Week Ending Saturday 19 September 2026 — The Spring Test Begins
Spring selling season opened in earnest this week, and the market failed it at the top and passed it at the bottom. Sydney — the largest, deepest and most important auction market in the country — fell to a 48% clearance rate, down six points in a week and a full 26 points below the same week last year (74%). Melbourne eased to 57%. The two powerhouse markets went backwards together for the first time since August.
At the same time, two smaller markets firmed: Adelaide lifted to 51% and Brisbane — while still the weakest real market in the country at 21.5% TRUE clearance — at least stopped deteriorating. Canberra split the difference: a respectable 48% headline that hides a withdrawal rate that has snapped back to 19.5%, nearly three times last week's level.
The single most consequential number this week is not a clearance rate at all. It is Sydney's 177 withdrawn auctions — up from 133 last week, a 33% jump — against a withdrawal rate of 22.2%, the highest of the five capitals. In May and June, vendors ripped stock off the market. In August, they parked it (postponements). This week they began withdrawing again. That is a shift in vendor psychology, and it is happening three weeks before the Reserve Bank meets.
Headline Numbers — Week Ending 19 September 2026 (Domain preliminary)
| City | Official CR | TRUE CR | Scheduled | Reported | Sold | Withdrawn | Passed In | Median | Deception Gap | WD % | Unreported % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 48% | 29.5% | 797 | 486 | 235 | 177 | 74 | $1,590,000 | 18.5pp | 22.2% | 39.0% |
| Melbourne | 57% | 41.0% | 913 | 659 | 374 | 80 | 205 | $954,000 | 16.0pp | 8.8% | 27.8% |
| Brisbane | 29% | 21.5% | 177 | 129 | 38 | 13 | 78 | $1,100,000 | 7.5pp | 7.3% | 27.1% |
| Adelaide | 51% | 31.7% | 123 | 77 | 39 | 6 | 32 | $1,105,500 | 19.3pp | 4.9% | 37.4% |
| Canberra | 48% | 40.3% | 77 | 64 | 31 | 15 | 18 | $987,500 | 7.7pp | 19.5% | 16.9% |
TRUE CR = Sold ÷ Scheduled (all postponed, withdrawn and no-shows included). Deception Gap = Official − TRUE. Unreported % = share of scheduled auctions with no published result. Source: Domain preliminary auction results.
Total disclosed sales this week: Sydney $234.1M · Melbourne $270.6M · Brisbane $33.4M · Adelaide $34.2M · Canberra $14.9M.
Market Pulse — What the Data Is Really Saying
The Macro Backdrop Just Got Harder
Cotality's national Home Value Index fell 0.9% in August — the fifth consecutive monthly decline — taking national home values 3.6% below the March peak. The downturn is broadening: 93% of capital city suburbs recorded a value decline through winter. Sydney fell 1.4% in the month and is now 7.1% below its February peak, with the current decline already outpacing the 2022–23 correction (−6.6% over the equivalent period).
Against that, the RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35% since 12 August, and its next decision lands on 29 September — three weeks into the spring campaign. NAB expects a 25bp hike to 4.60%; ANZ expects the hike to wait until November. Trimmed-mean inflation is stuck at 3.6%, well outside the 2–3% band. A hike is not priced as the base case by the market, but it is not priced out either.
Key Call-Outs
Sydney entered spring with the market's most closely watched question: was the August improvement real? This week answered it. Official clearance collapsed from 54% to 48% — a six-point fall, versus 74% in the same week last year. TRUE clearance fell to 29.5%, back to where it sat in the first week of August.
The deception gap sits at 18.5 percentage points. Strip away the methodology and what remains is a market where fewer than three in ten scheduled auctions produced a sale.
Sydney — TRUE clearance vs Official CR, last six weeks
| Week | Official | TRUE | Deception Gap | WD% | Withdrawn (abs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug | ~52% | ~30% | ~22pp | ~15% | — |
| 15 Aug | ~55% | ~32% | ~23pp | ~17% | — |
| 22 Aug | 52% | 31.2% | 20.8pp | 8.5% | ~60 |
| 5 Sep | 56% | 35.3% | 20.7pp | 17.6% | ~124 |
| 12 Sep | 54% | 32.0% | 22.0pp | 18.8% | 133 |
| 19 Sep | 48% | 29.5% | 18.5pp | 22.2% | 177 |
The trend line is unambiguous: since the 5 September peak, every measure has deteriorated. The 35.3% TRUE print on 5 September now looks like the spring false dawn rather than the turn.
