The auction market is in structural distress. For the week ending 20 June 2026, the combined 5-city TRUE clearance rate — sold at auction divided by total scheduled — fell to 30.7% (639 sold from 2,079 scheduled). The Domain-reported official clearance rate of 47% Sydney and 52% Melbourne masks a market where fewer than 1 in 3 scheduled auctions results in a sale.
RBA held at 4.35% in its 15–16 June meeting — the first pause after three consecutive 25bp hikes in 2026. But the Board retained explicit hawkish guidance: "will do what it considers necessary … including increasing the cash rate target further if required." The market is now cleaved: CBA, NAB, ANZ, and HSBC all forecast hold through 2026 and cuts from 2027, while Westpac — the lone hawk — expects two more hikes to 4.85% by September.
Sydney's withdrawal rate hit 40.6% — the sixth consecutive week above the 35% crisis threshold. This means over 4 in 10 reported auctions in Sydney were pulled by vendors who would rather not sell than meet the market. The TRUE clearance rate of 28.8% (249 sold from 865 scheduled) is abysmal by any historical measure.
Brisbane's auction market has effectively collapsed. A 20% Domain clearance rate — TRUE clearance just 12.6% — with only 17 properties sold at auction from 135 scheduled. The private treaty market, not auctions, is now the only functioning channel.
The RBA hold changes nothing for auction markets. Restrictive financial conditions — standard variable rates at 6.2–6.8%, serviceability buffers at 3%, negative gearing/CGT structural uncertainty — continue to freeze buyer confidence. Winter seasonality is amplifying the downturn but is not its cause.
| City | Official CR | Scheduled | Reported | Sold | Withdrawn | Passed In | Total Sales | Median | TRUE CR | Withdrawal % | YoY CR Δ | Deception Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 47% | 865 | 525 | 249 | 213 | 63 | $239.0M | $1,520,000 | 28.8% | 40.6% 🔴 | –22pp | 18.2pp |
| Melbourne | 52% | 881 | 599 | 314 | 115 | 170 | $195.5M | $906,000 | 35.6% | 19.2% 🟡 | –14pp | 16.4pp |
| Brisbane | 20% | 135 | 87 | 17 | 18 | 52 | $19.7M | $1,127,500 | 12.6% | 20.7% 🟡 | –23pp | 7.4pp |
| Adelaide | 54% | 115 | 61 | 33 | 6 | 22 | $25.4M | $855,000 | 28.7% | 9.8% 🟢 | –21pp | 25.3pp |
| Canberra | 43% | 83 | 61 | 26 | 17 | 18 | $16.2M | $970,000 | 31.3% | 27.9% 🟠 | –14pp | 11.7pp |
| Combined | 49.1% | 2,079 | 1,333 | 639 | 369 | 325 | $495.8M | — | 30.7% | 27.7% | — | 18.4pp |
Key signals this week:
RBA context: The hold at 4.35% was unanimous and widely expected. But the Board's statement was characteristically hawkish — inflation "picked up materially" and remains "still too high," driven by capacity pressures and Middle East oil supply disruption. The Board explicitly reserved the right to hike again. The next meeting is 11 August 2026, giving markets an 8-week window of rate certainty — but with Westpac still forecasting two more hikes, this certainty is fragile.
The market pulse: This is a market where vendors are capitulating (withdrawals), buyers are waiting (low sold counts), and agents are struggling (sky-high passed-in rates). The RBA pause provides a temporary psychological floor but does nothing to fix the affordability math. At 6.2–6.8% mortgage rates, the median Sydney house buyer needs ~$310,000 household income — roughly the top 8% of households. The pool of qualified buyers is shrinking, not growing.
Sydney's 47% official clearance rate is the lowest since the COVID lockdown auctions of April 2020. The TRUE clearance rate of 28.8% tells the real story — only 249 properties changed hands at auction from 865 scheduled. The remaining 616 scheduled auctions either: withdrew (213, 24.6% of scheduled), passed in (63, 7.3%), or went unreported (340, 39.3%).
Withdrawal Epidemic — Six Weeks and Counting
| Week Ending | 16 May | 23 May | 30 May | 6 Jun | 13 Jun | 20 Jun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Withdrawal % | ~31% | ~34% | 35.9% | 36.7% | 36.8% | 40.6% |
| Official CR | 49% | 49% | 51% | 52% | 51% | 47% |
| TRUE CR | ~28% | ~27% | 27.5% | 31.3% | 30.4% | 28.8% |
| Unreported % | ~35% | ~38% | 45.5% | 27.7% | 40.5% | 39.3% |
The withdrawal rate is a leading indicator of price falls. When vendors would rather pull their property than accept the clearing price, it means the bid-ask spread has become unbridgeable. We are now in uncharted territory — six consecutive weeks above 35% is unprecedented. The previous worst run was 3 weeks above 28% in November 2018.
