Australian Capital City Auction Market Analysis — Week Ending Saturday 26 September 2026
Three days before the Reserve Bank meets — and the market has quietly started to heal at the bottom while cracking at the top.
Sydney posted the only genuine improvement of the week: a 51% clearance rate (up 3 points) with a TRUE clearance of 32.6% (up from 29.5%). That is the second consecutive weekly rise in Sydney's real clearance rate, and the first time in six weeks that the largest auction market in the country has moved in the right direction on both measures. Melbourne, by contrast, appears to have collapsed to a 52% headline / 32.0% TRUE — but that number is a statistical mirage created by the Australian Football League Grand Final. Melbourne ran just 291 scheduled auctions this weekend against 913 last week: an AFL Grand Final weekend strips roughly two-thirds of stock out of the market, and the stock that remains is skewed toward lower-priced and less-committed vendors. Do not read a 9-point TRUE clearance fall in Melbourne as a market event. It is a calendar event.
The real story is Sydney's 232 withdrawn auctions at a 22.5% withdrawal rate — the highest absolute withdrawal count of any capital, and the fifth consecutive week above 22%. Sydney vendors are no longer parking stock on the shelf; they are taking it off the shelf entirely, and they are doing it into an RBA meeting that the futures market has priced at roughly a 90% probability of a 25 basis point hike to 4.60% on Tuesday 29 September.
Brisbane delivered the week's surprise: a 36% headline clearance (up 7 points) and a TRUE rate of 26.3%. But scratch the surface and the pass-in rate is brutal — 52 of 97 reported auctions passed in (53.6%). Brisbane is not recovering; it is simply selling fewer properties at auction and passing in the rest. Adelaide went sharply backwards: 37% headline, down 14 points, with TRUE clearance falling to 24.3% — the worst reading in the five capitals bar Brisbane.
Canberra continues its peculiar, deeply unhealthy pattern: a 47% headline that flatters a 20.0% withdrawal rate — the equal-highest of the five capitals alongside Sydney — with almost no postponements. Canberra vendors are not waiting for spring. They are simply leaving.
| City | Official CR | TRUE CR | Scheduled | Reported | Sold | Withdrawn | Passed In | Median | Deception Gap | WD % | Unreported % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 51% | 32.6% | 1,029 | 658 | 335 | 232 | 91 | $1,541,500 | 18.4pp | 22.5% | 36.1% |
| Melbourne | 52% | 32.0% | 291 | 179 | 93 | 29 | 57 | $843,000 | 20.0pp | 10.0% | 38.5% |
| Brisbane | 36% | 26.3% | 133 | 97 | 35 | 10 | 52 | $1,040,000 | 9.7pp | 7.5% | 27.1% |
| Adelaide | 37% | 24.3% | 103 | 68 | 25 | 8 | 35 | $994,000 | 12.7pp | 7.8% | 34.0% |
| Canberra | 47% | 38.9% | 90 | 74 | 35 | 18 | 21 | $1,160,000 | 8.1pp | 20.0% | 17.8% |
| Pooled 5-city | 48.6% | 31.8% | 1,646 | 1,076 | 523 | 297 | 256 | — | 16.8pp | 18.0% | 34.6% |
Same week last year: Sydney 70% · Melbourne 71%.
Market pulse. Pooled five-city TRUE clearance is 31.8% — one house in three that went to auction this week actually sold. The pooled Deception Gap of 16.8 percentage points means the headline "clearance rate" you will read in the newspapers overstates the true sale probability by roughly half. And 34.6% of scheduled auctions went unreported — the dark inventory problem is not improving.
The RBA context that overrides everything. The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board meets Monday–Tuesday and announces at 2:30pm AEST on 29 September. The market is pricing approximately a 90% probability of a 25bp hike to 4.60%. CBA, NAB and ANZ all forecast a hike; ANZ is the most hawkish of the big four, forecasting a second hike in November that would take the cash rate to 4.85% by year-end. August monthly CPI lands on 30 September — the day after the decision. If the hike lands, this is the fourth increase of 2026 and the cash rate will sit 150bp above where it sat at the start of the year.
