picture. Buyer's Agent Take: The Eastern Suburbs are where Sydney vendors are most divorced from reality. A 36% sale rate on this stock does not mean the area has fallen 60% — it means the asking prices were set in February. If you are looking at a $3–5m Bondi or Bronte home right now, the seller's reserve almost certainly starts above last year's comparable. Bid to the last honest comparable and walk. The $13.925m Dover Heights trophy sale shows the top end still clears — but only the genuinely exceptional.
34 listings, 20 sold (59% — the best in Sydney), 6 withdrawn, 5 postponed. Leichhardt ($2.36m) and Dulwich Hill ($2.25m) both cleared strong house results. Buyer's Agent Take: This is Sydney's functional market. Family buyers with finance are competing again and vendors are meeting the market. If you want to buy in Sydney this spring with confidence that you are not overpaying into a falling knife, the Inner West is where the depth of bidding is real. Expect competition, not bargains.
56 listings, 26 sold (46%), 6 withdrawn, 24 postponed (43%), 0 passed. A 4.00:1 postponement ratio is the most extreme deferral signal in Sydney. St Ives carried 8 listings with 2 sold and 6 postponed; Pymble 5 listings with 6 postponed-equivalent stress. Buyer's Agent Take: The Lower North Shore has become the epicentre of "let's try again in a fortnight." Two-thirds of the region's postponed stock will re-appear before Christmas. If a vendor postponed in October and you liked the property, register your interest directly — you are very likely to be negotiating with a more flexible seller by December.
30 listings, 10 sold (33%), 7 withdrawn (23%), 11 postponed. Manly was the worst book in Sydney's metro: 9 listings, 2 sold, 3 withdrawn, 4 postponed. Stone Real Estate Manly listed 4 and sold none. Buyer's Agent Take: The holiday-home belt is now a buyer's market with no floor under the middle. Bilgola Plateau ($2.695m) and Mona Vale ($2.53m) are clearing at the top, but mid-market Newport–Avalon stock is stalling. Negotiate hard; the vendor's alternative is a spring campaign into a falling market.
13 listings, 4 sold (31%), 0 withdrawn, 3 postponed, 6 passed. Buyer's Agent Take: The new-estate investor retreat continues. Zero withdrawals but a 46% pass-in rate says the market is clearing, just lower. Uniland Epping/Castle Hill listed 4 and withdrew 3 — the standout red flag of the region. If you are buying a Kellyville or Castle Hill family home, you are bidding against a thin field and should be extracting 5–8% off mid-2026 pricing.
29 listings, 11 sold (38%), 10 withdrawn (34%) — the highest withdrawal rate in Sydney — 8 postponed. Buyer's Agent Take: The inner-city unit and terrace market is bifurcating hard: renovated free-standing homes trade, while high-strung terrace and apartment stock is being pulled. This is the region where a well-negotiated unit purchase offers genuine value this spring.
32 listings, 17 sold (53%), 4 withdrawn (13%), 8 postponed. Miranda cleared $2.312m and Ramsgate $2.5m. Buyer's Agent Take: The steadiest family market in the city. Owner-occupier demand is genuine and vendors are realistic. This is the safest buy in Sydney for families who plan to hold.