Volume Analysis: Scheduled auctions fell from 1,033 to 865 WoW — a 16% decline, consistent with normal winter seasonal patterns. But this makes the 40.6% withdrawal rate even more alarming: fewer auctions should mean less competition and better clearance, yet the rate deteriorated further.
Median Price Resilience: The $1,520,000 median is down from $1,595,000 on 6 June (-4.7%) but comparable to the $1,462,500 on 13 June. Median prices in small-sample auction markets are highly volatile and skewed by the mix effect — lower-priced properties are disproportionately withdrawn, inflating the median of what does sell. Do not read price resilience as market strength.
Prior-to-Auction Sales Surge: Individual listing extraction reveals a surge in "Sold Prior" outcomes across premium suburbs. In Balgowlah (Northern Beaches), Manly Vale, Glenhaven, and Cherrybrook, prior-to-auction sales dominated. This is a rational vendor response — if the auction market is toxic, sell before the hammer falls. But it also means genuine auction-day competition is evaporating.
Melbourne's 52% official clearance with 881 scheduled makes it the highest-volume auction market of the week, but the TRUE rate of 35.6% and 19.2% withdrawal rate tell a market under significant strain.
Key Melbourne Metrics: - 881 scheduled, 599 reported, 314 sold, 115 withdrawn, 170 passed in - 32% unreported (282 auctions) — material distortion of headline rate - $906,000 median — significantly lower than Sydney's $1.52M, reflecting Melbourne's higher unit share (33% of dwelling stock) - 170 passed in (28.4% of reported) — the highest passed-in share of any capital. Auctions are failing to meet reserve, then sitting in post-auction negotiation. The "clearance rate after negotiation" is unknown but likely 10–15pp higher than the auction-day rate.
Suburb-Level Stress Signals: - Camberwell (Inner East): 6 passed in — premium family market is frozen - Kew (Inner East): traditionally strong auction suburb showing significant weakness - Craigieburn (North Growth): stress zone with high withdrawal concentration - Bundoora: bright spot with 6 sold on auction day - Cheltenham: active middle-ring market with 4 sold
Melbourne vs Sydney Divergence: Melbourne's withdrawal rate of 19.2% is less than half Sydney's 40.6%. Why? Melbourne's lower median ($906K vs $1,520K) means mortgage serviceability is less stretched for a given income. An $800K mortgage at 6.5% costs ~$5,050/month vs $1.3M mortgage at $8,200/month. The affordability math is simply more manageable in Melbourne.
Brisbane's auction market has hit a wall. A 20% clearance rate (12.6% TRUE) with only 17 properties sold from 135 scheduled is catastrophic by any measure.
The Numbers: - 135 scheduled, only 87 reported (35.6% unreported) - 17 sold, 18 withdrawn, 52 passed in, 8 sold prior - Median $1,127,500 — skewed by a handful of high-end sales (Bilinga $3.82M, Helensvale $2.30M, New Farm $2.05M) - Without the Gold Coast luxury outliers, the median would be closer to $900K
Suburb-Level Crisis Map: - Broadbeach Waters: 3 listings, all 3 withdrawn — zero auction-day sales - Paradise Point: 4 listings, 3 withdrawn, 1 prior sale - Surfers Paradise: 4 listings, 2 withdrawn, 2 postponed - Hope Island: 3 listings, 2 withdrawn - Deception Bay: 8 listings (busiest suburb), 3 sold ($830K–$945K), 5 passed in - Dicky Beach: the only true bright spot — 2 for 2 sold ($1.65M, $2.02M)
The Gold Coast Premium Problem: Brisbane's auction median is being kept elevated by a handful of Gold Coast and inner-city premium sales while the broad market has stopped transacting at auction entirely. The private treaty market — which accounts for ~85% of Brisbane sales — is the real story, but it's opaque and lags by 30–60 days.
Auction is Broken in Brisbane: With only 17 auction-day sales from 135 scheduled, the auction method is no longer a viable sales channel in Brisbane. Agents who insist on auction campaigns in this environment are doing their vendors a disservice. Expect a structural shift toward expressions of interest and private treaty.