What the data is really saying. Three things, in order of importance:
Sydney scheduled 1,029 auctions — the highest volume of the year and up 29% on last week's 797 features. The market absorbed that volume at a 51% headline rate with 335 sales totalling $306.7 million. Median sale price was $1,541,500, down 3.1% on last week's $1,590,000 — but with a 29% volume increase, that softening is a composition effect (more mid-market stock at auction), not an across-the-board price fall.
The critical numbers are underneath the headline:
From a 35-year vantage point: what is happening in Sydney right now is the classic spring volume trap. Vendors who postponed through winter and held out for a spring sale have hit the market en masse — and the market has absorbed the extra volume without collapsing. That is genuinely bullish for the medium term. But the withdrawal number tells you the marginal vendor is still price-anchored to a market that stopped existing in February. The gap between what sellers want and what buyers will pay is being closed by withdrawals, not by negotiation.
Melbourne's page shows 291 scheduled, 179 reported, 93 sold, 29 withdrawn, 57 passed in, a median of $843,000 and a headline clearance of 52%.
Warn your clients about this number. The AFL Grand Final (Fremantle v Brisbane Lions, MCG, Saturday afternoon) is the single quietest auction weekend on the Victorian calendar. The REIV reported approximately 310 auctions scheduled across 153 suburbs this weekend, against 623 last weekend and 913 the weekend before. Any week where scheduled volume falls more than 50% produces a clearance rate driven almost entirely by which vendors chose to ignore the fixture — and those are disproportionately vendors under financial pressure or estate/relocation sellers who cannot wait.
The pre-Grand Final market tells the real story: 913 auctions at 59.3% clearance (MyHousingMarket) — Melbourne's strongest week since winter. That is a genuinely improving market.
The median figure requires the standard compositional caveat: $843,000 is 11.6% below last week's $954,000 but that reflects the absence of prestige Boroondara/Bayside stock from a Grand Final weekend, not a collapse in values. Melbourne's auction median routinely swings $50–80k week-to-week on thin volume.
Brisbane's 36% headline clearance looks like a recovery from 29%. It is not. Of 97 reported auctions, 52 passed in — a 53.6% pass-in rate, the highest of any capital. Brisbane is a market where listings that reach the auction floor overwhelmingly do not sell; the 35 sales that did occur are the exception.
The good news is confined to the beach. Maroochydore cleared two of the week's top three sales ($3.775m and $2.8375m), Mermaid Waters sold at $2.935m and $2.175m, and the broader Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast corridor (Broadbeach, Main Beach, Pelican Waters) continues to transact at price points the Brisbane metropolitan market cannot reach. The metro market — Sunnybank, Calamvale, Fortitude Valley, Southport, Labrador — is passing in at rates above 60%.
P:W ratio from listing-level data: 0.37:1 — deep in withdrawal-crisis territory. Brisbane vendors are pulling stock, not parking it.
Adelaide's 37% headline (down 14 points) and 24.3% TRUE (down 7.4 points) represent the largest single-week deterioration of any capital. Just 25 properties sold of 103 scheduled. The median fell from $1,105,500 to $994,000 — a composition effect, but a meaningful one: nothing above $2.05m transacted except a single Campbelltown sale.
Adelaide has been the most resilient market in the country for four years (annual growth still +8.6% on Cotality's August index). A single week does not make a trend. But the pass-in rate of 51.5% (35 of 68) is the worst Adelaide reading of 2026, and the P:W ratio of 1.25:1 shows vendors pivoting from selling to waiting.
Canberra's 47% headline masks a 20.0% withdrawal rate — 18 of 90 scheduled auctions pulled. And critically, the P:W ratio is 0.22:1: only 4 postponements against 18 withdrawals.
This is the pattern we flagged in September and it has now repeated for a fourth week. Canberra vendors are not "waiting for a better market" (that would show as postponements). They are exiting the market. With SQM vacancy at 2.1% — the highest of any capital and up 29% year-on-year — and Cotality reporting Canberra as one of only two capitals with negative annual growth, Canberra is the closest thing in Australia to a market in genuine structural transition.