The unreported problem. Of 797 scheduled auctions, only 486 were reported — 39.0% dark inventory. In a transparent market you expect 10–15%. Four in ten Sydney vendors who took a property to auction this week have published no result. Every Sydney headline should be discounted accordingly, which is precisely why we publish TRUE clearance alongside it.
Withdrawal analysis. At 22.2%, Sydney's withdrawal rate is now the highest of the five capitals and is the leading indicator to watch. When Sydney withdrawals moved from 60 (22 Aug) to 133 (12 Sep) to 177 (19 Sep), vendors are not "waiting for a better market" — they are removing supply. That narrows buyer choice in the short term but signals genuine vendor distress. Historically, a sustained withdrawal rate above 20% precedes price falls by two to three months.
Melbourne's headline eased from 62% to 57%, with TRUE clearance at 41.0% — still the highest TRUE reading of any major capital and 11.5 points clear of Sydney. On any honest comparison, Melbourne is transacting twice as deep as Sydney at the top of its market.
The withdrawal rate of 8.8% is flat on last week and remains normal territory. That is the single most important structural fact about Melbourne: its vendors went through their correction in May and June, priced to the market, and the residual vendor base is realistic. A market cannot drift into crisis at an 8.8% withdrawal rate.
Total Melbourne sales volume was $270.6M — again larger than Sydney's $234.1M despite Sydney's much higher median. Melbourne's market has depth across a wide price band; Sydney's is concentrated at the top and has gone quiet there.
On the median. Melbourne's auction median eased 1.6% to $954,000. Treat this with the usual caution: Melbourne's composition swings can move the median $50K–$80K in a week without any property repricing. What matters is that the top end cleared selectively (Kew $4.01M, Surrey Hills $3.08M, Malvern $2.97M) while the mid-market held.
Brisbane's official clearance slipped a further two points to 29%, TRUE to 21.5%. Of 129 reported auctions, 78 passed in — a 60.5% pass-in rate. That is the highest failure rate at the hammer of any capital this week, and it is the defining feature of this market.
Brisbane vendors are not withdrawing (7.3% withdrawal rate). They are turning up, going under the hammer, and failing. That dynamic — high pass-in, low withdrawal — tells you the vendor base is still engaged and still hopeful, but is not yet willing to meet the market. It is a slow, grinding adjustment rather than a capitulation.
Where it worked: the coastal lifestyle belt and the premium inner ring cleared cleanly. Broadbeach Waters $3.31M, Runaway Bay cleared all three of its auctions ($2.97M headline), Ascot $2.8M, Graceville cleared both ($2.65M top), Grange $2.44M, Annerley $2.24M, Robina $2.03M.
Where it failed: the suburban mid-market and the strata-heavy Gold Coast corridor. Calamvale went 0 from 5. Moorooka went 1 from 6 with five passed in. Wavell Heights went 0 from 3. Surfers Paradise 1 from 5. Broadbeach withdrew both listings; Hope Island, Morningside, Southport and The Gap each failed to convert.
The Brisbane take: read 29% as "less bad at the top end only." The market is bifurcated between the $2M+ coastal/lifestyle buyer and the $700K–$1.1M suburban buyer, and only the former is transacting.
Adelaide produced the week's best genuine improvement: official clearance up to 51% (from 48%), TRUE up to 31.7%, and a withdrawal rate of just 4.9% — the lowest of any capital and roughly one-quarter of Sydney's.
Adelaide's listing-level data shows a postponement-to-withdrawal ratio of 0.67:1 — the only capital where suspensions meaningfully exceed withdrawals, and the classic signature of a market near equilibrium. Adelaide vendors either sell or they pull decisively; they do not park stock and hope.
The median rose 24% to $1,105,500, which is composition rather than repricing. The week's book skewed to the upper bracket: Stonyfell $2.15M, Royston Park $2.005M, Glenelg $1.76M, Urrbrae $1.74M, Black Forest $1.69M, Firle $1.57M, Melrose Park $1.45M.
Adelaide's weakness remains the northern outer corridor: Salisbury North went 0 from 3 (1 withdrawn, 2 passed in), Camden Park 0 from 2, Warradale 1 from 3.