Adelaide's 54% official clearance rate — the highest of any capital this week — sounds healthy until you examine the numbers. TRUE clearance: 28.7%. Only 33 sold from 115 scheduled. Deception gap: 25.3 percentage points — the widest of any city.
The Adelaide Puzzle: - Official CR improved from 44% last week to 54% this week - But this was driven by a collapse in reported auctions (61 vs 48 last week) rather than more sales - 47% of scheduled auctions went unreported (54 of 115) - With only 6 withdrawals, Adelaide's vendor behaviour is notably different from Sydney — vendors are not panicking, they're just not selling - Median $855,000 reflects Adelaide's still-affordable price point relative to incomes
Notable Sales: - 49 Regent St, Kensington: $1,990,000 (top sale) - 131 Barton Tce, North Adelaide: $1,200,000 (townhouse) - 28 Stanley St, Woodville: $1,350,000 - 1B Grand Central Av, Hallett Cove: $1,261,000
Adelaide's market is smaller and structurally different — lower volumes, higher private treaty share, less auction culture. The 25.3pp deception gap is a methodology artifact amplified by small sample size. Don't read it as systemic failure — read it as: Domain's clearance rate is a poor metric for Adelaide.
Canberra's 43% official clearance (31.3% TRUE) is weak but not catastrophic. The 27.9% withdrawal rate is elevated and warrants attention.
Key Canberra Metrics: - 83 scheduled, 61 reported, 26 sold, 17 withdrawn, 18 passed in - Median $970,000 (or N/A — Domain may withhold small-sample medians) - 26.5% unreported — lower than the other capitals, suggesting less vendor reluctance - Withdrawal rate of 27.9% (vs 37.5% last week) improved but remains in HIGH territory
The ACT Policy Overhang: The ACT government's 10 June announcement of full stamp duty abolition for first home buyers from 1 July 2026 creates a powerful incentive to delay purchasing decisions. Why buy now and pay stamp duty when July 1 eliminates it? This is likely suppressing June auction activity and could produce a July mini-boom. Canberra's public service employment base (stable incomes, defined benefit pensions) provides a structural floor under prices that doesn't exist in Sydney or Melbourne. The market is weak but not in crisis — the 31.3% TRUE clearance with 27.9% withdrawal is bad but reflects a waiting game, not a collapse.
| City | Official CR Δ | TRUE CR Δ | Withdrawal Δ | Volume Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | –4pp | –1.6pp | +3.8pp | –168 |
| Melbourne | –3pp | –3.1pp | +0.2pp | –40 |
| Brisbane | –7pp | –6.4pp | +9.1pp | –2 |
| Adelaide | +10pp | +8.3pp | –6.9pp | +12 |
| Canberra | +2pp | +3.0pp | –9.6pp | –9 |
Three of five cities deteriorated. Sydney's withdrawal rate jumped 3.8pp to 40.6%. Brisbane's TRUE clearance fell 6.4pp to 12.6%. Adelaide's improvement is genuine but from a very low base, and is amplified by unreported auction concentration. Canberra improved modestly but remains weak in absolute terms.
Based on individual listing extraction from Domain.com.au (400 listings analysed), cross-referenced with suburb-level aggregation and prior week patterns.
Suburbs: Bondi, Bondi Beach, Bronte, Coogee, Bellevue Hill, Double Bay, Rose Bay, Vaucluse, Dover Heights
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Approx. listings | ~55 |
| Sold (auction day) | ~8 (14.5%) |
| Sold Prior | ~25 (45.5%) |
| Withdrawn | ~12 (21.8%) |
| Postponed | ~5 (9.1%) |
| Passed In | ~5 (9.1%) |
Key Signal: The Eastern Suburbs has effectively abandoned the auction process. Prior-to-auction sales dominate — vendors are taking the certain offer over the uncertain hammer. Auction-day sales are almost non-existent in the prestige belt.
Notable: - Coogee: multiple withdrawn listings — beachside prestige not immune - Bronte: strong prior sales at premium prices - Bellevue Hill / Vaucluse: very thin auction activity — these markets were never auction-heavy
Buyer's Agent Take: The Eastern Suburbs is now a negotiation market, not an auction market. Prior sales at 45%+ of listings means vendors are agreeing to deals before campaign end. Buyers: make your best offer in week 3 of the campaign, not week 4. Vendors are listening. The $5M+ prestige segment is still transacting (cash buyers, rate-insensitive), but $2M–$4M is frozen — these buyers have mortgages.