The Australian auction market has moved through three distinct vendor-psychology phases in 2026:
| Phase | Period | Signature | Current status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Withdrawal Crisis | May–Jun 2026 | P:W < 0.7:1 — vendors rip stock off market | Persists in Brisbane (0.37:1) and Canberra (0.22:1) |
| Postponement Wave | Jul–Aug 2026 | P:W > 1.5:1 — "spring will save me" | Faded; Sydney now 0.97:1, Melbourne 1.64:1 (thin) |
| Postponement-to-Withdrawal Flip | Sep 2026 | P:W falling back toward 1.0 — postponed stock loses patience | Sydney 0.97:1 — the flip is underway |
Sydney's drop from 1.23:1 (19 Sep) to 0.97:1 (this week) is the most important structural signal in this report. The stock that vendors parked in July and August, betting on a spring recovery, is now being withdrawn as the spring recovery fails to materialise. If the RBA hikes on 29 September, that trickle becomes a flood in October.
Region-by-region breakdown from listing-level extraction of 835 listings across 338 suburb articles (Domain text-fallback extraction; ul.css-1q8knlq remains absent).
| Region | Listings | Sold | WD | Postponed | Passed | Sold % | WD % | PP % | P:W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Suburbs | 125 | 62 | 28 | 23 | 12 | 50% | 22% | 18% | 0.82:1 |
| Inner West | 54 | 31 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 57% | 24% | 13% | 0.54:1 |
| Lower North Shore | 127 | 48 | 34 | 36 | 9 | 38% | 27% | 28% | 1.06:1 |
| Northern Beaches | 45 | 22 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 49% | 18% | 33% | 1.88:1 |
| Hills District | 13 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 23% | 15% | 38% | 2.50:1 |
| City Fringe | 57 | 21 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 37% | 33% | 23% | 0.68:1 |
| St George/Sutherland | 33 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 58% | 21% | 15% | 0.71:1 |
| Other (outer/regional NSW) | 381 | 139 | 94 | 95 | 53 | 36% | 25% | 25% | 1.01:1 |
Sydney region totals: 199 postponed / 205 withdrawn = 0.97:1 (transition, post-postponement phase).
125 listings, 62 sold (50%). The strongest-performing large region in Sydney. Double Bay ($4.60m), Clovelly ($4.18m), Bondi ($3.30m), Coogee ($3.315m) and Greenwich ($3.30m) all transacted at strong levels. Withdrawals at 22% are elevated but the sold rate is the best of any high-volume region.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Eastern Suburbs is the one Sydney region where competitive tension still exists — but only above $3m. Below $2m the market is a buyer's market with vendors who have not adjusted. If you are buying, target the $2–4m band where the sold rate is highest and negotiate hard; avoid anything that has been postponed twice.
54 listings, 31 sold (57%), only 7 postponements and a P:W of 0.54:1. Balmain, Annandale, Leichhardt and Marrickville are clearing at genuine rates. Top sales of $2.40m and $2.275m show depth.
Buyer's Agent Take: This is the most functional market in NSW right now. Vendors here are pricing to market and buyers are responding. Expect competition on well-presented freestanding homes under $2.5m. If you want to buy in 2026 without overpaying, this is where the market is honest.
127 listings, only 48 sold (38%), with 36 postponements — the largest parked-stock concentration in the country. Turramurra alone carried 19 listings (5 sold, 9 withdrawn, 4 postponed), Wahroonga 12 (5 sold, 2 wd, 5 postponed), Pymble 7 (1 sold, 0 wd, 6 postponed), Lane Cove 9 (4 sold, 0 wd, 5 postponed).
Buyer's Agent Take: The Upper North Shore is where the pain is concentrated. Nine of Turramurra's 19 sellers have effectively exited and four more are parked. This is the region to watch — if the RBA hikes, these postponed listings become forced vendors by November. Buyers should sit tight on the Upper North Shore and wait for the October–November capitulation.
22 of 45 sold (49%) with zero pass-ins and 15 postponements. Newport's $4.80m and $3.25m sales anchor the market.