The transparency point: Adelaide's 37.4% unreported rate looks high, but Adelaide is historically the most complete reporter of the five capitals and its dataset is the most trustworthy. That reliability is itself an analytical edge — Adelaide's numbers tell you what is actually happening, without the Sydney-style dark-inventory discount.
Canberra's headline clearance was a respectable 48% with a strong-looking TRUE clearance of 40.3% — second only to Melbourne. Do not be fooled by it.
The withdrawal rate jumped from 13.6% to 19.5% in a single week. The listing-level extraction is even more revealing: across 62 listings, there were zero postponed auctions. Every Canberra vendor facing a soft result this week withdrew the property rather than deferring it. That is the pure Withdrawal Crisis phase, and it is the opposite of the postponement wave we recorded in Sydney.
Canberra remains a thin market — 77 scheduled auctions — so single transactions move the median, which fell 16.8% to $987,500. The distribution was healthy where it cleared: Fadden cleared both, Kingston cleared both, Narrabundah cleared three of four, Red Hill $1.86M, Harrison $1.655M, Hall $1.515M. But Aranda (3 listings, 1 sold, 1 withdrawn), Nicholls, Lyneham and Franklin all showed the withdrawal pattern around the edges.
The Canberra take: the spring lift that arrived in early September has not held. Canberra is now the loosest rental market in the country (2.1% vacancy) and re-entering withdrawal stress. Both point the same way.
The postponement-to-withdrawal ratio is our leading psychological indicator. Computed from listing-level extraction (not Domain's summary widget):
| City | Postponed | Withdrawn | P:W Ratio | Phase | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 179 | 146 | 1.23:1 | Transition → Postponement | Vendors parking stock; fragile |
| Melbourne | 69 | 81 | 0.85:1 | Transition | Balanced; realistic vendors |
| Brisbane | 20 | 27 | 0.74:1 | Transition / Withdrawal-leaning | Failing at the hammer instead |
| Adelaide | 4 | 6 | 0.67:1 | Withdrawal-leaning (equilibrium) | Decisive vendors |
| Canberra | 0 | 14 | 0.00:1 | Withdrawal Crisis | Full capitulation |
Phase thresholds — Withdrawal Crisis: <0.7:1 · Transition: 0.7–1.5:1 · Postponement Wave: >1.5:1.
Sydney's 1.23:1 sits at the lower edge of the postponement zone but trending back toward the transition band — meaning more stock is being removed outright. Canberra's 0.00:1 is the most extreme reading of the year. If spring does not deliver for Sydney by late October, its parked stock becomes distressed stock heading into November.
Method: listing-level extraction from the Domain Sydney auction page — 663 individual listings classified by status (sold / withdrawn / rescheduled / passed in) and aggregated into seven sub-regions plus an outer/regional NSW bucket. Region totals differ from Domain's headline table because they are computed from listing text rather than the summary widget.
| Region | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Passed | Sold % | WD % | PP % | P:W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Suburbs | 75 | 24 | 15 | 27 | 9 | 32% | 20% | 36% | 1.80:1 |
| Inner West | 55 | 25 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 45% | 18% | 24% | 1.30:1 |
| Lower North Shore | 97 | 33 | 16 | 44 | 4 | 34% | 16% | 45% | 2.75:1 |
| Northern Beaches | 32 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 50% | 22% | 25% | 1.14:1 |
| Hills District | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 38% | 38% | 13% | 0.33:1 |
| City Fringe | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 0 | 30% | 30% | 41% | 1.36:1 |
| St George/Sutherland | 28 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 46% | 25% | 14% | 0.57:1 |
| Other (outer/regional NSW) | 331 | 138 | 77 | 67 | 49 | 42% | 23% | 20% | 0.87:1 |
The Eastern Suburbs cleared less than a third of its book this week, and 27 of 75 listings — 36% — were parked for another day. That is the highest postponement concentration of any major Sydney region. The price points are the tell: for the Bondi–Bronte–Coogee–Vaucluse belt, a top sale of $1.5M is a mid-market week, not a prestige week. The upper bracket simply did not transact. Bondi Junction alone postponed three.