Suburbs: Balmain, Drummoyne, Rozelle, Annandale, Leichhardt, Marrickville, Erskineville, Newtown, Dulwich Hill, Ashfield
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Approx. listings | ~70 |
| Sold (auction day) | ~12 (17.1%) |
| Sold Prior | ~22 (31.4%) |
| Withdrawn | ~22 (31.4%) |
| Postponed | ~7 (10.0%) |
| Passed In | ~7 (10.0%) |
Key Signal: 31.4% withdrawal rate across the Inner West. This is crisis territory. Drummoyne, Erskineville, and Eastwood each recorded 3+ withdrawn listings. Vendors in the Inner West bought at peak 2022–2024 prices and cannot accept current clearing prices. The mortgage cliff is real here.
Notable: - Annandale: 78 Whites Creek La sold $2.325M — a genuine auction-day result in a frozen market - Erskineville: 3 withdrawn — former FHB upgrade corridor now unaffordable at 6.5% rates - Marrickville: mixed results, prior sales dominating
Buyer's Agent Take: The Inner West is where Sydney's correction will price-discover first. With 31.4% withdrawals, vendors who must sell are capitulating. Look for motivated vendors in Erskineville (2-bed terraces) and Ashfield (3-bed houses) — these segments are 15–20% off peak and sellers are finally acknowledging it. Make offers 12–15% below the guide and be prepared to walk. The vendor will call back in week 5.
Suburbs: Mosman, Cremorne, Neutral Bay, Cammeray, Crows Nest, North Sydney, Chatswood, Artarmon, Lane Cove
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Approx. listings | ~55 |
| Sold (auction day) | ~6 (10.9%) |
| Sold Prior | ~15 (27.3%) |
| Withdrawn | ~12 (21.8%) |
| Postponed | ~16 (29.1%) |
| Passed In | ~6 (10.9%) |
Key Signal: 29.1% postponement rate — the highest of any Sydney region. Lower North Shore vendors are freezing, not fleeing. They have the financial capacity to wait and are choosing to postpone rather than withdraw or sell at a discount. This is the "I don't have to sell" demographic — dual-income professionals with equity buffers.
Chatswood — The Bellwether: Chatswood's auction market was effectively absent this week. Very few auction-day sales; multiple postponements. This is a suburb where vendors paid $2.5M–$3.5M in 2022–2024 and are refusing to accept $2.2M–$3.0M now. The standoff will persist until either rates fall or life events force sales.
Buyer's Agent Take: The Lower North Shore is a waiting game. Postponement means these properties will return in spring — possibly at lower guides if the market deteriorates further. Patience is your weapon. Track the postponed listings and re-engage in September. The vendors who postponed this week are now carrying holding costs for 3 more months — their motivation will increase.
Suburbs: Manly, Freshwater, Balgowlah, Dee Why, Narrabeen, Mona Vale, Newport, Avalon Beach
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Approx. listings | ~35 |
| Sold (auction day) | ~4 (11.4%) |
| Sold Prior | ~12 (34.3%) |
| Withdrawn | ~10 (28.6%) |
| Postponed | ~7 (20.0%) |
| Passed In | ~2 (5.7%) |
Key Signal: Prior sales dominate, but the withdrawal rate of 28.6% is elevated. Northern Beaches properties — many of which are holiday homes or investment properties — are highly rate-sensitive because they carry larger mortgages relative to rental income.
Notable: - Balgowlah: 150A Woodland St sold prior $3.85M — premium family home transacted before auction - Manly Vale: 13 Burchmore Rd sold prior $3.17M - Avalon/Newport: multiple withdrawn — holiday home segment under acute stress
Buyer's Agent Take: The Northern Beaches holiday home segment is an opportunity. Properties between $1.5M–$2.5M in Avalon, Newport, and Bilgola that are negatively geared at 6.5% rates are being quietly withdrawn. Track the withdrawn list — these vendors will reappear in spring with price reductions. The $3M+ Manly/Balgowlah family market is resilient but thin — genuine auction competition exists for A-grade properties.
Suburbs: Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills, Kellyville, Glenhaven, North Kellyville, Cherrybrook, West Pennant Hills
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Approx. listings | ~20 |
| Sold (auction day) | ~3 (15.0%) |
| Sold Prior | ~8 (40.0%) |
| Withdrawn | ~6 (30.0%) |
| Postponed | ~2 (10.0%) |
| Passed In | ~1 (5.0%) |
Key Signal: The Hills District's auction market has shrunk dramatically. Only ~20 listings this week — down from 40–50 in a normal market. Prior sales at 40% and withdrawals at 30% tell the story: vendors are either selling before auction or pulling out entirely. Investor retreat from new estates is the key dynamic.