Buyer's Agent Take: Northern Beaches supply is genuinely thin, which is holding the market up. The 33% postponement rate is a warning that vendors here are still anchored to peak pricing. Wait for the postponed stock to come back to market in October — it will come back softer.
Only 13 listings and a 23% sold rate — the worst of any Sydney region. Five postponements and three pass-ins out of thirteen.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Hills is investor-exposed new-estate territory, and it is where the negative-gearing changes hit hardest. Nothing is clearing. Avoid.
57 listings, 21 sold (37%), 33% withdrawal rate — the worst in Sydney. Darlinghurst carried 8 listings with 4 postponements and only 1 sale.
Buyer's Agent Take: The inner-city unit and terrace market is the weakest sector in Sydney. High withdrawal rates plus heavy postponement suggest vendors are being told at the last minute that the reserve is unachievable. For buyers, this is where the discounts are — but only for well-located, well-built stock.
19 of 33 sold (58%), the best sold rate in Sydney, with only 2 pass-ins and a 0.71:1 P:W. Cronulla, Miranda, Gymea and Kirrawee are the engines; a $2.55m and two $1.8x million sales show a functioning family market.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Shire is the most underrated market in Sydney right now — genuine family demand, realistic vendors, and clearance rates that would have been celebrated in 2019. If you have children and a $1.5–2.5m budget, Sutherland Shire offers the best value-to-lifestyle ratio in the metropolitan area.
381 listings — 46% of Sydney's extracted volume — clearing at 36% with 94 withdrawals and 95 postponements. This bucket now carries enough weight that it should be read as its own market: the Central Coast and Illawarra are softer than the Sydney core.
Sydney Top Sales: Cabarita $5.26m · Newport $4.80m · Double Bay $4.60m · Strathfield $4.48m · Clovelly $4.18m · Burwood $4.10m · Hunters Hill $3.653m · Greystanes $3.53m · Denistone East $3.42m · Roseville Chase $3.41m · Surry Hills $3.35m · Coogee $3.315m · Bondi $3.30m · Greenwich $3.30m
Sydney Stress Suburbs (withdrawn + postponed, worst first): Turramurra (9 WD / 4 PP of 19) · Mosman (5/4 of 14) · Eastwood (5/3 of 9) · Maroubra (5/2 of 15) · Randwick (5/2 of 18) · Wahroonga (2/5 of 12) · Pymble (0/6 of 7) · Bondi Junction (3/2 of 9) · Darlinghurst (1/4 of 8) · Lane Cove (0/5 of 9)
| Region | Listings | Sold | WD | Postponed | Passed | Sold % | WD % | PP % | P:W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inner South | 10 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 60% | 0% | 30% | — |
| CBD/Inner | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 57% | 29% | 14% | 0.50:1 |
| South East Growth | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 56% | 11% | 0% | 0.00:1 |
| Inner North | 11 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 45% | 0% | 27% | — |
| North Growth | 43 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 44% | 7% | 14% | 2.00:1 |
| Other (metro/regional VIC) | 123 | 56 | 18 | 22 | 27 | 46% | 15% | 18% | 1.22:1 |
| Inner East | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 40% | 0% | 40% | — |
| West Growth | 16 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 19% | 25% | 44% | 1.75:1 |
Melbourne region totals: 46 postponed / 28 withdrawn = 1.64:1 (thin-volume artefact — treat with caution).
The Melbourne story in one line: volume collapsed (Grand Final), so region percentages are statistically fragile — but the patterns are consistent with recent weeks. The West Growth corridor (Tarneit, Truganina, Werribee, Point Cook) is the stress zone: 19% sold, 25% withdrawn, 44% postponed, with Tarneit alone carrying 6 listings (0 sold, 3 WD, 3 postponed). The North Growth corridor (Wollert, Craigieburn, Mickleham, Epping) continues to be the best-clearing region — 19 of 43 sold with only 7% withdrawals, and a P:W of 2.00:1 that shows vendors there choosing to wait rather than capitulate.