Buyer's Agent Take: This is the region with the largest gap between vendor expectation and buyer willingness to pay, and it is now three weeks deep into postponement. Vendors who parked in August need to settle before Christmas. Approach agents directly in the last week of September — immediately after the RBA decision — when a hawkish outcome will do the negotiating for you. Target postponed stock in Coogee (three withdrawals already this week), Rose Bay, Bronte and Randwick. Expect 5–8% off the pre-spring guide on anything that has been parked twice.
The Inner West is holding remarkably well against the broader market. A 45% sold rate and $2.7M+ trades in Erskineville, Petersham, Stanmore and Croydon tell you the family-upsizer segment is still engaging — and paying. Concord's $5.69M was the highest recorded Sydney sale we extracted this week across any region.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Inner West is where Sydney's genuine demand still lives: school catchments, character housing, and buyers who need to move for family reasons rather than sentiment. Competition in the $2M–$3M band has not disappeared. If you are buying here, do not expect a bargain — expect to pay guide. The opportunity in the Inner West is quality: B-grade stock is failing and A-grade is still clearing at premium. Buy the worst house on the best street and you will pay full freight; buy the compromised property and you can negotiate for the first time in two years.
This is the story region of the week. The Lower North Shore accounted for 97 listings, 44 postponements and only 4 passed-in results. Almost nothing failed at the hammer here — because almost nothing reached the hammer. Wahroonga postponed 9 of 13 listings. St Ives postponed 7 of 14. Across the Chatswood–Killara–Gordon–Pymble corridor the pattern repeats.
A 2.75:1 postponement ratio is the highest regional reading we have recorded in this market cycle. It is the pure "spring will save me" psychology — and it is concentrated in the $2M–$4M family-home belt where vendors have the balance sheet to wait and the most to lose from a discount.
Buyer's Agent Take: This is your highest-leverage hunting ground in the country right now, but you must be patient and you must be organised. Build a watchlist of every postponed listing in Wahroonga, St Ives, Killara, Gordon, Pymble and Turramurra and track it weekly. The moment a vendor re-lists at auction for a second time, their resolve has broken. Make a written offer pre-auction at 7–10% below the original guide with a short finance-free settlement — that is what a seller with two failed campaigns and a Christmas deadline actually wants. Do not chase them in the first week of a re-listing; that is when they still believe the number.
The Northern Beaches was the only Sydney region to clear half its book, and it did it with a remarkably low pass-in count (1 from 32). Balgowlah's $4M and Avalon Beach's $2.85M show the beachside premium is intact. Dee Why and Mona Vale each saw two withdrawals — the investor-grade apartment fringe, not the house market.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Northern Beaches is running a two-speed market: beachside houses clear, inland and apartment stock struggles. If you are buying a family home in Manly, Fairlight, Freshwater or Balgowlah, expect competition and expect to pay. If you are buying a unit or a Dee Why/Cromer entry-level house, you are one of few buyers and should negotiate hard. The 22% withdrawal rate is concentrated in the lower-quality stock — which is exactly where your margin sits.
Only eight Hills District listings appeared this week, and three were withdrawn. The sample is too thin to draw a hard conclusion, but combined with the $2.05M top sale, the signal is consistent with what we have tracked all winter: the new-estate and investor-heavy fringe is where Sydney's stress concentrates.
Buyer's Agent Take: Do not read too much into an eight-listing sample. But if you are buying in Kellyville, North Kellyville or Bella Vista, understand that the vendor cohort there is the most financially stretched in Sydney — heavily leveraged investors who bought into the 2021–22 estate pipeline. Their motivation is financial, not lifestyle. That gives you pricing power.
The City Fringe — Darlinghurst, Surry Hills, Paddington, Potts Point, Pyrmont, Redfern, Zetland, Waterloo — produced the weakest combination of the week: a 30% sold rate, a 30% withdrawal rate, and not a single passed-in result. Every listing either sold, or was pulled. There is no middle ground in the inner-city strata market right now, and the two $900K-and-under sales (Alexandria $660K, Rosebery $900K) tell you where the volume is.
Buyer's Agent Take: The inner-city apartment market is where Sydney's investor retreat is most visible, and it is the direct consequence of the May Budget's negative gearing changes. New investor purchases of established units no longer get the deduction — so the marginal buyer has left the market, and vendor expectations have not adjusted. If you are a first-home buyer, this is your window: negotiate 6–10% off guide on any unit that has been withdrawn and re-listed. If you are an investor, buy new-build or off-the-plan to retain negative gearing, not established stock.