| Suburb | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Passed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manly | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| St Ives | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Bondi Junction | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Bondi | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Salamander Bay | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Corlette | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Pymble | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Darlinghurst | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bayview | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Bondi Beach | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Caringbah South | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cronulla | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bellevue Hill | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Epping | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Suburb | Price |
|---|---|
| Dover Heights | $13,925,000 |
| Glebe | $5,688,000 |
| Marrickville | $3,310,000 |
| Pymble | $2,900,000 |
| Bilgola Plateau | $2,695,000 |
| Mona Vale | $2,530,000 |
| Ramsgate | $2,500,000 |
| Belrose | $2,485,000 |
| Coorabell | $2,400,000 |
| Westleigh | $2,380,000 |
| Leichhardt | $2,360,000 |
| Miranda | $2,312,000 |
| Region | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Passed | Sold % | WD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South East Growth | 13 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 69% | 0% |
| Inner South | 33 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 67% | 9% |
| Inner North | 52 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 58% | 13% |
| CBD/Inner | 16 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 56% | 19% |
| Inner East | 43 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 35% | 9% |
| North Growth | 71 | 31 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 44% | 20% |
| West Growth | 34 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 24% | 18% |
Top performers: Inner South and Inner North carry the city. Balwyn North ($2.27m), Essendon ($2.21m) and Carnegie ($2.189m) led the sales. Stress corridor: West Growth (Tarneit, Truganina, Werribee, Melton) sold just 24% of stock. Tarneit alone: 8 listings, 2 sold, 2 withdrawn, 3 postponed. Mickleham was the worst suburb book in the state (11 listings, 1 sold, 6 withdrawn). Ray White Mickleham listed 5 and postponed all five. Buyer's Agent Take (Melbourne): Buy inner, avoid the fringe. The inner rings are clearing at 56–67% with low withdrawal — that is a functioning market. The growth corridors are in outright correction and will keep falling until the RBA pivots, which is a 2027 story. If you are an investor looking for yield-plus-growth, inner Melbourne townhouses at 4.5–5% gross yield are the best risk-adjusted entry in the country right now.
Brisbane's headline collapse (21%) is a coastal phenomenon. Coastal stress suburbs:
| Suburb | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Passed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadbeach Waters | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Main Beach | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Sorrento | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Surfers Paradise | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Maroochydore | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bongaree | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Mooloolaba | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kingston | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Metro sub-markets that sold: Windsor cleared $3.7m, Newport $1.75m, Kenmore $1.46m, Mount Gravatt East $1.455m, Upper Coomera $1.3m, Deception Bay $1.215m, Wooloowin $1.21m, Curumbin $1.185m. Buyer's Agent Take (Brisbane): The Gold Coast high-rise and canal market has stopped clearing entirely — five passed in at Surfers and four of the worst books are Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast addresses. If you own Gold Coast investment stock, your exit window is closing. If you are buying, wait: the coastal correction is three to six months behind the metro and has further to fall.
| Suburb | Price |
|---|---|
| Plympton | $2,600,000 |
| Dulwich | $2,330,000 |
| Mile End | $1,645,000 |
| Lightsview | $1,569,800 |
| Dernancourt | $1,160,000 |
| Hope Valley | $1,099,000 |
| Pennington | $1,040,000 |
| Woodville West | $1,035,000 |
| Cheltenham | $990,000 |
| Magill | $970,000 |
| Rostrevor | $920,000 |
Adelaide stress is concentrated in the northern corridor (Elizabeth Park, Enfield, Para Hills, Munno Para) and the coastal fringe (Exeter, Glengowrie, Mount Barker, Paralowie, Rosewater — all withdrawn).
| Suburb | Price |
|---|---|
| Macquarie | $1,205,000 |
| Gungahlin | $1,030,000 |
| Ainslie | $1,012,000 |
| Gilmore | $1,000,000 |
| Ngunnawal | $865,000 |
| Curtin | $850,000 |
| Melba | $842,000 |
Withdrawn with no sale: Campbell, Downer, Watson, Weston. Only one postponement in the entire city.
Derived from listing-level extraction. Push-through = sold ÷ total book; withdrawal % measures how many listings the agency pulled.