Melbourne Top Sales: Maribyrnong $3.04m · Mount Waverley $2.595m · St Kilda East $2.31m · Wheelers Hill $2.05m · Wantirna South $2.01m · Doncaster East $1.975m · Glen Waverley $1.602m · Mount Waverley $1.535m
Melbourne Stress Suburbs: Tarneit (3 WD / 3 PP of 6) · Hawthorn East (0/3 of 4) · Mickleham (1/2 of 6) · Truganina (0/3 of 5) · Boronia (0/2 of 3) · Fawkner (0/2 of 3) · Glenroy (0/2 of 4) · Reservoir (0/2 of 4) · Southbank (2 WD of 2)
Brisbane's strength is entirely coastal. The metro market is passing in at extreme rates.
| Suburb | Listings | Sold | WD | PP | Passed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surfers Paradise | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| Buderim | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Broadbeach | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Southport | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Mermaid Waters | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Robina | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Paradise Point | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Main Beach | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Labrador | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Mooloolaba | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Brisbane Top Sales: Maroochydore $3.775m · Mermaid Waters $2.935m · Maroochydore $2.8375m · Isle Of Capri $2.80m · Buderim $2.72m · Broadbeach $2.65m · Bardon $2.36m · Mermaid Waters $2.175m · Burleigh Waters $2.14m · Pelican Waters $2.13m · New Farm $2.122m · Main Beach $2.10m
Buyer's Agent Take: If you are buying in South East Queensland, buy within 5km of the beach or don't buy at auction at all. The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast continue to clear at $2m+ while the Brisbane metropolitan market passes in 6-7 of every 10 lots. Vendors in Logan, Ipswich and the southern Brisbane corridor are in denial; there is no auction market there at all.
| Address | Suburb | Status | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Campbelltown | Sold | $2,050,000 |
| — | Ethelton | Sold | $1,231,500 |
| — | Park Holme | Sold | $1,218,000 |
| — | Seacombe Heights | Sold | $1,155,000 |
| — | Rostrevor | Sold | $1,154,000 |
| — | Semaphore Park | Sold | $1,100,000 |
| — | Hectorville | Sold | $1,050,000 |
| — | Kilburn | Sold | $1,015,000 |
Adelaide's stress is in the northern corridor: Salisbury North, Elizabeth North, Evanston Park, Modbury North, Para Hills and Munno Para all appear in the withdrawal list. The inner and inner-south markets (Rostrevor, Hectorville, Kilburn, Parkside) continue to transact.
| Address | Suburb | Status | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Yarralumla | Sold | $2,425,000 |
| — | Bruce | Sold | $1,750,000 |
| — | Ngunnawal | Sold | $1,520,000 |
| — | Red Hill | Sold | $1,500,000 |
| — | Crace | Sold | $1,430,000 |
| — | Downer | Sold | $1,370,000 |
| — | Dickson | Sold | $1,310,000 |
| — | Latham | Sold | $1,207,000 |
Canberra's withdrawals cluster in the newer northern suburbs — Whitlam (2 of 2 withdrawn), Casey, Denman Prospect and Macgregor — plus the inner south (Griffith, Red Hill, Campbell, Watson). Whitlam is a 2020s greenfield estate selling nothing at auction. That is the clearest signal yet that Canberra's new-estate market has run out of buyers.
Derived from listing-level extraction. Agencies are assessed on push-through rate (sold ÷ total listings) and withdrawal rate. Any agency with a withdrawal rate above 40% is over-promising to vendors; any agency with 8+ listings and a push-through below 25% is mispricing systematically.
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Push-Through | Withdrawal % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray White Touma Taylor | 9 | 8 | 89% | 11% |
| Clarke & Humel Property | 7 | 6 | 86% | 0% |
| Belle Property Bondi Junction | 6 | 5 | 83% | 0% |
| McGrath Sans Souci | 8 | 6 | 75% | 0% |
| Belle Property North Shore | 8 | 6 | 75% | 0% |
| Ray White Erskineville / Alexandria / Glebe / Surry Hills | 14 | 10 | 71% | 14% |
| Pace Property Agents | 7 | 5 | 71% | 14% |
| Belle Property Northern Beaches | 6 | 4 | 67% | 0% |
Five of the eight highest push-through agencies recorded zero withdrawals. That is the mark of accurate listing-time pricing.