Notable: - Glenhaven: 27 Cairngorm Av sold prior $3.063M — premium Hills acreage still transacting - Cherrybrook: 19 Bowen Cl sold prior $3.068M — school catchment premium at work - Kellyville/Bella Vista: new estates with investor-heavy ownership showing withdrawal stress
Buyer's Agent Take: The Hills District new estates (Kellyville, North Kellyville, Box Hill) are where the investor unwind is most acute. Properties purchased off-the-plan in 2021–2023 at peak prices with 2% fixed rates are now facing 6.5% variable and negative equity. Landlords who can't refinance are being forced to sell. Look for 4-bedroom family homes on 400–500sqm blocks with motivated vendors — these are 10–15% off peak and still falling.
Suburbs: Darlinghurst, Surry Hills, Paddington, Elizabeth Bay, Potts Point, Woollahra, Centennial Park
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Approx. listings | ~25 |
| Sold (auction day) | ~5 (20.0%) |
| Sold Prior | ~8 (32.0%) |
| Withdrawn | ~7 (28.0%) |
| Postponed | ~3 (12.0%) |
| Passed In | ~2 (8.0%) |
Key Signal: 28% withdrawal rate in the city fringe. This is the bifurcation in action: premium terraces in Paddington and Woollahra ($3M+) are still transacting (cash buyers), while units in Elizabeth Bay, Potts Point, and Darlinghurst ($800K–$1.5M) are being withdrawn. The unit market is being crushed by investor selling and FHB affordability constraints.
Buyer's Agent Take: Units in Elizabeth Bay and Potts Point are approaching capitulation territory. Art Deco apartments that were $1.1M–$1.3M at peak are now being withdrawn at $950K–$1.1M guides. These vendors (often investors or downsizers) are discovering a buyer pool that's 30–40% smaller than 2024. If you're a cash buyer or have strong pre-approval, this is the segment to target — the spread between vendor expectations and market reality is widest here.
Suburbs: Cronulla, Miranda, Caringbah, Gymea, Hurstville, Kogarah, Bexley, Blakehurst, Sylvania
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Approx. listings | ~30 |
| Sold (auction day) | ~6 (20.0%) |
| Sold Prior | ~10 (33.3%) |
| Withdrawn | ~8 (26.7%) |
| Postponed | ~4 (13.3%) |
| Passed In | ~2 (6.7%) |
Key Signal: St George/Sutherland is the most "normal" Sydney region — still 53% combined sold + prior, but withdrawal at 26.7% is elevated. This is the family-upgrade corridor (550–800sqm blocks, 3–4 bed houses, $1.3M–$1.8M). The buyers here are dual-income families with equity from a first home — the most resilient buyer segment.
Buyer's Agent Take: Miranda, Caringbah, and Gymea offer the best relative value in Sydney right now. These suburbs have experienced less speculative froth than the Inner West or Northern Beaches, and the family buyer pool is more stable. Target 3-bedroom houses within walking distance of train stations — the school catchment + commute equation works at current prices. Negotiate hard — vendors here are pragmatic, not emotional.
Based on individual listing extraction from Domain.com.au (400 listings analysed).
| Suburb | Listings | Sold | Sold Prior | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundoora | 10+ | 6 | 0 | Strong auction-day results — family market active |
| Cheltenham | 8+ | 4 | 1 | Middle-ring bayside steady |
| Reservoir | 10+ | 5 | 2 | Entry-level northern corridor still clearing |
| Doncaster East | 8+ | 4 | 2 | East-suburban family demand intact |
| Mount Waverley | 6+ | 3 | 1 | School catchment premium at work |
| Suburb | Listings | Sold | Withdrawn | Passed In | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camberwell | 8+ | 0 | 2 | 6 | Premium freeze — nothing sold at auction |
| Kew | 6+ | 0 | 1 | 4 | Inner east prestige in lockdown |
| Bentleigh | 6+ | 1 | 1 | 3 | Middle-ring struggling |
| Craigieburn | 8+ | 1 | 3 | 3 | North growth corridor stress |
| Mickleham | 5+ | 0 | 3 | 1 | New estate distress continuing |
Computed from individual listing extraction. Agencies require ≥5 listings for inclusion. Push-through rate = (Sold + Sold Prior) ÷ Total Listings.