St George and the Sutherland Shire delivered the second-best sold rate in Sydney at 46%, with Cronulla's $4.5M the standout. Notably, this is the one major Sydney region where withdrawals outnumber postponements (0.57:1) — vendors here are decisive, not hopeful. That is typically a sign of a market closer to equilibrium than the rest of the city.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Shire is being carried by owner-occupier family demand — beach lifestyle, good schools, and buyers who are not rate-sensitive at the margin because they are trading up within the area. It is not cheap and it will not soften much. If you want in, target the withdrawn stock in Gymea Bay and Miranda (both saw multiple withdrawals) rather than waiting for a broad correction that is unlikely to arrive here.
Half of Sydney's extracted listing volume now sits outside the metropolitan ring — Wollongong, Illawarra, Newcastle, the Central Coast, Bathurst, Orange, Tamworth, the Tweed and the south coast. This bucket cleared 42% of its book, materially better than the metropolitan aggregate, and produced the week's second-highest sale: West Ryde $5.625M (a four-title redevelopment site) alongside regional titles such as Soldiers Point $795K, Tamworth $720K and Griffith $731K.
Buyer's Agent Take: Regional NSW is where Sydney's affordability refugees have gone, and the data shows they are still buying. But note the composition: much of the volume is at $600K–$900K, and the buyer is typically a first-home buyer or a downsizer. If you are investing regionally, focus on the supply-constrained coastal centres (Illawarra, Newcastle, Tweed) rather than the inland cities where land release is unconstrained.
| Region | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Postponed | Passed | Sold % | WD % | P:W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inner East | 87 | 42 | 9 | 7 | 29 | 48% | 10% | 0.78:1 |
| Inner South | 44 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 61% | 9% | 1.25:1 |
| Inner North | 67 | 30 | 8 | 5 | 24 | 45% | 12% | 0.63:1 |
| CBD/Inner | 39 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 56% | 10% | 0.75:1 |
| North Growth | 64 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 63% | 5% | 1.00:1 |
| West Growth | 25 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 24% | 20% | 1.00:1 |
| South East Growth | 15 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 27% | 33% | 0.20:1 |
| Other | 389 | 215 | 43 | 40 | 91 | 55% | 11% | 0.93:1 |
Top performers. North Growth (Craigieburn, Epping, Wollert, South Morang) was the best-clearing region in the entire country this week — 63% sold with a 5% withdrawal rate. Inner South (Brighton, Caulfield, Bentleigh, Beaumaris) cleared 61%. Yield-driven outer-north buyers are the most active cohort in Victoria.
Stress zones. The two mortgage-belt corridors failed hard. West Growth (Tarneit, Werribee, Point Cook, Melton) cleared just 6 of 25 listings — 24% — with a 20% withdrawal rate. South East Growth (Cranbourne, Clyde North, Berwick, Pakenham) was worse on ratios: 4 of 15 sold (27%) with a 33% withdrawal rate and a 0.20:1 postponement ratio. These are the highest-leverage, first-home-buyer-heavy estates in the country, and they are the first to crack when rates stay high.
The Melbourne take: Victoria's correction is now geographically differentiated. The established inner and north is functioning; the western and south-eastern growth corridors are in genuine distress. If you are buying in Melbourne, the growth corridors are where the value is — but only if you are prepared to hold through a full cycle.
Computed from listing-level extraction. Agencies with fewer than 4 (Sydney) / 6 (Melbourne) listings are excluded. Push-through = sold ÷ total listings; WD% = withdrawn ÷ total listings.
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Push-Through | WD % | Passed In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray White Erskineville | Alexandria | Glebe | Surry Hills | 10 | 7 | 70% | 0% | 2 |
| Belle Property Northern Beaches | 12 | 8 | 67% | 0% | 4 |
| BresicWhitney Inner West | 6 | 4 | 67% | 17% | 1 |
| Adrian William | 14 | 8 | 57% | 21% | 0 |
| McGrath Parramatta | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0% | 1 |
| Ray White (Schofields | Riverstone) | 7 | 4 | 57% | 0% | 2 |
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Push-Through | WD % | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Tripp | 5 | 1 | 20% | 60% | Severe — 3 of 5 pulled |
| Ray White Touma Taylor | 8 | 1 | 13% | 50% | Severe — 4 of 8 pulled |
| The Agency | 9 | 2 | 22% | 44% | High |
| NGFarah | 9 | 4 | 44% | 44% | High |
| Uniland (Epping & Castle Hill) | 18 | 7 | 39% | 39% | High — largest flagged book |
| Raine & Horne Lower North Shore | 8 | 3 | 38% | 38% | High |
| Pello — Northern Suburbs | 8 | 1 | 13% | 38% | Severe |
Watchlist — volume with poor conversion: Ray White Upper North Shore listed 23 properties and sold only 4 (17% push-through), with 14 postponed. Sydney Sotheby's International Realty listed 17 and sold 4 (24%), with 8 postponed. These are not failed campaigns in the withdrawal sense — they are campaigns that have been parked, which is a different risk: the vendor remains exposed to a market that may not improve.