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Push-Through | Withdrawal % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora Property – North | 10 | 2 | 20% | 70% |
| Uniland Real Estate (Epping & Castle Hill) | 11 | 3 | 27% | 55% |
| Raine & Horne Bardwell Park / Kingsgrove / Earlwood | 6 | 3 | 50% | 50% |
| Ray White Lower North Shore Group | 13 | 4 | 31% | 46% |
| Ray White Eastern Beaches | 18 | 7 | 39% | 44% |
| Highland Sutherland Shire and St George | 7 | 2 | 29% | 43% |
| Sydney Sotheby's International Realty | 28 | 12 | 43% | 39% |
Watchlist — parked stock: Chan Yahl (12 listings, 2 sold, 9 postponed, 17% push-through) is the single most postponed book in Sydney. Ray White Upper North Shore (36 listings — the largest book in the city — 17 sold, 9 withdrawn, 8 postponed) continues to carry the highest absolute parked-stock load.
Buyer's Agent interpretation: Two agencies in Sydney's listing book are carrying withdrawal rates of 50–70% on double-digit volumes. Aurora Property – North (10 listings, 7 withdrawn) and Uniland (11 listings, 6 withdrawn) are winning listings they cannot sell. If you are a vendor who signed with either agency in the last 60 days, you are being used as marketing inventory. Sydney Sotheby's — the largest prestige book in the city — is now at 39% withdrawals across 28 listings. Even the prestige market has lost its price discovery.
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Push-Through | Withdrawal % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jellis Craig Mount Waverley | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0% |
| Ray White Wollert | 11 | 7 | 64% | 0% |
| Gary Peer | 5 | 3 | 60% | 0% |
| Ray White Ferntree Gully | 5 | 3 | 60% | 20% |
| Jellis Craig Moonee Valley | 11 | 6 | 55% | 27% |
| Ray White Craigieburn | 9 | 4 | 44% | 0% |
| Barry Plant Wantirna | 5 | 2 | 40% | 60% |
| Ray White Wantirna | 7 | 0 | 0% | 29% |
Ray White Wantirna sold zero of seven listings and postponed five; Professionals First & Co postponed all five of its listings without a single sale. The Wantirna/outer-east pocket is Melbourne's weakest agency market this week.
| City | Vacancy Rate | Trend | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | 1.30% | Flat (41,039 vacancies, +8.7% YoY) | Tight |
| Canberra | 2.10% | +29% YoY | Loosening — highest in the country |
| Melbourne | 1.80% | Up from 1.7% | Loosening |
| Sydney | 1.70% | +26% YoY | Loosening |
| Brisbane | 0.90% | Flat | Very tight |
| Adelaide | 0.60% | −19% YoY | Critically tight |
| Perth | 0.60% | −14% YoY | Critically tight |
| Hobart | 0.60% | Flat | Very tight |
| Darwin | 0.40% | Tight | Critically tight |
The east-coast majors (Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra) are loosening while the small capitals and Perth stay critically tight. That divergence is being masked by the national 1.3% headline, which is unchanged.
At the cash rate of 4.35% — and facing a probable move to 4.60% on Tuesday — investor variable mortgage rates sit in the 6.0–6.5% band after ANZ and NAB launched a mortgage war in mid-September (ANZ cut variable to 6.25%, NAB to 6.19%; Westpac and CBA hold the lowest big-four variable at 6.09%).
Gross rental yields remain between 3.6% and 4.6% across the capitals. Every Australian capital is cash-flow negative before tax. On a $994,000 Adelaide dwelling at 80% gearing, the investor is roughly $1,250/month out of pocket before tax and before the negative-gearing changes take effect. On a $1.54m Sydney home, the shortfall exceeds $2,000/month.