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Prior | Withdrawn | Push-Through | Withdrawal % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McGrath | 18 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 61.1% | 16.7% |
| BresicWhitney | 14 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 57.1% | 14.3% |
| Ray White (various) | 45+ | 8 | 16 | 10 | 53.3% | 22.2% |
| Belle Property | 10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| The Agency | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Agency | Listings | Sold | Prior | Withdrawn | Push-Through | Withdrawal % | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Various Boutique | 12 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 25.0% | 50.0% | Over-promising to vendors |
| Stone Real Estate | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 22.2% | 44.4% | Pricing guides unreliable |
| LJ Hooker (selected) | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 30.0% | 40.0% | Check per-office performance |
Buyer's Agent Interpretation: Agency quality divergence is widening. McGrath and BresicWhitney are maintaining push-through above 55% by pricing realistically and managing vendor expectations. At the other end, agencies with 40%+ withdrawal rates are clearly over-promising to win listings, then failing to deliver. When you see an agency with 40%+ withdrawals, the vendor is almost certainly carrying an unrealistic price expectation — and will eventually capitulate. Track these properties.
| City | Vacancy Rate | Vacant Dwellings | Monthly Change | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin | 0.3% | 75 | Unchanged | Acute shortage |
| Hobart | 0.6% | 161 | ↑ from 0.5% | Acute shortage |
| Perth | 0.7% | 1,265 | ↑ from 0.6% | Acute shortage |
| Adelaide | 0.7% | 1,081 | Unchanged | Acute shortage |
| Brisbane | 0.9% | 3,124 | ↑ from 0.8% | Acute shortage |
| Sydney | 1.5% | 10,820 | ↑ from 1.3% | Below balance |
| Canberra | 1.6% | 970 | ↑ from 1.4% | Below balance |
| Melbourne | 1.6% | 8,446 | ↑ from 1.5% | Below balance |
| National | 1.2% | 37,844 | Unchanged | Structural shortage |
Key observation: Vacancy rates rose slightly in most cities (seasonal winter pattern), but all capitals remain below 2% — the threshold for a balanced rental market is 3%. The structural undersupply is intact. Sydney's 1.5% rate with 10,820 vacant dwellings sounds reasonable until you realise that's just 10,820 properties available for a city of 5.3 million with ~650,000 renter households.
| City | House Yield | Unit Yield | Investor Rate | Monthly Shortfall (on $800K loan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 3.0–3.5% | 4.2–4.8% | 6.2–6.8% | –$2,000 to –$2,500 |
| Melbourne | 3.0–3.6% | 4.5–5.2% | 6.2–6.8% | –$1,700 to –$2,200 |
| Brisbane | 3.5–4.0% | 4.8–5.8% | 6.2–6.8% | –$1,400 to –$1,800 |
| Perth | 4.0–4.5% | 5.2–6.0% | 6.2–6.8% | –$800 to –$1,200 |
| Darwin | 6.0–7.5% | 7.0–8.5% | 6.2–6.8% | Breakeven to positive |
The investor math is broken in Sydney and Melbourne. An $800K investment loan at 6.5% costs ~$5,050/month P&I or ~$4,330/month IO. Gross rent on an $800K Sydney house at 3.2% yield = ~$2,133/month. Monthly shortfall: ~$2,200–$2,900. That's $26K–$35K per year in negative cashflow per property — before rates, maintenance, insurance, and management fees. The investor class is retreating, not advancing.
Sydney: Scheduled volumes likely 750–850 (winter seasonal decline continuing). Clearance rate expected 45–50% official, 27–32% TRUE. Withdrawal rate expected 38–42%. No catalyst for improvement — RBA hold is already priced in. Winter school holidays begin late June — expect further volume decline and selective vendor withdrawals.
Melbourne: Volumes 800–900. Clearance rate 50–55% official, 33–38% TRUE. Withdrawal rate 18–22%. Melbourne's lower median provides some resilience but winter + school holidays will suppress activity.
Brisbane: Volumes 120–150. Clearance rate 15–25% official, 10–15% TRUE. Auction channel effectively non-functional. Expect agents to pivot campaigns toward expressions of interest.
Adelaide: Volumes 100–120. Clearance rate 50–60% official, 25–35% TRUE. Adelaide's small-sample auction volatility continues — don't over-interpret weekly moves.
Canberra: Volumes 70–90. Clearance rate 40–50%. The July 1 stamp duty abolition for FHBs will suppress late June activity as buyers wait for the tax saving. Expect a July bounce.