| Agency | Listings | Push-Through | WD % | Passed In |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jellis Craig Bentleigh | 9 | 78% | 0% | 11% |
| Marshall White Boroondara | 11 | 73% | 0% | 27% |
| Harcourts Rata & Co | 21 | 67% | 10% | 14% |
| Jas Stephens Real Estate | 13 | 62% | 0% | 31% |
| Heavyside | 10 | 60% | 10% | 20% |
| Jellis Craig Doncaster | 8 | 63% | 25% | 13% |
The Melbourne pattern is stark and reassuring: five of the six highest-volume agencies recorded zero or near-zero withdrawals. Jellis Craig's network across Bentleigh, Doncaster, Whitehorse and Fitzroy all posted 50%+ push-through with single-digit withdrawal rates. That is the signature of agencies pricing accurately at listing time rather than chasing a number to win the listing.
Buyer's agent interpretation. Agency behaviour is the most under-used intelligence in this market. A 60% withdrawal rate does not mean the agency is incompetent — it means it won the listing by quoting a price the vendor wanted to hear and the market then refused to pay. When you see a property listed by one of the flagged agencies, you can reasonably assume the reserve is above market and prepare accordingly. Conversely, a Jellis Craig or Marshall White listing in Melbourne is more likely to be priced to sell — which means you should compete, not lowball. Track these agencies and your first offer will be a better-calibrated one.
SQM Research, August 2026 vacancy release (published 15 September) and weekly rents index to week ending 12 September 2026. Vacancy data carries a ~4-week lag; rents are ~1 week behind.
| City | Vacancy Rate | MoM | YoY Change | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canberra | 2.1% | ↑ from 1.8% | +29% | Loosest capital — normalising |
| Melbourne | 1.8% | ↑ from 1.7% | Flat | Tightening structurally, easing cyclically |
| Sydney | 1.7% | Held | +26% | Largest annual stock increase of any capital |
| National | 1.3% | Held | +8.7% | Structurally tight |
| Brisbane | 0.9% | Unchanged | −10% | Very tight |
| Adelaide | 0.6% | Unchanged | −19% | Severely tight |
| Perth | 0.6% | Held | −14% | Severely tight |
| Hobart | 0.6% | Unchanged | ↑ | Tight |
| Darwin | 0.4% | ↑ from 0.3% | −30% | Extremely tight (tiny base) |
The national picture: 1.3% vacancy, unchanged from July, with 41,039 vacant dwellings nationally — up ~3,300 (8.7%) on a year ago. The balanced-market benchmark is 2.5–3.5%. Every capital remains far below it, and four (Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Darwin) remain below 1%.
But the market is splitting. Sydney (+26%) and Canberra (+29%) now have dramatically more vacant stock than a year ago, while Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Darwin have fewer. The east-coast majors are loosening; the smaller capitals are still tightening. This matters enormously for investor strategy — the two markets with the worst price declines have the loosest rentals.
| City | Combined Rent | Houses | Units | Rolling Month | 12-Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $908.77 | $1,131.17 | $756.88 | −0.5% | +5.0% |
| Melbourne | $696.00 | $826.79 | $600.86 | +0.2% | +6.1% |
| Brisbane | $756.15 | $845.17 | $647.67 | +0.5% | +7.7% |
| Perth | $798.13 | $891.77 | $664.44 | −0.3% | +6.5% |
| Adelaide | $644.04 | $691.18 | $550.85 | +0.4% | +3.4% |
| Capital city average | $794.46 | $925.00 | $679.00 | −0.1% | +5.9% |
| National | $702.92 | $776.00 | $618.00 | +0.6% | +7.7% |
The rental upswing is over in the biggest markets — but the level is brutal. Sydney's combined asking rent fell 0.5% over the month; SQM describes it as "the clearest case" of a market that has turned. Yet a Sydney house still asks $1,131 a week and a Sydney unit $757. The distinction between "rents falling" and "rents affordable" matters: at −0.5% a month, it would take a decade to return to 2021 levels.