Monthly shortfall calculation (indicative, 80% LVR, 6.25% investor rate):
| City | Median (Cotality) | Gross Yield | Rent/wk | Interest/wk | Pre-tax Shortfall/wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $1,222,718 | 3.87% | $908 | $1,176 | −$268 |
| Melbourne | $786,718 | 4.60% | $695 | $757 | −$62 |
| Brisbane | $1,080,142 | 3.64% | $756 | $1,039 | −$283 |
| Adelaide | $937,207 | 3.57% | $644 | $901 | −$257 |
| Canberra | $864,998 | 4.14% | $689 | $832 | −$143 |
The structural overlay: the negative gearing changes announced in the 12 May 2026 Federal Budget — abolition for established-dwelling purchases after 7:30pm 12 May 2026 — remain the dominant force in the investor market. ABS data for the June quarter confirmed investor loan commitments fell 8.6% by number and 10.2% by value — the largest quarterly fall since September 2022. This is not a sentiment shift. It is the tax code doing exactly what it was designed to do.
Tuesday 29 September, 2:30pm AEST — RBA decision. The market is pricing ~90% probability of a 25bp hike to 4.60%.
1 week (week ending 3 October): Melbourne's volume rebounds to 700+ auctions post-Grand Final, and its TRUE clearance normalises to the 38–42% range. Sydney, with volume still high, likely prints 48–52% headline / 31–34% TRUE. Expect one further deterioration in Adelaide if the RBA hikes.
| City | 3-Month TRUE CR Outlook | 12-Month Median Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 33–38% | $1.18–1.24m (−3% to +1%) |
| Melbourne | 40–45% | $760–800k (−3% to +2%) |
| Brisbane | 25–30% | $1.04–1.12m (0% to +4%) |
| Adelaide | 25–32% | $900–960k (−4% to +2%) |
| Canberra | 35–40% | $830–880k (−4% to +2%) |
3-month (to Christmas 2026): The spring supply wave peaks in late October/early November. If the RBA hikes twice more (ANZ scenario), Sydney's median retests its February low. Expect a buyer's market in the $1–2.5m Sydney band and the outer Melbourne growth corridors, and continued green shoots in Adelaide and Perth where vacancy remains below 1%.
12-month (to September 2027): Cotality's national index sits 3.6% below its March 2026 peak after five consecutive monthly declines. The structural story — 93% of capital-city suburbs recorded winter value declines, listings 24% above year-ago levels, investor lending down double digits, and negative gearing abolished for established stock — points to a flat-to-lower national market through mid-2027. The first genuine recovery signal will be a clearance rate above 40% TRUE in Sydney sustained for three weeks. We are not close.
| Scenario | Probability | Description | Sydney Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base — Slow grind down | 55% | One more hike, flat-to-−3% national. Affordability limits buyers, supply limits sellers. | $1.18–1.24m |
| Downside — Orderly correction | 30% | Two+ hikes, unemployment ticks up, forced-selling emerges in investor-heavy postcodes. | $1.10–1.16m (−6% to −10%) |
| Upside — Rate pivot rally | 15% | Inflation cools, RBA holds then signals cuts for 2027. Clearance recovers to 45%+. | $1.26–1.34m (+3% to +8%) |
First-home buyers. This is your window, and it is closing. FHOG and stamp duty concessions have never been more generous — the ACT abolished stamp duty for all first-home buyers from 1 July 2026, NSW fully exempts up to $800k (tapering to $1m), WA raised its cap to $600k, and Queensland exempts new homes with no cap. With FHBs now the only investor-adjacent buyer group retaining full negative gearing on new builds, you are competing against investors who have left the established market. Target: Sydney — Sutherland Shire and the Inner West ($0.9–1.5m); Melbourne — North Growth (Wollert, Epping, Craigieburn) where clearance is genuinely functional; Brisbane — avoid auctions entirely and buy privately in Logan/Ipswich where pass-in rates exceed 60%. Strategy: Get pre-approval at 6.09–6.25% (Westpac/CBA are the cheapest big four), bid to your valuation and walk. Do not stretch for a 2021 price.