| Agency | Book | Sold | Push-through | WD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belle Property North Shore | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0% |
| Ray White TKG | 9 | 6 | 67% | 0% |
| Ray White Lower North Shore Group | 6 | 4 | 67% | 0% |
| NGFarah | 8 | 5 | 63% | 13% |
| Ray White Wetherill Park | 12 | 7 | 58% | 0% |
| Raine & Horne Double Bay | 5 | 3 | 60% | 40% |
| Agency | Book | Sold | Push-through | WD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raine & Horne Forest | 3 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| Uniland Real Estate (Epping/Castle Hill) | 4 | 0 | 0% | 75% |
| Raine & Horne Double Bay | 5 | 3 | 60% | 40% |
| BresicWhitney East | 5 | 2 | 40% | 40% |
| First National Port Stephens | 19 | 1 | 5% | 37% |
| Highland Sutherland Shire & St George | 11 | 5 | 45% | 36% |
| Agency | Book | Sold | Postponed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First National Port Stephens | 19 | 1 | 11 | Largest parked book in the state |
| Belle Property Northern Beaches | 14 | 5 | 9 | — |
| Ray White Upper North Shore | 11 | 3 | 7 | — |
| Ray White Eastern Beaches | 7 | 1 | 5 | — |
| Stone Real Estate Manly | 4 | 0 | 4 | — |
| Agency | Book | Sold | Push-through | WD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayde | 13 | 13 | 100% | 0% |
| Glenvill Homes | 10 | 10 | 100% | 0% |
| Burbank Australia | 7 | 7 | 100% | 0% |
| Gary Peer | 10 | 9 | 90% | 0% |
| Ray White Glenroy | 7 | 6 | 86% | 0% |
| Jas Stephens Real Estate | 10 | 7 | 70% | 0% |
| Agency | Book | Sold | Push-through | WD % / Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jellis Craig Northcote | 5 | 3 | 60% | 40% WD |
| Jellis Craig Mount Waverley | 6 | 3 | 50% | 33% WD |
| Jellis Craig Kensington | 7 | 3 | 43% | 29% WD |
| Ray White Mickleham | 5 | 0 | 0% | 5 postponed |
| Ray White Wantirna | 6 | 1 | 17% | 4 postponed |
| Barry Plant Manningham | 13 | 3 | 23% | 6 passed |
Buyer's agent interpretation: The pattern is consistent with a market where a handful of operators are pricing accurately and clearing, while others are winning listings on inflated expectations and then losing them at the withdrawal and postponement stage. Three separate Jellis Craig offices appear in the Melbourne red-flag list — a group-level pricing-discipline issue worth noting if you are interviewing agents. The standouts — Mayde, Glenvill, Gary Peer, Belle Property North Shore, Ray White TKG — are the agencies whose appraisals you should trust in this market.
| Market | All Houses | 12-mth change | Combined | 12-mth change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | $784.00 | +7.5% | $703.98 | +7.3% |
| Sydney | $1,148.10 | +5.6% | $913.76 | +5.2% |
| Melbourne | $827.20 | +7.7% | $694.21 | +5.8% |
National house rents rose $3.00 on the week. Unit rents are now flat-to-soft (national units $611.00, −1.3% over the month), and Sydney house rents slipped 0.4% over the month — the first meaningful sign that rental affordability is finally biting.
| Source | National | Sydney | Melbourne | Brisbane | Adelaide | Canberra |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SQM (Sep 2026) | 1.2% | ~1.7% | ~1.8% | ~0.9% | ~0.6% | ~2.1% |
| Cotality (Sep 2026) | 2.0% | 2.3% | — | 2.1% | 1.4% | — |
The two methodologies diverge (SQM counts listings available against a different denominator than Cotality), but the direction is unanimous: vacancy is rising off record lows. Cotality's national vacancy rate hit 2.0% in September, up from a record-low 1.5% in February — the highest since January 2025, though still below the pre-COVID decade average of 3.3%. Canberra (2.1%, +29% year-on-year) and Sydney (2.3%) are loosening fastest; Adelaide (1.4%) remains structurally the tightest market in the country.
| City | Gross Yield | Investor Rate (indicative) | Cash-Flow Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 4.60% | ~6.2% | Negative |
| Perth | 4.15% | ~6.2% | Negative |
| Canberra | 4.14% | ~6.2% | Negative |
| Sydney | 3.87% | ~6.2% | Negative |
| Brisbane | 3.64% | ~6.2% | Negative |
| Adelaide | 3.57% | ~6.2% | Negative |
Every Australian capital is cash-flow negative before tax, and the 29 September hike pushed investor borrowing costs higher again. Indicative weekly shortfalls at 80% LVR: Sydney −$268, Brisbane −$283, Adelaide −$257, Canberra −$143, Melbourne −$62. Rental growth of 7.3% nationally is now running roughly in line with debt costs — the era of negative gearing carrying the loss is over for new purchases, and the May 2026 Budget's removal of negative gearing on established dwellings has structurally changed the investor calculus.