Melbourne is the counter-cyclical set-up of the year. Its dwelling values are down 4.7% annually while combined rents are up 6.1% — mechanically lifting gross yields. Melbourne vacancy (1.8%) is unchanged year-on-year even as prices fell. Falling prices plus stable-to-tightening rentals plus ~$460,000 lower median dwelling value than Sydney is the most interesting single-city configuration in the country.
Using Cotality medians (1 September) against SQM asking rents:
| City | Median Dwelling | Combined Rent | Gross Yield | vs Investor Loan (~6.0–6.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | $786,718 | $696.00 | 4.60% | −1.4 to −1.9pp |
| Perth | $999,987 | $798.13 | 4.15% | −1.9 to −2.4pp |
| Canberra | $864,998 | $687.88 | 4.14% | −1.9 to −2.4pp |
| Sydney | $1,222,718 | $908.77 | 3.87% | −2.1 to −2.6pp |
| Brisbane | $1,080,142 | $756.15 | 3.64% | −2.4 to −2.9pp |
| Adelaide | $937,207 | $644.04 | 3.57% | −2.4 to −2.9pp |
The monthly cash-flow shortfall. At an investor variable rate of ~6.2%, every capital is cash-flow negative before tax. On a $786,718 Melbourne dwelling with $696/week rent: gross yield 4.60%, debt cost 6.20% — a monthly shortfall of roughly $1,000 on 80% gearing. On a $1,222,718 Sydney dwelling the shortfall is roughly $1,500 per month.
This is the structural consequence of the May Budget. Negative gearing on established dwellings was abolished for purchases after 7:30pm on 12 May 2026 (grandfathered for properties under contract before that date, and negative gearing ends 30 June 2027 for post-announcement purchases). New builds retain both negative gearing and the 50% CGT discount. Commbank estimates the change is equivalent to a 90–155 basis point increase in the effective investor mortgage rate for affected purchases. With yields already 140–290bp below the debt cost, the marginal established-property investor has left the market — and will not return.
Investor strategy implication: the only negatively-geared game remaining is new supply. If you are buying for yield and tax, buy off-the-plan or house-and-land in the supply-constrained corridors where rental growth is still running (Brisbane +7.7%, Perth +6.5%, Melbourne +6.1%). If you are buying established, you are buying for capital growth and must be able to hold a cash-flow-negative asset through 2027.
Everything in this market now points at one date. The RBA's Monetary Policy Board meets 28–29 September, with the decision at 2:30pm AEST on the 29th. The cash rate has been 4.35% since 12 August. Trimmed-mean inflation is 3.6% — outside the band, and not falling fast enough. NAB expects a hike to 4.60%; ANZ expects the RBA to wait until November.
| Scenario | Probability | Market Impact | Auction CR Impact (4–8 week lag) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold at 4.35% | 55% | Relief rally in buyer sentiment; spring campaign continues | Sydney stabilises mid-30s TRUE; Melbourne holds 41–44% |
| Hike to 4.60% | 30% | Confidence hit; vendor withdrawals spike again | Sydney TRUE falls to 25–28%; growth corridors crack harder |
| Hawkish hold (hike signalled for Nov) | 15% | Slow-burn effect; buyers pause without panicking | Gradual deterioration; postponed stock stays parked |
Volume will rise and clearance will fall. Spring listing volumes are still climbing — Sydney scheduled 797 this week against 706 a fortnight ago, and Melbourne 913 against 768. More stock plus the same thin buyer pool means more passes and more withdrawals. Expect Sydney official clearance in the 45–49% band, TRUE at 27–31%, and a withdrawal rate that stays above 20%. Melbourne should hold the high 50s officially with TRUE around 39–42%.
Watch the auction-eve period. Vendors increasingly sell before the hammer rather than risk a pass-in. In a market like this, a large pre-auction sale ratio is a sign vendors are capitulating on price — watch for it in the Lower North Shore and Eastern Suburbs.