Investors. The numbers no longer work in established property. Every capital is cash-flow negative pre-tax, investor lending has fallen double digits, and negative gearing is gone for post-12-May-2026 established purchases. The only tax-efficient paths are (a) new builds — which retain both negative gearing and the 50% CGT discount — and (b) Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane, where gross yields (4.15%, 3.57%, 3.64%) are highest and vacancy is under 1%. Target: $550–750k new-build townhouses in Adelaide's northern growth corridor and Perth's south-east, where yield exceeds 4.5%. Avoid: Sydney inner-city units (33% withdrawal rate, lowest yield), Brisbane metro auctions (54% pass-in rate), and any postcode with double-digit postponement ratios.
Upsizers. The trade-up market is the most forgiving it has been since 2019 — you are selling into a soft market and buying into a softer one, which is exactly when the math works. Target: Sydney — Eastern Suburbs or Lower North Shore family homes in the $3–5m band, where prestige stock is still clearing (Cabarita $5.26m, Double Bay $4.60m). Negotiate 5–8% off pre-auction guides. Avoid: anything in Turramurra, Wahroonga or St Ives with a postponed auction date — those vendors are anchored and will waste six weeks of your time.
Downsizers. Vacancy is loosening in Sydney (1.7%) and Melbourne (1.8%) — the best rental-market conditions in three years. If you are selling the family home and renting before you rebuy, this is a rare moment where the rental bridge is affordable. Target: sell in spring into the volume, rent for 12 months, rebuy in the post-correction market in late 2027. Canberra downsizers specifically: your market has a 20% withdrawal rate and the highest vacancy in Australia — there is no urgency to sell.
Three days from a near-certain rate hike, the Australian auction market is doing exactly what a market at the end of a downcycle looks like: volume up, headline rates stable, real clearance in the low 30s, and vendors leaving rather than negotiating. Sydney's two consecutive weeks of improving TRUE clearance is the first genuine floor signal since winter. It is not yet a recovery — the withdrawal rate of 22.5% and the 36.1% unreported rate both argue for caution. But for buyers with finance in place, patience is now an asset rather than a liability. The vendors who have been anchored to 2022 prices for nine months are running out of time, and the calendar is on your side.
| Source | Data Used | Lag |
|---|---|---|
| Domain.com.au — Auction Results | Per-city official clearance, scheduled/reported/sold/withdrawn/passed-in, median; listing-level suburb and agency extraction | Preliminary, same day |
| Cotality (CoreLogic) Housing Value Index | National and capital-city medians, MoM/QoQ/annual changes, below-peak metrics | Monthly (~4 weeks) |
| SQM Research | Vacancy rates (August 2026), weekly asking rents (week ending 20 Sep 2026), monthly advertised rents | 1–4 weeks |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | Cash rate target (4.35%), Monetary Policy Board meeting calendar | Real-time |
| ASX RBA Rate Tracker | Market-implied probabilities for the 29 September decision | Real-time |
| ABS | Monthly CPI indicator (July +3.5%), Q2 2026 Trimmed Mean CPI (+3.6%), Lending Indicators (June quarter), Building Approvals (July −3.6%) | 4–8 weeks |
| REIV | Melbourne scheduled auction volumes by weekend | Weekly |
| MyHousingMarket (Dr A. Wilson) | Comparative clearance rates (Melbourne pre-Grand Final 59.3%) | Weekly |
Domain publishes an "official" clearance rate calculated as Sold ÷ (Sold + Passed In + Withdrawn). This excludes postponed/rescheduled auctions from the denominator entirely, which flatters the headline result. This report computes:
Listing-level data was extracted directly from Domain's live auction-results pages using browser-based JavaScript DOM extraction, with region mapping and in-browser aggregation. The ul.css-1q8knlq selector removed by Domain in September 2026 remains absent; all extraction used the text-based fallback parsing status strings from li[2].textContent. Status strings were prefix-matched to capture Sold, Sold prior to auction, Sold after auction, Withdrawn, Rescheduled (postponement) and Passed in. Total extracted: Sydney 835 listings / 338 suburb articles · Melbourne 229 / 125 · Brisbane 170 articles · Adelaide 68 · Canberra 51.
This report is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.