Volumes will rebound sharply as the Labour Day long weekend passes — expect Sydney back above 800 scheduled and Melbourne toward 850. The key question is whether Sydney's TRUE clearance holds above 30% and Melbourne's above 39%. Watch Brisbane: a third consecutive week below 25% headline would confirm a genuine regime change rather than a long-weekend blip.
| City | Base | Downside | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | −4% | −8% | +2% |
| Melbourne | −3% | −7% | +3% |
| Brisbane | −6% | −11% | +1% |
| Adelaide | −2% | −5% | +4% |
| Canberra | −7% | −12% | 0% |
| Perth | −2% | −6% | +5% |
The Sydney and Melbourne corrections (8.6% and 7.5% below peak respectively) are already deeper than the equivalent stage of the 2022–23 downturn. Much of the cyclically-driven downside is now priced. Brisbane and Canberra are earlier in their cycles and carry the most downside risk.
First Home Buyers - Your window is open and widening. The ACT has abolished stamp duty for all first home buyers; NSW full exemption applies to $800k with a taper to $1m; QLD offers full exemption on new homes with no cap; WA's cap is now $600k. - Target: Sydney's St George/Sutherland (Padstow, Penshurst, Oatley) and Inner West units; Melbourne's Inner North (Brunswick, Coburg) and North Growth (Wollert, Craigieburn at 7% withdrawal — the corridor's only functioning pocket). - Strategy: Get pre-approval locked before the 3 November RBA meeting. Bid at auction to the last sold comparable minus 3%, not to the agent's guide. Avoid Melbourne's West Growth corridor entirely — it is in active correction.
Investors - Every capital is cash-flow negative before tax. This is a capital-appreciation bet, not a yield bet. - Best risk-adjusted entry: inner Melbourne townhouses (4.5–5% gross, 67% clearance in the Inner South, low withdrawal). - Avoid: Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast high-rise (five pass-ins at Surfers Paradise, four of the worst books in the country); Brisbane new estates; anything in Canberra (highest vacancy, worst capitulation signal). - Strategy: Negotiate 5–8% below mid-2026 pricing in the Hills District and Northern Beaches, where investor retreat has left thin fields.
Upsizers / Family Buyers - The Sydney Inner West (59% clearance) and St George (53%) are the genuine competition zones — expect to bid above reserve for well-presented family homes. - Melbourne's Inner East (35% clearance, 19 passed in) is the opposite: a soft market where you can negotiate. Don't overpay for a Camberwell or Balwyn home — there is ample choice. - Strategy: Sell first into this spring's thin market, then buy in December when postponed stock re-appears and vendors are under pressure.
Downsizers / Retirees - The prestige belts (Eastern Suburbs 36%, Lower North Shore 46% with a 4.00:1 postponement ratio) are where vendors are most anchored. If you are downsizing out of a large family home, price to January 2026 comparables, not April. - Canberra is the weakest market in the country — if you are considering a tree-change from the ACT, rent first and buy in 2027. - Strategy: Target quality apartments in Sydney's Lower North Shore and Melbourne's CBD/Inner during the December slowdown, when deferring vendors return with reduced expectations.
| Source | Data Used | Vintage |
|---|---|---|
| Domain.com.au | Auction results, listing-level status/price/agency | Week ending 3 Oct 2026 (preliminary) |
| Cotality (CoreLogic) HVI | National & capital-city home value movements, medians | September 2026 (released 1 Oct) |
| SQM Research | Weekly asking rents; vacancy rates | Week ending 28 Sep / September 2026 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | Cash rate decision | 29 September 2026 |
| Australian Bureau of Statistics | Monthly CPI | August 2026 (released 30 Sep) |
| ASX RBA Rate Tracker | Market-implied rate probabilities | 3 October 2026 |
Listing-level data was extracted directly from Domain's auction-results pages via browser-console scripting. Domain removed the css-1q8knlq class from listing elements in September 2026; a text-based fallback parser was used, applying prefix matching on status strings (Sold prior/Sold after count as sold; Rescheduled counts as postponed). Sydney and Melbourne were extracted in the primary session (285 and 228 suburb articles respectively); Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra were extracted in parallel sessions (135, 63 and 26 articles). Sale price rankings use a suffix-preserving parser to prevent unit-magnitude errors.
This report is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Property markets carry risk and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should obtain independent professional advice before making any investment decision.