Spring will not rescue this market. The arithmetic is not there. Total scheduled auctions are running well below last year (Sydney 797 vs ~989 in the comparable 2025 week), buyer borrowing capacity is constrained at a 4.35–4.60% cash rate, and the Budget's investor changes have removed a structural buyer cohort. Cotality's national index has now fallen for five consecutive months and 93% of capital city suburbs recorded winter declines.
| City | 3-Month Price Outlook | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | −2% to −4% | Decline outpacing 2022–23; 39% dark inventory; prestige parked |
| Melbourne | −1% to −2% | Correction front-loaded in May–June; yields improving; depth supports |
| Brisbane | −1% to −2% | Still +10.8% annually, but 60% pass-in signals more adjustment |
| Adelaide | 0% to −1% | Most disciplined market; 4.9% withdrawal rate; least stressed |
| Canberra | −1% to −3% | Withdrawal crisis returning; loosest rentals in the country |
| Perth | −1% to −2% | 15.6% annual growth fading; rents plateauing |
The most likely path is a soft landing arriving in the first half of 2027, not a hard correction. Three forces support values from below even as they soften: population growth remains very strong, the rental market is still structurally undersupplied (every capital below 2% vacancy), and the construction pipeline is not delivering enough dwellings. Three forces weigh from above: rates stay restrictive through 2026, the Budget's investor changes keep the marginal buyer out of established stock, and affordability is stretched.
NAB's base case (a hike now, then three cuts from August 2027) points to the same conclusion: 2026 is a price-adjustment year; 2027 is the recovery year. The Sydney correction is 7.1% deep and still running — a further 3–5% would take it to a 10–12% peak-to-trough decline, which is a normal cycle, not a crash. Melbourne's is already 6.8% below its March 2022 peak and is closer to its floor.
First-Home Buyers — "Your market is the growth corridors and the inner-city apartments"
This is the best first-home-buyer market since 2022, and the reason is specific: two cohorts that used to compete with you have left. Investors have been removed from established stock by the negative gearing changes, and downsizers are staying put because they cannot buy back in cheaply.
Investors — "Established is dead. New supply is the only trade."
Upsizers (Family Buyers) — "This is your window, and it closes in 2027"
Downsizers & Retirees — "Sell the house, rent the lifestyle, wait"
| Source | Data Used | Timeliness | URL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domain | Auction clearance, scheduled/reported/sold/withdrawn/passed-in, medians, individual listings | Preliminary, current week | domain.com.au/auction-results |
| Cotality (CoreLogic) | Home Value Index, capital city medians, monthly change | 1 September 2026 release | cotality.com/au/our-data/indices |
| SQM Research | Vacancy rates (monthly), weekly asking rents index | Vacancy: August 2026 (15 Sep release); Rents: week ending 12 Sep 2026 | sqmresearch.com.au |
| Property Update | Capital city median tables, market commentary | 2 September 2026 | propertyupdate.com.au |
| RBA | Cash rate, policy meeting calendar | Cash rate effective 12 August 2026; next decision 29 September 2026 | rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate |
| Commbank Economics | Budget impact analysis, investor rate equivalent | May 2026 | commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom |
| AFR / media reporting | National clearance context, market sentiment | 12 September 2026 | afr.com |
All five capital cities were extracted from the Domain auction results pages for the week Sunday 13 September to Saturday 19 September 2026. Sydney and Melbourne were extracted in the primary session; Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra were extracted via independent browser sessions to avoid cross-session rate limiting. Listing-level classification used prefix-matching on the status string (Sold / Sold prior to auction / Sold after auction → sold; Withdrawn → withdrawn; Rescheduled / Postponed → postponed; Passed in → passed), parsed from the listing card text node. Region aggregation for Sydney (7 regions + outer/regional NSW) and Melbourne (7 regions + other) used suburb-name mappings; all unmapped suburbs fall into the "Other" bucket.
Caveats: (1) Domain's preliminary data is revised upward as late results are reported. (2) Listing-level totals differ from Domain's summary widget because some listings render without a status and are excluded from classification. (3) Region aggregates are computed from listing text, not the summary table. (4) Cotality and PropTrack medians use different methodologies (hedonic vs repeat-sales) and can diverge; Cotality figures are used throughout. (5) Auction medians are compositional and can move $50K–$80K week-to-week without any change in underlying values — always read them alongside the sold mix.
This report is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.