Base Case (55% probability): - RBA holds at 4.35% through August meeting - Sydney clearance rates stabilise at 45–52% official (27–33% TRUE), withdrawal rates ease slightly to 30–38% as vendors adjust price expectations - Melbourne clearance rates 50–55% (33–38% TRUE) - Sydney prices continue to drift –0.5% to –0.8% per month, cumulative –2% to –3% over winter - Melbourne prices –0.3% to –0.6% per month, cumulative –1.5% to –2.5% - Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth prices flat to slightly positive (+0.3% to +0.8% per month) as interstate migration and affordability tailwinds offset rate headwinds
Downside Case (30% probability): - Westpac's forecast materialises — RBA hikes August to 4.60% - Sydney clearance rates fall below 45% official (below 25% TRUE) - Withdrawal rates surge above 45% — widespread vendor capitulation - Sydney prices accelerate to –1.0% to –1.5% per month, cumulative –4% to –5% over winter - Melbourne prices –0.8% to –1.2% per month - Brisbane/Adelaide/Perth shift from flat to negative (–0.3% to –0.5% per month) - Distressed listings surge — SQM's May data already showed +5.1% MoM in distressed listings; this accelerates
Upside Case (15% probability): - RBA signals cuts sooner than expected (Q1 2027 instead of H2 2027) - Consumer sentiment rebounds above 90 (currently 80.6) - Sydney clearance rates recover to 55–60% official - Withdrawal rates normalise below 30% - Spring selling season arrives early with buyer confidence restored
Price Forecasts by City (Base Case):
| City | Current Median (Dwelling) | 12-Month Forecast | Forecast Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $1,282,020 | –3% to –6% | $1,205,000–$1,243,000 |
| Melbourne | $812,621 | –2% to –5% | $772,000–$796,000 |
| Brisbane | $1,126,149 | +0% to +3% | $1,126,000–$1,160,000 |
| Adelaide | $950,703 | +1% to +4% | $960,000–$989,000 |
| Perth | $1,045,000 | +2% to +5% | $1,066,000–$1,097,000 |
| Canberra | $890,555 | –1% to –3% | $864,000–$882,000 |
Key assumptions: - RBA peaks at 4.35% (base case) or 4.85% (Westpac case), then holds through mid-2027 - First rate cut Q3–Q4 2027 (CBA/NAB/ANZ consensus) - Negative gearing changes (new builds only from 2031) provide structural support to new construction while depressing existing dwelling demand - Population growth remains 1.4–1.6% annually — demand floor intact - Dwelling completions ~170,000–180,000/year vs Accord target of 240,000 — undersupply persists - Brent crude remains US$100–120/bbl — fuel-driven inflation keeps RBA cautious
Target suburbs: - Sydney: St George area (Kogarah, Bexley, Rockdale — 2-bed units $650K–$800K), Canterbury-Bankstown corridor - Melbourne: Reservoir, Preston, Coburg (2-bed units $500K–$650K), Footscray, West Footscray - Brisbane: Deception Bay, Kallangur, Redbank Plains (3-bed houses $600K–$750K) - Adelaide: Salisbury, Elizabeth, Woodville (3-bed houses $450K–$650K)
Strategy: The FHB market is the most rate-sensitive segment. Use the winter lull to negotiate hard. Vendors in the $600K–$900K range are often investors exiting — they're motivated, not emotional. Target properties that have been listed 45+ days. Leverage stamp duty concessions aggressively.
Stamp Duty Savings Available: - NSW: Full exemption up to $800K, concession to $1M — save up to $31,000 - VIC: Full exemption up to $600K, concession to $750K — save up to $31,000 - QLD: Concession up to $700K — save up to $15,925 - ACT: Full stamp duty abolition from 1 July 2026 — wait until July! Save up to $34,504 - SA: No cap — full exemption on any price for FHBs
⚠️ ACT buyers: Do not buy before July 1. The stamp duty saving is worth up to $34,504. Wait two weeks.
Target suburbs: - Brisbane: Deception Bay, Redbank Plains, Logan corridor (4-bed houses $600K–$800K, yields 4.5–5.5%) - Perth: Armadale, Gosnells, Midland (3–4 bed houses $400K–$600K, yields 5.0–6.0%) - Darwin: Northern suburbs (3-bed houses $500K–$700K, yields 6.0–7.0% — breakeven at current rates) - Adelaide: Playford, Salisbury (3-bed houses $400K–$550K, yields 4.5–5.5%)
Strategy: The investor math only works in yield-positive or near-breakeven markets. Darwin is the only capital where rental yield exceeds mortgage cost. Perth and Adelaide are close. Sydney and Melbourne are cashflow black holes — avoid unless you have strong negative gearing capacity and can absorb $2,000+/month losses.
Warning: The negative gearing grandfathering provision (existing properties grandfathered, new builds only from 2031) creates a two-speed investor market. Existing properties retain their tax status — this is creating a "never sell" dynamic among long-term holders. New builds in growth corridors face oversupply risk once the 2031 deadline approaches and developers rush to complete.
Target suburbs: - Sydney: St George/Sutherland (Miranda, Gymea, Caringbah — 4-bed houses $1.5M–$2.0M), Hills District (Castle Hill, Cherrybrook — $1.8M–$2.5M) - Melbourne: Doncaster East, Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley (4-bed houses $1.4M–$2.2M), Cheltenham, Mentone ($1.5M–$2.0M) - Brisbane: Ashgrove, Carindale, Camp Hill (4-bed houses $1.2M–$1.8M)
Strategy: This is your market. The $1.5M–$3.0M segment has the weakest auction competition right now — withdrawal rates are highest in this range because vendors have flexibility to wait. But those who must sell (divorce, deceased estate, job relocation) are price-discovering downward. Target listings that have passed in at auction or been listed 60+ days. The negotiation dynamic has shifted — buyers in this segment now have genuine leverage. Make offers 8–12% below the guide and be prepared to negotiate.
School Catchment Premium: In a falling market, school catchments provide the only reliable price floor. Properties in Cherrybrook Tech, Killara High, Cheltenham Girls, and Baulkham Hills High catchments are holding value better than non-catchment equivalents. This premium will persist regardless of rate moves.
Target suburbs: - Sydney: City fringe units (Elizabeth Bay, Potts Point — 2-bed Art Deco $1.0M–$1.5M), Lower North Shore (Neutral Bay, Cammeray — 2-bed units $1.2M–$1.8M) - Melbourne: Inner South (Brighton, Elsternwick — 2-bed units $800K–$1.3M), Inner East (Camberwell, Hawthorn — 2-bed units $700K–$1.2M) - Brisbane: Inner city (New Farm, Teneriffe — 2-bed units $800K–$1.5M)
Strategy: Downsizers are in a strong position — you're selling in a high-value segment (family home) and buying in a segment where prices have corrected harder (units/apartments). The spread is working in your favour. But sequencing matters: sell first, then buy. In this market, your family home may take 60–90 days to sell. Secure the sale before committing to the purchase. The unit market you're buying into is not going up — you have time.
| Source | Data | Frequency | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domain.com.au | Auction results (clearance rates, listings, sales, medians) | Weekly (Saturday) | Real-time |
| SQM Research | Vacancy rates, asking rents | Monthly (vacancy), Weekly (rents) | ~2–4 weeks |
| Cotality (CoreLogic) | Home Value Index, Housing Chart Pack | Monthly | ~3 weeks |
| Property Update / My Housing Market | Auction commentary, median price tables | Weekly | Real-time |
| RBA | Cash rate decisions, SoMP, lending data | 8 meetings/year | Real-time |
| ABS | Building approvals, housing finance, GDP | Monthly/Quarterly | ~6 weeks |
| Commbank / Westpac / NAB / ANZ | Economic forecasts, rate path projections | Ad hoc | Real-time |
| API Magazine | State-by-state stamp duty/FHOG guides | Updated as policy changes | Real-time |
TRUE Clearance Rate Computation: TRUE Clearance Rate = Total Sold at Auction ÷ Total Scheduled Auctions × 100
This includes all postponed and unreported auctions in the denominator, providing a more honest picture of market health than the official rate.
Deception Gap = Official Clearance Rate − TRUE Clearance Rate (in percentage points)
Auction data period: Sunday 14 June to Saturday 20 June 2026 (Domain preliminary data as at 20 June 2026).
Note on source divergence: Domain and My Housing Market (Dr. Andrew Wilson) use different methodologies and produce different clearance rates for the same week. Domain counts withdrawn auctions in the denominator; My Housing Market treats withdrawn auctions differently. This report uses Domain as the primary source with My Housing Market noted where relevant. All figures are preliminary and subject to revision as late results are reported.
This report is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Property markets are illiquid and prices can fall as well as rise. Always seek independent financial and legal advice before making property decisions.